The 49ers Present and Future At Quarterback

An up-and-down showing for Trey Lance, an up-and-down camp and scrimmage for Brock Purdy, does it mean anything, and what’s next?

Brock Purdy
One of the subtle keys behind Brock Purdy’s success last year was post-draft work on his mechanics that added extra velocity to his ball. That enabled him to better complete throws into tight windows and play with growing confidence.

Coming off the elbow surgery, it seems that Purdy is back to where he was before the velocity work, his fastball reportedly has lost some zip. By Purdy’s own evaluation, he thinks he’s at 85% right now. He’s been medically cleared for full practices with no rest days, how long will it take him to get to 100%?

The next evaluation will come in the final exhibition game against the Chargers. The Niners hope to see a return of 2022 Purdy. If that happens, they can start the season at full efficiency, if not, then the Niners will need to lean on short throws and the running game against Pittsburgh.

My expectation is Purdy will be fine, but the timing is cutting it close.

Trey Lance
While Lance’s detractors are busily buying tombstones, they may want to check in with Kyle Shanahan first, who liked that Lance was willing to “let it rip” on the touchdown play and cited his progress in “playing faster with more aggression.”

Lance didn’t play well, his timing was off, and he needs to eliminate hesitation to be the “see it, throw it” quarterback Shanahan’s system requires. The problem is the judgment to do that requires reps and they are in short supply.

Lance’s first game back in nearly a year looked it, he needs reps to get back in a flow. Once he did in the Raiders game, he closed well at 8-11.

That said, until Lance does progress to see it, throw it, he won’t play except for injury. How many reps does Lance need to eliminate hesitation? No one knows, but Shanahan can take his time finding out.

Trey is under contract for two more years, the reported trade offers have been underwhelming, and after last year it’s wise to keep three viable quarterbacks on the roster. There’s no reason to expect a Lance departure this season.

As I’ve said often, the best offer for a quarterback in a post-draft trade in the last five years is a conditional fourth-round pick. Will the Niners accept that for Lance? I doubt it. His trade window will open again before the next draft, and Lance's fate will depend on what offers are made.

Lance didn’t play that well in Las Vegas but it was his first game back and a snapshot. His future will be evaluated over the course of the year not just the first exhibition game.

“The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.” – Mark Twain

Sam Darnold
Darnold had some great passes, particularly a perfectly thrown ball to Ronnie Bell for a 37-yard gain. Reports indicate he’s over-dependent on his first read and needs to unlearn some bad habits. At this point in his career, Darnold is what he is, a quarterback with great arm talent but a history of turnovers.

As a one-year contract player, I don’t expect Darnold to be part of the Niners' long-term plans. He'd be too expensive as a backup to Purdy and should have an opportunity to start elsewhere.

Looking Ahead to 2024
Naturally, this depends on the team’s success in 2023. Win a Super Bowl under Purdy and he’s the franchise quarterback. Lose in the NFC Championship or earlier and the question is what caused the Niners to fall short?

In my view, the team’s pass protection is not good enough to get past Philadelphia. The Eagles brought a 61.9% pressure rate against the Niners in last year's NFC Championship.

If that’s the case, the defeat isn’t on Purdy, but Shanahan may still see an opportunity to upgrade. Kirk Cousins is a free agent with a history in the system under Shanahan, and he can make every throw to optimize the Niner weapons fully.

The Niners can restructure contracts to pursue Cousins - if they chose to do so. Even with Shanahan saying Purdy is “the real deal,” all will depend on whether Shanahan thinks he needs to upgrade at quarterback to win a championship. I think Cousins cannot be ruled out as an option.

If they sign Cousins, Lance would likely be dealt before the draft with Purdy as the backup.

One note worth mentioning on Purdy next season - provided he’s healthy at the end of the year, Purdy will have his first opportunity for offseason development and should see a jump heading into his third season.

The Draft
Another possibility is the team looks to draft a quarterback early to develop behind Purdy. One player I’ve talked up before that’s projected for the late first is Michael Penix Jr. of Washington, who can hit the short throws and is accurate deep with a very strong arm.

The concern with Penix is his injury history, including multiple season-ending injuries at Indiana. While he’s elusive in the pocket, he’s not a runner. The main positive is he can make every throw, and he’s the primary reason UW is 10th in the pre-season rankings. Like Purdy, Penix is an older player at 23 with a lot of experience, over 1,000 throws in college. He had a rating of 151.3 last year, 31 touchdowns and 8 picks for 4,641 yards at a 65% completion rate with a long of 84.