Jim Mora Jr.'s Scouting Report of Trey Lance

The 49ers will decide which player to draft with the No. 3 pick this Thursday.

So far, former 49ers defensive coordinator has analyzed two options -- Justin Fields and Mac Jones.

Here's his scouting report of Trey Lance.

MORA Jr.: "He's the unknown. He didn't play a lot. He only had 17 starts. The talent is undeniable. The ability to throw the ball, his size, his stature, the production when he does play -- all those things are obvious. They're not in dispute.

"What's in dispute is the number of games that he has played and the sample size you're evaluating. He's a projection. He will be best served going to a team where he can sit and learn. That doesn't happen a lot in the NFL. Now listen, if the 49ers draft him and Jimmy Garoppolo stays and he can sit behind Jimmy and learn, then that's probably a good thing for him.

"But to me, it's a scary pick. These coaches, they're going to go to the workout and see him throw on air, throw with accuracy and strength and timing and touch and become very enamored, but do they have to enough film to truly project whether he can be a franchise quarterback? That's a decision every franchise is going to have to make for themselves. I can't sit here and tell you that everybody thinks the same way. I think some have great conviction that this can be the guy, and there are some that go, 'Man, I don't know.' And if there's a little bit of, 'Man, I don't know,' you don't take a guy that high. If there's any hesitation, you pass."

Q: Lance seems like the kind of quarterback that scouts would like because you project his potential. But I've talked to lots of coaches who say, 'Potential gets you fired.'

MORA Jr.: "Absolutely. There are studies out there about guys who have come into the league with minimal amounts of starts, and what their success ratio is when they come into the NFL, and it's not a great success ratio. There's some hesitation there for me. But I have so much confidence in John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan that if Lance is the pick, I'm going to say they know a hell of a lot more than me. They did their research. So I will say that was the right pick, because it's the pick they have conviction about, and they know more than any of us. They know things about these guys that you and I could never imagine."

Q: Lance certainly lacks experience, but does the fact he played at North Dakota State, and ran a pro-style offense, and had autonomy at the line of scrimmage to make decisions, and the fact that he didn't turn the ball over -- are those things that intrigue you about him?

MORA Jr.: "Yeah, without a doubt. You look at his TD to INT ratio. Does he take a sack or does he throw it away and live to play another down? Is he a winner? What kind of offense was he in? Who's coaching him now in the offseason? How much progress has he made since he has been working with this coach? Those are things that can give you a lot of confidence when you're making the pick. And again, I have so much confidence in Kyle and John, rather than being skeptical of the pick, I would say, 'Boy, they knew something I didn't know.'"