Bear Digest

Bears Need More Than Offer They Can't Refuse

Analysis: Getting Bears to trade away the top pick in this year's draft is going to take a great deal more than the old Jimmy Johnson trade value chart.
Gene Chamberlain|
Bears Need More Than Offer They Can't Refuse
Bears Need More Than Offer They Can't Refuse

In this story:

Chicago Bears

A proposed trade by one veteran NFL insider, and not actual teams, is gaining support largely from a disgruntled group of Bears fans.

Those would be Justin Fields followers.

There are actually two trades involved and they were the brainstorms of NFL Media analyst Daniel Jeremiah, a former NFL scout. If the Bears did either, presumably Fields would get to keep his job in Chicago. Although, it's also possible they could trade him and draft a different quarterback with either fictional deal.

Neither deal proposed by Jeremiah is actually a good idea for the Bears, but at least for a few minutes they did seem to placate the group of fans on social media who are totally beside themselves over the possibility the Bears will trade Fields.

Jeremiah, who scouted for the Browns, the Eagles and Ravens, believes the Bears' asking price if they want to move down from No. 1 in a deal with Washington and not draft Caleb Williams is the Commanders' second overall pick, a first-round pick next year, a third-rounder this year and a fifth-rounder.

The other trade was one back with New England, which gives the Bears the third pick overall, then a second-rounder this year, a first-rounder next year and a third-rounder in 2026.

The picks are not accomplished through some super secret formula or keen insight. They simply use the NFL trade value chart like the one Jimmy Johnson developed decades ago.

Jeremiah put these trades out there during the combine on the NFL Network's telecast with Rich Eisen and they're insufficient.

The problem with these proposed deals is they don't give the Bears enough compensation, and this is based entirely on Jeremiah's own past argument. He said in an earlier talk with Eisen while discussing a trade back by New England to No. 6: "When you're talking about a quarterback there's a premium."

In other words, a premium fee is tacked on because it's a quarterback involved. Neither of these trades Jeremiah offered up had that premium attached.

In the Bears' case, both of those trades involve the first pick of the draft and it's a quarterback. So there needs to be a premium.

Merely squaring off the points at 3,000 for the first pick of the draft on a chart isn't sufficient.

What's the premium he himself suggested? It's unclear but possibly another Day 2 pick.

Either way, the biggest problem with these suggested prices for a trade down is neither one takes into account that the Bears really want to draft Williams and keep him.

This hasn't been reported but comments made by GM Ryan Poles and coach Matt Eberflus at the combine earlier this week seemed to point this way.

If a team is intent on taking a quarterback at No. 1, the price of taking them off this trade and moving back really needs to skyrocket. The team moving up is going to need to overpay well beyond some surcharge or premium.

It's basically a case where the team that really wants the first pick is going to need to keep adding on picks or players until the Bears finally say "OK."

Last year the Bears got DJ Moore, the Panthers' ninth pick in Round 1, a second-round pick, this year's top pick and a 2025 second-round pick. It should start here simply to move back  to No. 2

It would only make sense, because of how the pick is being valued by teams and also by the Bears, that the asking price to move back to No. 2 or 3 starts with what the Bears received to move back to No. 9 last year.

After all, the Bears did not really value that pick in 2023 the way they do this one. They were entirely satisified Fields would do the job and they didn't think either C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young were as good as he is.

Times have changed and it's now the top pick they're counting on.

So anyone who wants Williams should come with a stack of draft picks and remember what the Bears got last year, then start adding on.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

Home/GM Report