Analyzing the 49ers Blueprint and Future

“We’ve always been of the philosophy that it starts up front.” – John Lynch after dealing for Chase Young at the deadline.

The defensive line has been the top roster priority of Lynch and Kyle Shanahan since they arrived in 2017. Three of their seven first-round picks, this year's priority signing Javon Hargrave in free agency, Drake Jackson as the top pick in the 2nd round in 2022, and now Young arrives in trade.

The monomaniacal focus on the defensive line has led to one first-round pick spent on the offensive line and no first or second-round pick spent on the secondary. For seven years.

Not coincidentally, that leads to those position groups being the least talented and thinnest on the team, and the root cause of defeats in the Super Bowl and NFC Championship. Just as an offense needs balance to succeed, so does a roster over time through the draft. Neglected positions become liabilities.

The upcoming draft offers an opportunity to address the two roster craters on the team. But Young likely leaves in free agency, so the defensive line will yet again be a top priority.

Faded Blueprint

A form of cognitive bias is anchoring, tying bias to impactful past experience. For Lynch, his front four teammates in Tampa led by Warren Sapp and Simeon Rice keyed Monte Kiffin’s defense.

The Bucs dominated defensively in the late nineties and early 2000s, culminating in a Super Bowl win in 2003. Therefore, Lynch’s massive investment in the defensive line. It worked for him so he anchors to it.

For Shanahan, his dad didn’t need high picks on the offensive line or at running back. The outside zone run-blocking scheme opened holes for Terrell Davis and led to rings in 1997 and 1998. Mike Shanahan ran Davis into the ground and it worked for him. Sound familiar?

The 49ers blueprint in 2023 is anchored to what worked in the late nineties. Therein lies the problem, a lot can change in 25 years and has.

A great pass rush can be beaten by a quick passing game if the secondary plays too soft. An offensive line of late draft picks is exposed in pass protection by superior athletes on the defensive front.

The Solution

Draft where you haven’t.

When Bill Walsh first came to the 49ers, he made significant progress on offense, but his defense would give away games due to a poor secondary. In the 1981 Draft, he restored balance to the roster by going all-in at secondary. Ronnie Lott, Hall of Famer in the first, Eric Wright All-Pro corner in the 2nd, Carlton Williamson Pro Bowl safety in the third. They would form the foundation of the defense.

Lynch and Shanahan would be wise to follow that strategy and pick several offensive linemen while sprinkling in an outside corner in the upcoming draft. Unlikely to happen.

Think Holistically

When Lynch talks about his Tampa teams, he always points to complementary football being key. The defense worked due to the front four tied to the back seven, the specific talents of each fed the other.

Surprisingly, Lynch hasn’t brought that thinking to drafting in San Francisco.

From 2017 through 2021 the Niners believed that a great pass rush would cause interceptions. During that time, the Niners were tied for last with the Jets for the fewest interceptions in football.

Then in the NFC Championship against the Rams, Jaquiski Tartt drops a gimme interception. In the offseason, the Niners added ball skills to the secondary, and the team went from last to first in picks by finally thinking holistically.

Constant investment in the defensive line won’t necessarily solve the problem of fewer sacks. Adding cornerbacks who are great in man coverage will. As defensive coordinator, DeMeco Ryans spoke of the need for the secondary to create an extra hitch for the quarterback to give time for sacks to happen.

That should be the blueprint going forward. Invest in complementary football to enable the pass rush rather than pouring everything into the pass rush and expecting results.

The same applies to the offensive line. Enable the running game and be aware that Brock Purdy with a clean pocket has astronomical numbers. Invest in Purdy and Christian McCaffrey through the offensive line. You cannot scheme around pass protection in 2023, there are too many great pass rushers now, and the athleticism gap from late-pick lineman to first-round edge is too great.

In addition, the Niners have invested heavily in veterans to the point where the only positions with cheap starters are where the craters are. So maintain the cheap position groups to deal with the cap, but upskill the talent through the draft.

Matchups Win Playoff Games

The 49ers blueprint wins regular season games but falls short of a ring. Why? Playoff games are won on matchups. The Niners' all-out investment in the defensive line is negated by the league’s best O-line in Philly. Shanahan’s scheme can’t protect the quarterback as an overmatched offensive line is destroyed by the Eagles' deep D line. Lose the key matchups lose the game.

The Niners haven’t drafted for matchups, they’ve drafted on anchoring bias. The roster blueprint isn’t just dated it’s far too insular. To beat Philly, you have to win in the trenches.

Draft where you haven’t, think holistically and the matchups are addressed. Quarterback and defensive line are your top priorities, so support them. The pass rush needs a better secondary, the quarterback needs a better offensive line.

The Niners need to resist the past and adjust the blueprint to the 2023 NFL. In the next draft that means ignoring the defensive line and addressing critical weaknesses at the offensive line and secondary in the first three picks. Get a mid-level edge in free agency and draft for roster balance.

The 1981 Draft paved the way to Super Bowl championships for Walsh, the 2024 Draft can do the same for Lynch and Shanahan.