49ers Face Difficult Roster Decisions with the Trade Deadline Approaching

As 49ers general manager John Lynch makes calls around the league in search of an impact trade at the deadline, any move that calls for trading a high draft pick carries a risk. The Niners haven’t had a first-round selection since 2021 and have lost depth due to dealing out picks.

Lynch and Kyle Shanahan face a pick-your-poison choice. Go all-in for an impact player now or make a smaller move and keep the high picks in the upcoming draft. All-in would be in anticipation of a Super Bowl appearance this year. A smaller move can help now but saves the draft as the big swing.

IMPACT NOW VS. A RIGHT TACKLE LATER

Trades for impact starters like cornerback Patrick Surtain or edge Danielle Hunter carry the price of at least one first-round pick. If the Niners give that up, their best chance of getting a quality starting right tackle in the draft takes a big hit.

Kyle Shanahan’s roster blueprint calls for going cheap at right tackle. A late 1st-rounder has the talent to start at a cheap price.

Can the Niners afford to give that up? Yes, but only if they can make a trade to get into the late first or early second round of the draft where day-one starters will still be available. This draft is projected to be deep at right tackle, but there’s a steep talent drop by the mid-second round.

A plan to deal for impact at the deadline would therefore need to leave the room to make that deal into the early 2nd. The need for a right tackle is evident, Colton McKivitz through seven games is ranked as the 54th right tackle out of 58 in pass protection by Pro Football Focus. He’s a serviceable player but is essentially a backup forced into a starting role by Shanahan’s cap blueprint.

The draft is the obvious answer to what the team needs to address its biggest weakness, but giving up those picks is the path to a player the team needs to get to the Super Bowl. The only way to do both is to maintain the pieces to deal into the early 2nd, a difficult balancing act.

IS PATRICK SURTAIN WORTH TWO FIRSTS?

A shutdown corner would solve many problems. The pass rush not getting sacks, and defensive coordinator Steve Wilks not playing press-man coverage frequently, distrusting the corners.

Surtain changes that.

On a team that has invested over $90 million in a defensive line that’s in the bottom five of the league in sack rate, an upgrade in the secondary is the logical way to unlock the rush.

Denver claimed Surtain would not be made available at the deadline but the latest rumor has them willing to give him up at a steep price, two first-round picks. Should the Niners pay it?

They are unlikely to get a corner of Surtain’s ability in free agency or the draft, this is the only tangible path. Change the offer to a first-rounder and later picks in volume worth a first-rounder, such as a future 2nd, this year’s third, and change would be the hope. However, the league is in dire need of shutdown corners and Denver may be able to hold out for their ransom.

The Niners' answer may be to pursue another corner, such as Chicago’s Jaylon Johnson, but the Bears will also hold out in hopes of a bidding war. Not a first, but possibly a second. Johnson just had a pick-six this week against the Raiders.

If the bidding war hits, the Niners may move on to Donte Jackson in Carolina. A capable player at a lower price, but you also get what you pay for. What the team needs is Surtain or Johnson, the question is if they will be willing to pay the price to get one of them. My guess is no.

My call would be to ante up for Surtain with the two firsts and formulate a plan to deal into the late first or early second in the draft to get their next starting right tackle. I don't see the Niners doing either, they pass on Surtain as too steep a price to pay.

DO THE NINERS STILL NEED AN EDGE?

Randy Gregory has been solid since arriving from Denver, but greater impact talent is available. I think Brian Burns of Carolina is out of reach, the Panthers don’t want to give him up but don’t want to pay him market value either. That usually leads to a team punting and they hang on to Burns unless he can bring back an impact wide receiver like Davante Adams.

Danielle Hunter of Minnesota maybe, but after beating the Niners the Vikings may decide not to be sellers at the deadline.

That leaves Washington, who is looking to sell Chase Young and Montez Sweat. The draft price would be expensive. Is it worth it? In my view no, what’s needed most is upgrading the secondary to enable the pass rush.

Gregory has played well, and the team’s long-term need for a speed rusher is met by draft pick Robert Beal Jr. Can he be developed in time to take the field this year? Probably not, he seems to be on the rookie redshirt plan.

The Niners have grown quite fond of rookie redshirting, but that may not be wise on a team that lacks depth and has needs that could be filled by rookies at corner, linebacker, and edge.

ARE THE NINERS' SUPER BOWL CHANCES BETTER IN 2023 OR 2024?

No one wants to hear wait ‘til next year. Trent Williams is hurt and starting to show his age. Is this now or never? The deadline will tell us what Shanahan and Lynch think.

To me, the chances are clearly better in 2024, as unpopular as that may be. Answers to the key questions entering the year are coming into focus. Christian McCaffrey can be dominant but his workload needs to be managed. Colton McKivitz is not the answer at right tackle, and Spencer Burford at right guard has come into question as well.

Cleveland showed what a playoff defense can do to this offense, and Minnesota showed what a good quarterback and a solid offensive line can do to this defense. The Eagles are best positioned for the No. 1 seed, and the Niners lose the matchups on both lines. For now, 2023 is looking like a repeat of 2022, but a lot can change in the next ten games.

The draft can replace McKivitz and possibly Burford. Brock Purdy will hopefully have his first offseason to develop and add to his game. The team has the cap room to re-sign their free-agent starters. Philly will lose at least Jason Kelce to retirement and maybe Lane Johnson as well. 2024 is the Niners' best shot at a championship in my view.

If Shanahan and Lynch share that opinion, the deadline moves will reflect that. They keep the first-rounder and see if they can add Jaylon Johnson or more likely Donte Jackson, and maybe Kendrick Bourne for receiver depth. If they want to go all-in, then two firsts for Surtain is the move.

The Niners have less than a week to make the critical decisions that will impact their Super Bowl chances in 2023 and 2024.