Will The Steelers Pash Rush Weld Purdy's Feet To The Grass in Pittsburgh?

There are several areas of concern for the 49ers.

The San Francisco 49ers are a more talented team than the Pittsburgh Steelers, but that doesn't guarantee them a victory tomorrow at Acrisure Stadium, formerly known as Heinz Field.

There are several areas of concern for the 49ers:

• Right tackle. Colton McKivitz is making his first NFL start at this position and just his sixth start overall in the NFL. Steelers edge rusher TJ Watt is arguably the best pass rusher in the NFL. He usually lines up on the left side against right tackles. This was never going to be a good matchup for the 49ers, but it could have been much better if McKivitz had gotten reps with Nick Bosa all offseason. Bosa's contract holdout kept him from helping any 49ers offensive linemen from being better prepared, other than a couple of practices on Thursday and Friday of this week. We all know how great Trent Williams is, but he could have benefitted from practicing more against Bosa as well. The Steelers also have Alex Highsmith who recently became the 10th highest paid edge rusher in the NFL after recording 14.5 sacks in 2022, so McKivitz is likely to face Watt, or Highsmith, nearly every single down on Sunday.

• Quarterback. Brock Purdy had an amazing run as a rookie quarterback in 2022. He won every game that he finished healthy, but he didn't finish every game healthy. Against the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game, he tore the UCL in his throwing elbow. Since the surgery to repair his UCL, Purdy hasn't looked the same. He has thrown a lot of interceptions, dropped picks, and pick-sixes in the nine open training camp practices that I attended. He has also been sacked a lot. Perhaps the most concerning is that he has not been able to make many good deep throws. Almost every deep ball has been overthrown or underthrown. In the preseason games, Purdy did nothing but dink and dunk. He also did not throw for any touchdowns. Purdy is also not back to 100% with his practice reps. With 47% to 62% rain in the forecast, the ball is likely to be wet and heavy. I am concerned about how well Purdy's throwing elbow will hold up with a dry ball, let alone one that is wet and heavy. One way that the rain might help is if the ball is slippery. Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett's hands are only 8'5/8 inches, so gripping a wet ball could be more of an issue for him than Purdy.

• Kicker. Robbie Gould was flawless in the playoffs and near flawless in the regular season. The 49ers let Gould walk in the offseason and drafted Jake Moody in the third round of the 2023 NFL draft. Moody was unreliable in preseason games and he is also coming back from injury. It might be time for Matthew Wright, who has experience kicking in Pittsburgh, to be elevated from the practice squad.

• Nickel cornerback. The 49ers let the Houston Texans outbid them for Jimmie Ward this offseason. He was a very good safety in coverage, for hitting, and for tackling. As the 49ers' nickel cornerback, Ward had three interceptions in 2022, despite missing the first half of the season and playing several games with a club on his broken left hand. Isaiah Oliver was signed from the Falcons to replace Ward. He did not look good this offseason. Hopefully he can justify his sizable guaranteed salary for 2023. I expect to see Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir start as the boundary cornerbacks, with Oliver at nickel on base (running) downs. For nickel (passing) downs, I expect to see Ward & Ambry Thomas on the boundaries, with Lenoir as nickel cornerback. Ward is questionable with a heel injury. If he doesn't play, then I expect Lenoir and Thomas as the boundary cornerbacks, Oliver at nickel corner on base downs. Thomas & Samuel Womack as boundary cornerbacks, with Lenoir as the Nickel cornerback in Nickel. The Steelers have two huge tight ends that will challenge whomever is playing nickel cornerback for the 49ers: Pat Freiermuth is 6'5" and weighs 258 pounds. Darnell Washington is 6'7" and weighs 265 pounds.

• Tight end. George Kittle is questionable with a pulled groin. If he can't play, then this area of strength for the 49ers becomes an area of weakness. Charlie Woerner is a good blocker and solid special teams performer, but he drops too many balls. Ross Dwelley may have the best hands in the NFL, but without a running start, his blocking leaves something to be desired. Rookie seventh-round pick Brayden Willis had a great offseason as a pass catcher, but like Dwelley, his blocking isn't where it needs to be in order to do everything that is needed in Kyle Shanahan's system.

• Edge rusher. Nick Bosa signed a record 5-year, $170 million deal on Wednesday, September 6, making him the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history. Congratulations to Bosa, but that didn't leave him much time to get into football shape this week, with only two practices on Thursday and Friday. It's unclear how much or how effectively Bosa will play this Sunday. The 49ers were already light on proven talent after Bosa. That was compounded by cutting speed rusher Austin Bryant to make room for Bosa on the 53-man roster. They will be counting on rookies Drake Jackson and Clelin Ferrell to step up big time. The good news is that the 49ers added defensive tackle Javon Hargrave this offseason, which should help the entire defensive line to get less attention from the Steelers' offensive line.

Other standout Steelers players to keep an eye on:

• Safety. Minkah Fitzpatrick is one of the best in the NFL.

• Receiver. George Pickens makes circus catches that remind me of Odell Beckham Jr.

• Running back. Najee Harris is very underrated.

• Defensive tackle. Cameron Heyward had 10.5 sacks in 2022 and is one of the best in the NFL.

• Cornerback. Patrick Peterson said that he identified Purdy's tendencies and predicted that he would intercept the 49ers' starting quarterback.

The Steelers have never had a losing season under head coach Mike Tomlin. They have won 15 of their last 16 opening day games. They are not a team to be taken lightly. Meanwhile, Kyle Shanahan is 3-3 on opening days as head coach of the 49ers. Slow starts are the norm recently for his team, with a 3-5 record to start the 2021 season and a 3-4 record to start the 2022 season.

If George Kittle and Charvarius Ward play for the 49ers and Bosa plays well in limited reps, then I'm picking the 49ers to win 31-27. If any of those three don't play, or don't play well, then the Steelers could easily win.

For the 2023 season, I have the 49ers going 12-5 and winning the NFC West. They will beat the Cowboys in the NFC Championship Game. They will play the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. If they are healthy and Purdy plays like he did in 2022, or better, then they will win Super Bowl #6.