Cashing in on Bears and Packers

No more honest an evaluator of the weekly Bears challenges exists than cornerback Jaylon Johnson.

He summed it up fairly well for both fantasy football owners and those going to the betting window or clicker.

Addressing the issue of Aaron Rodgers' struggles with a new receiver corps in Green Bay's Week 1 loss, Johnson had to be realistic.

"He is one of the greats. And he's going to figure out a way," Johnson said. "And I feel like those guys (receivers) are only going to get better."

It's why the Bears can pull off the biggest upset win they've had possibly in decades one week and then come in a 9 1/2-point underdog at Lambeau Field.

The interesting aspect of last week's win was the rain made it impossible for fantasy owners to derive anything from that game other than two Justin Fields touchdown throws, and even those hoping to gain from the running backs on treacherous field found no success.

The Bears trailed but not enough for the 49ers to be in a shell defense and allow underneath catches to Darnell Mooney, one way he built up so many catches last year. The same was true for Cole Kmet.

They just had to gut it out with basic plays and the numbers were down.

Something similar happened to Rodgers last week without the weather. The combination of his own defense being unprepared to stop Justin Jefferson early, and the issues with the receiver corps and a makeshift offensive line combined for a scenario the veteran Packers quarterback has rarely faced since Matt LaFleur became coach.

Order in the NFL tends to be restored from week to week.

Here are your top fantasy plays from Bears and Packers and also the best way to play the betting lines.

Fantasy Outlook

Who to Play

1. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers

The Bears couldn't move the ball early last week and that's what it takes to put Rodgers in a hole so he cannot dictate the game. Why would it be different this week on better footing against a defense with a better secondary than the 49ers have? Rodgers won't face that early deficit, will be able to rely on the running game and can throw it to his backs if his struggling receivers can't get open.

2. Packers RB Aaron Jones

Both in terms of receiving and rushing, the Packers back should be able to contribute greatly. Jones got only eight touches last week because the Packers were in comeback mode, and only five were on rushes. That's going to change greatly. The Bears experienced all kinds of failure stopping the run last week and the most dependable targets for any quarterback in the passing game against a cover-2 based scheme is a running back or tight end. It's how Peyton Manning beat a similar Bears defensive scheme in Super Bowl XLI. Backs will run and backs will catch against this Bears defense in Week 2. Jones has averaged 5.29 yards a carry or more in three of the last four games against the Bears and this scheme is easier to run against than the old Bears 3-4 was, or the Vikings 3-4 was last week.

3. Packers RB AJ Dillon

The Packers seem to have discovered Dillon can play a part in the passing game. Initially, there were questions coming into the NFL whether he could do this but he had five receptions last week and also had more carries than Jones. The Bears' scheme is particularly susceptible to big backs like Dillon. More runs, more catches this week. 49ers ball carriers, QB Trey Lance excluded, averaged 6.2 yards a carry in the first half last week for 15 attempts. Gaining yards on the ground against the Bears could be simple for both Packers running backs.

4. Bears WR Darnell Mooney

The underneath stuff will be there this week once the Bears have fallen behind, and Fields will be forced to take it. Mooney will be the main target then and moving to different receiver positions within the offense.

At Your Own Risk

5. Packers WR Allen Lazard

If he's able to play, and it appears he might, then it will make a big difference for Rodgers. He doesn't have many receivers he has complete confidence in at this point but Lazard has been there in the past as part of the attack and had 40 catches last year. Plus, he's 6-foot-5 and throwing over 6-foot Roquan Smith in the zone will be easier for a target over the middle or on slants and skinny posts with a taller receiver. When the Packers do throw on the Bears, look for those quick, timing patterns on slants or if they get time to throw, cover-2 beaters dropped in along the sideline to open space. The issue here is whether he plays because of the ankle injury.

6. Bears TE Cole Kmet

Forget the one target and no catches of last week. The Bears went to Kmet as a blocker and as a decoy to try and get open space for wide receivers in the secondary. He'll be more of a target and against Green Bay he averages 3.8 catches for four games. The problem for the Bears is, just as with Mooney, these throws will be under the coverage after they trail.

7. Bears RB David Montgomery

Normally Montgomery wouldn't be one to consider, going against a strong defensive front with Kenny Clark, who has dominated the Bears in the past. But one thing about Montgomery is he rarely has had two bad games in succession and last week was a total non-factor except as a blocker and on one screen pass as a receiver. There could be some catch-up yards and catches for Montgomery in this one, just like with Mooney and Kmet.

8. Bears QB Justin Fields

Unless you're looking for that underneath passing yardage against the Packers zone while they lead the game, or one TD pass, it's probably not advisable to expect much from Fields. He could be forcing the ball into some tight spaces or ill-advised areas in this one.

Who to Sit

9. Packers WR Christian Watson

Keep him there until he proves otherwise. Mr. Bungles.

10. Bears WR Equanimeous St. Brown

Or any other Bears receiver. They all showed they can block well last week, but none have shown an ability to get open for more than one play.

Defense

The Packers defense should be a big play in any league using team defenses. The Bears can't even hope to have a scheme advantage here as Luke Getsy's offense is an offense the Packers see every day in training camp.

Individually, Roquan Smith showed enough last week to make him a good play in an IDP league every week. That was a 49ers offense capable of challenging him in a few ways but the field conditions and running ability of Trey Lance kept the Bears from gambling and showing off Smith as a blitzer. They might be able to do a little more of this against Rodgers, who is still quick-footed at 38 years old, but is 38 nonetheless.

The best IDP selection in this one is Adrian Amos. The Packers safety has always punished the Bears since leaving there as a free agent, and more importantly, he had a rare terrible first outing against Minnesota. He can be counted on to bounce back.

Bears Best Bets

Bears and Packers for the Gamblers

The Line: Packers by 9 1/2 (Over/under 41 1/2)

BearDigest Pick: Packers 31, Bears 16

The true problems the Bears will face this season against many better teams will be more apparent this week, as Green Bay runs at will, then finds play-action easier to accomplish. Point production for Justin Fields will be in scrambling and throwing passes off schedule, not exactly the way to be competitive in a game on a drier field.

Props to Consider:

The over on Rodgers' touchdown passes. The over/under is 1 1/2. He has thrown two or more in four straight games against the Bears, and in seven of the last 11 games against them.

The over on Aaron Jones' receiving yards. It's 31 1/2. It's true he has gone six straight games under that total, but going against a Bears defensive scheme that generally will leave the underneath yardage on catches for backs will be too much for Rodgers to resist. He'll take what the Bears give him and Jones' receiving yards will benefit.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven