Game Preview: 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

The most important game of the year. That will be true for each 49ers matchup over the next three weeks: Seattle, Philadelphia, and Seattle.

With a win in Seattle, the Niners virtually clinch the division tiebreaker over the Seahawks due to division record. More importantly, if San Francisco can sweep Seattle, they’ll win the division prior to the final week of the season. That would allow the 49ers to rest starters against the Rams in the final week before the playoffs. Getting that makeshift bye could be critical to the Niners playoff chances.

The 49ers may get Aaron Banks back for this game but could lose Spencer Burford. Seattle finally gets Abraham Lucas back at tackle after he suffered an injury in the first week. Pete Carroll says he expects Geno Smith to start despite a triceps contusion. Kenneth Walker III has an oblique strain and will likely miss the game.

The weather at game time is expected to be clear and cold, just a 7% chance of rain with temps in the low 40s at kickoff.

WHEN SEATTLE HAS THE BALL

Lucas returning will give a nice bump to the run game and pass protection, he may be in a rotation or on a snap count.

Geno Smith was hurt last week but played in the final drive against the Rams and was solid. He’s in the middle of the pack in most NFL ratings but one surprising weakness is accuracy, 27th in on target throws.

The biggest threat to the Niners is D.K. Metcalf. He has a successful history against Charvarius Ward, size on Deommodore Lenoir, and can take Ambry Thomas deep. Metcalf has produced nearly 100 yards receiving in each of his last two games. In last year’s playoff game, Metcalf had 10 catches for 136 yards and two touchdowns.

The Niners secondary will have their hands full with the Seahawks receivers, Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and rookie Jaxson Smith-Njigba.

Rushing the ball, Walker may sit so Zach Charbonnet gets an opportunity. When he had to step in after Walker got hurt, Charbonnet struggled last week with 15 carries for 47 yards. However, with an improved line and reps as the starter in practice he should be ready for this one. Charbonnet is targeted in the passing game but only near the line of scrimmage.

The Niners pass rush has had success against Smith, who lacks pocket awareness and can make mistakes in a crowded pocket. I’ll be looking to see if Steve Wilks utilizes Ji’Ayir Brown in blitz packages.

Seattle gave up 19 pressures to the Rams last week, and can struggle in assignments against blitz fronts.

WHEN THE NINERS HAVE THE BALL

Brock Purdy is playing the best football of his career. Seattle has the best young cornerback duo in the league in Riq Woolen and top-five overall pick Devon Witherspoon.

Cleveland gave Purdy trouble with press-man coverage. Woolen and Witherspoon can do the same, if Pete Carroll and defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt call it, but Seattle prefers a soft zone that floods the field and limits the passing windows.

If the Seahawks corners shut down Brandon AIyuk and Deebo Samuel, Purdy can look for George Kittle, who has an edge against the Seattle linebackers that can be beat in pass coverage. Kittle had 93 yards and two touchdowns in Seattle last year in prime time. He should have a productive game in this matchup.

The Seattle defense was playing well this year until linebacker Uchenna Nwosu went down for the season. Boye Mafe has stepped up in his second year at edge with seven sacks and a forced fumble. Leonard Williams only has one sack and seven tackles since he was acquired in trade.

Christian McCaffrey had great success in the wild card playoff matchup, running for 119 yards on 15 carries. Samuel had 33 yards rushing and 133 receiving including a 74-yard touchdown. The Seattle defensive scheme can be beaten in YAC, they rank 23rd and have given up 124 yards per game after the catch. Against the run they’re 16th at 4.1 yards per carry.

STAT OF THE GAME

Seattle rushing yards. They need balance to set up the passing attack. When they rush for over 100 yards, they’re 5-0, under they’re 1-4.

PREDICTION (MY RECORD 7-3)

I had the point spread right last week and was six points off the total score.

The Niners need to come out of this game witn no new injuries, but that can be tough to do on a short week.

Thursday night games tend to be sloppy but given the importance of this matchup I think both teams will push through that. Seattle being a much younger team should recover better on the short week, but the Seahawks have a hurt Geno Smith and probably no Kenneth Walker.

Seattle has the personnel to play as Cleveland did in the secondary, but Carroll probably goes with what had early success in the playoff game and they focus on flooding the field. Purdy then struggled to beat it early, Purdy now can find the open man and I expect Kittle to play well.

If Carroll and Hurtt surprise with press-man that can be successful for them early in the game until the Niners adjust.

The Niners need to establish McCaffrey to set up play-action and then Purdy can go to work. Same ol’.

On defense, one of the keys is to crowd the pocket and pressure Smith into bad decisions. He can miss blitzes and the line isn’t always adept at picking it up. Wilks should pick his spots on key 3rd and long situations to send or show blitzes.

Metcalf is a problem. Pay him too much attention and the Seahawks can go to Lockett and Smith-Njigba. Not pay him enough and he’ll get a deep touchdown as he did in the playoff game. Given the history, Metcalf should have a big game.

I see the Niners having early success, the Seahawks coming back with their receivers, and the Niners slowly outexecuting Seattle to pull away. Once Seattle has to abandon the run, then the Niner pass rush can get to Smith and seal the game.

49ers 27 Seattle 17