The 49ers Emperor Has No Clothes

Kyle Shanahan has tossed in the towel on Trey Lance. Given up. Not that this comes as a surprise, Shanahan dropped a major hint when he signed Sam Darnold early in free agency. Lance was a no-show at camp on Thursday and the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero reported that the Niners now hope to trade Lance.

The Lance Experiment is over in Santa Clara and blew up in Shanahan’s face, putting into serious question whether Shanahan can evaluate and develop quarterbacks.

Shanahan schemes receivers wide-open for his quarterbacks, but does he have the separate skillset to evaluate and develop a quarterback? 49ers CEO Jed York needs to answer that and react accordingly.

Big picture the Lance trade won’t matter if the Niners keep making the Final Four, but did the trade already take a Lombardi Trophy off the shelf? Some argue yes. I prefer to deal with the here and now and ask now what?

This series of crippling mistakes has to be addressed. One of the worst trades in NFL history can’t just be ignored.

Kyle Shanahan needs to be stripped of personnel control.

Shanahan is the defacto GM, John Lynch works for him. A possible remedy is clean, but whether Jed York would do it or Shanahan accept it is far less clear. Name Lynch Team President, make Adam Peters General Manager with full personnel control, and Shanahan is Head Coach and Offensive Coordinator only, contributing to personnel decisions solely in an advisory capacity.

Is that move warranted? Let’s review.

The trade was a huge mistake structurally.

Forget who was taken for the moment. High draft picks are among a contender’s most valuable assets. A win-now team with an expensive top-heavy roster needs cost-controlled impact players on the field.

Dealing those picks away makes roster building more difficult. The margin for error gets much smaller.

In theory, the Niners traded away Micah Parsons, Jalen Pitre, and Sam LaPorta for at best a conditional 4th round pick. Oops.

In practice, they would have taken Mac Jones instead of Parsons, but the larger point remains, three No. 1s are giving starters away on a team where depth is dwindling.

Some argue keeping the picks wouldn’t have mattered since quarterback is still a question mark. I argue picks don’t matter when the Niners have the lethal combination of unreliable pass protection and an inexperienced or slow quarterback. The unstable line makes the quarterback worse, and the inexperienced quarterback makes the line worse. Who authored that death spiral? Shanahan.

Kyle’s first mistake was offering the three No. 1s to begin with. I expect the initial plan was to package those picks for DeShaun Watson until his legal trouble hit. They should have kept the focus on acquiring a veteran.

Shanahan makes impulsive personnel decisions.

The decision to get a new quarterback was reported by some as a reaction to Jimmy Garoppolo’s Super Bowl failure. Impulse buy, trade up in the draft. Take Lance. Sour on Lance. Impulse sale.

The Shanahan Era has been defined by impulse at quarterback. Garoppolo wins five games, he gets the biggest contract in the league. Brock Purdy wins seven games, he’s the real deal franchise quarterback. Win now and you’re golden. Lose and you’re out. Impulse both ways. That usually ends badly for a GM and his team.

The flip side of impulse buying is impulse selling. Crater Lance’s value and then deal him? You’ll get pennies on the dollar. The impulsiveness of a head coach is part of why nearly all NFL teams choose not to combine coach and GM. It’s time the Niners joined them.

Shanahan’s evaluation mistake cost the team three No. 1s and a starting quarterback.

Why did Kyle Shanahan take a project quarterback for a win-now team? Blaming Jimmy Garoppolo and rumor has it, taking the advice of his father. Some report that it was Mike Shanahan who recommended Lance to his son.

Every GM needs a wise gray-haired sounding board. Unfortunately for Shanahan, his father is not the one to fill that role. Bill Walsh had the savvy wisdom of John McVay, one of the most underrated figures in 49er history. Shanahan thinks he has that person in his dad, but now the Lance trade hangs over them like a cloud.

I believe John McVay would have pointed to Lance’s lack of reps and said you can’t take this kid he needs too much time. Other GMs said as much, albeit off the record, at the time the pick was made.

The pairing of Kyle and his father failed with the Trey Lance pick. It would remain in place if Kyle kept personnel control. John Lynch was reportedly in favor of drafting Justin Fields, but Shanahan has the final say. Can the Niners afford to keep rolling with the status quo?

The evaluation process itself seemed woefully incomplete. The primary skillset of the Shanahan offense at quarterback is “see it, throw it” processing and decision-making. Was that evaluated in Lance before he was picked? Doesn’t seem so. It’s his primary weakness and you don’t discover that in evaluation to rule him out?

Lance's initial mechanics and zero interception caution don’t set off a red flag? Massive mistakes were made in the evaluation. Double whoppers with cheese.

The wasted draft picks.

The rite of spring. The Niners get to the 2nd or 3rd round of the draft and Kyle gets his pick. It’s Dante Pettis, Jalen Hurd, or Trey Sermon. Shanahan picked Deebo Samuel so give him full credit for that, but the track record otherwise is poor, his picks are the Island of Misfit Toys. Every Niner fan cringes in the 2nd and 3rd, with good reason.

Now Lance finds himself on the island, due to Shanahan’s shoddy evaluation, lack of development, and overall lack of patience. I believe Lance will succeed elsewhere with time.

Shanahan never had time, which was why Lance should not have been picked, but there’s no one in the organization to tell Kyle no.

That needs to change. Not because Shanahan is dumping Lance, but because he made mistakes in every step of the process.

There are also some integrity and leadership questions in how Shanahan has handled this, but that's for another column.

Shanahan has been given his chance and failed. Seven years in and the quarterback still isn't resolved. The Niners need to react to this. Take away Shanahan’s personnel control.