49ers Safety Malik Mustapha Is Trending Toward a Long NFL Career

Respect.

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San Francisco 49ers safety Malik Mustapha has had a strong start to his career. He was a former fourth-round pick, he tore his ACL, and yet he still has 148 tackles after two seasons and at the age of 23. When comparing Mustapha to his peers, most players who start their careers similarly to this turn out to be legitimate starters. 

Malik Mustapha is trending in the right direction for the San Francisco 49ers

Since 2010, if you look at the players that have had between 120-175 tackles, an approximate value from Pro Football Reference between 7-11, 2 sacks or fewer, and six tackles for loss or fewer, all in their first two seasons and before the age of 23, you will see a group of 20 players that Mustapha would join after this season.

The list gives a good idea of what to expect from Mustapha. There are five of these players who did not have long careers despite the fast start. Josh Evans, Justin Evans, Calvin Pryor, Matt Elam, and Amari Spievy all had shorter careers than expected for various reasons. So, Mustapha is not a sure thing to be a long-term starter despite the start to his career. 

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Then, there is Kam Chancellor and Kerby Joseph. Both of them were in this group and ended up being in All-Pro discussions. The rest have had long careers as starters or high-end depth pieces throughout their career. 

Kam Kitchens, Cole Bishop, and Javon Bullard are all still on their rookie salaries, but all are expected to get extensions soon. Dax Hill had been a legitimate starter but moved from safety to cornerback before his third NFL season. 

The other nine players include Jordan Fuller, Kenny Vaccaro, DJ Swearinger, Taylor Rapp, Jabrill Peppers, Adrian Amos, Tashaun Gipson, Darnell Savage, and Jalen Mills. Fuller has the fewest number of starts amongst that group, and it is 56 career starts. 

If you take out Hill and young players, there is about a 31% chance that Mustapha does not live up to his expectations and struggles to stick in the NFL. There is a 13% chance that he turns into a star and one of the better players at his position. Then, there is a 56% chance that he turns into a long-term starter with some ups and some downs.

The odds are good for Mustapha, and expectations are for him to maintain being a quality starter for the 49ers.