Connecting the Dots: How to Find Holistic Solutions to the 49ers Problems

49ers Twitter and YouTube are too dug in on the quarterback debates and throwing player stats and expert opinions at each other to score points. Winning a ring needs to be the focus. Team solutions are holistic. It’s not about one player -- it’s about connecting the dots.

Lose the subjective debates at QB, apply the one test that matters

Fans and content creators debate dink and dunk, pushing the ball down the field, stats, where the QB ranks in the league, defining what is elite, ceiling vs. reality. Dump all of that. Here’s the test: The 49ers will win a ring when the quarterback forces the opposing defense out of Cover 1.

Connecting the dots: Against Dallas in the playoffs, Brock Purdy had a good stat line. 19-29 for 214 yards, no turnovers. Now connect that to Christian McCaffrey. 14 carries for 51 yards, 8 passing targets for 22 yards. Because Dallas could stay in Cover 1, they shut down CMC and the Niners only scored 19 points.

The Niners aren’t winning a ring that way. They need to force the defense into a two-man shell to then open the running game. So toss the stats, the subjective debates, it’s one test - force the defense out of Cover 1. That’s it. That’s a ring.

On Twitter, I get pushback on this from people citing Purdy stats. That’s not the point people. It’s not about Purdy’s stats, it’s about the team impact of facing a Cover 1 defense. CMC shut down. Running game limited, much harder to win a ring. But people are so dug in on defending their quarterback of choice it’s Purdy success stats. Cover 1, limited running game, no ring. “But Purdy succeeds, here are his stats!” That’s nice, does the team win a ring that way? Good luck.

Here’s what happens when the Niners offensive line can pass protect

Again pulling from the Dallas game, the Cowboys applied pressure on 48.5 percent of the 49ers dropbacks. On those plays, Purdy was 4-12 for 55 yards. Yikes.

Connecting the dots: For the game, Purdy was 19-29 for 214 yards. Connect that with the pressure stats and Purdy’s numbers with a clean pocket are nuts, 15-17 for 159 yards. If there was ever a mic drop stat on why the Niners have to take a right tackle in the first round of the 2024 Draft, there it is.

Kyle Shanahan’s objections are only first-rounders can start Day 1 at tackle. They have a first. Well, we need someone who has played right tackle. Luckily for the Niners, this draft has three elite tackles that played on the right side last year, and one will play right again this year.

Fans on Twitter want a replacement for Trent Williams instead. “Well, he might retire.” The entire point of this is they need two elite tackles, bookends, great pass protection, and a clean pocket. They can draft a right tackle who can move left. Or if Williams retires, they can use the cap savings to sign a replacement. Or they can draft a right tackle and a left tackle in this draft.

The key is, they need two elite tackles, not just one. That’s what has to change. Unless you’re fine with Dallas getting pressure on nearly half the snaps and Philly almost two-thirds.

The Purdy injury play illustrates the danger of system over people

Brock Purdy play-action seven-step dropback. Start with wrong assumptions. No. 1 that the play-action will hold the edge, Philly’s scheme was to ignore play-action and just rush the passer. No. 2 that Purdy would step up to avoid pressure. His instinct is not to step up because he’s short and can’t see the field that way, and he escaped pressure all year by scrambling out the backend left.

Then the matchup, a tight end off the inactive list the prior week in Tyler Kroft against 2nd team All-Pro Haason Reddick. Yes, other teams have tried that, but the matchup predicts failure.

Connecting the dots: The play design works on paper, and did on the field in scheming a receiver open. But it failed due to the assumptions breaking down. The human element was ignored. Reddick didn’t buy the fake, blew by Kroft, and Purdy predictably did not step up. Bang.

This is the team in microcosm. In theory, the team succeeds if it executes the play design perfectly. But player strengths and weaknesses factor in, ability levels and matchups, instincts, and the human element impacts the execution and injury risk.

Shanahan is brilliant in scheming players open, designing and sequencing plays, seeing what a defense is doing, and knowing what he can call on the fly to beat it. His genius label in those areas is well-earned. But he assumes his play fakes will be bought and assumes the execution.

Assumptions also carry over in his team blueprint.

He assumes the team can win without elite pass protection at both tackles if the quarterback executes. Doesn’t hold up against elite playoff defenses and with protection the quarterback stats are impressive.

He assumes the team can play a very physical style on both ends and roll up the wins. They win once the offense is in rhythm, but the Niners are one of the ten most injured teams in the league every year, in part due to that playing style.

Shanahan assumes process my system and manage my tough love coaching style and we’ll win. As Grant Cohn pointed out, the backup quarterbacks are now in a check-down competition and appear to be losing confidence in themselves.

Shanahan plays to his strengths, those are things he does alone - play design and sequencing. The human element is not a strength of his. That needs to be acknowledged and addressed if the team is to win a championship.

The problem is, there’s no one above Shanahan in the football operation to tell him, "No." John Lynch works for Shanahan. Jed York is content with the status quo because it fills the stands and sells season tickets. In the mix but ringless marches on.

In my view, while Lynch doesn’t have the organizational authority, he has the personal authority as a Hall of Famer, Super Bowl champion, and well-respected natural leader to address this one-on-one with Shanahan. The Niners are close, but final changes are needed.

Of my eight barriers to a championship, four require changes from Shanahan. I think some obvious and needed changes will happen, such as drafting a right tackle next year. The tougher changes are within, a shift in mindset, they’re difficult but can lead to the elusive sixth championship.