Free Agency on Offensive Side: Toughest Bears Decisions
Free agency approaches with some teams feeling great hope and others trepidation.
The Bears fall in the latter group. The dividing point is how much money a team has to use when March 15 hits, and the period for tampering begins.
For the Bears, the decisions start coming a little earlier as a team with great salary cap issues. On Feb. 24 they are $2.5 million over the cap per Overthecap.com and will be restructuring current contracts or cutting players to get in position so they have enough cash available to form the roster.
This is all going to begin with their first big issue—Allen Robinson's fate. They don't have the money, can find it within their own salary cap structure, but the issue is whether they can find enough to retain Robinson while also enlisting needed quarterback help.
Here are their 2021 offensive free agents, with projected retention and departure.
Retention
WR Allen Robinson — Simply letting Robinson leave in free agency is the one option which makes the least sense after they invested heavily in him in the past and he produced. After making 23% of the team's receptions last year, Robinson could very well be tagged and traded because of his value. He also could simply be retained on the tag while a long-term deal is eventually achieved. It's possible the cash-strapped Bears would need to come up with a deal exceeding $20 million per year to sign him. He'd be paid $18 million under the franchise tag in 2021. Robinson is coming off his best overall Bears season with 102 catches for 1,250 yards, and earned Pro Football Focus' praise as the wide receiver who had the NFL's most contested catches over the last three seasons (65), 10 more than second-place Michael Thomas.
A true X-receiver type, Robinson wows no one with his speed but his leaping ability along the sidelines, excellent hands and route running make his game dangerous. The 6-foot-2, 220-pounder will be 28 when the season starts and has yet to play with a high-level passer. Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Mitchell Trubisky, Chase Daniel, Nick Foles and Tyler Bray are the passers who have thrown to him in the NFL.
The Bears really have no one on the roster comparable, so if Robinson left in free agency they would need to look hard for a replacement. Because of the cost, the answer likely would be in the draft.
The uncertainty at quarterback is interlocked with a decision on Robinson.
T/G Germain Ifedi — First he proved he could play guard again by being effective without penalties, then did it at right tackle where he had struggled greatly with Seattle. They have a useful player who played for only $910,000, so if they want to keep a 6-5, 329-pound blocker the will need to come up with some cash. The amount of interest could be held down by Ifedi's past penalty troubles. He had a massive 49 penalties in four seasons with Seattle and committed only five last year starting full time for the Bears at two positions, thanks largely to his commitment and the work of line coach Juan Castillo. Keeping him depends on how they plan to use him. They expect James Daniels back to start at one guard spot and have Cody Whitehair. They don't need guards but can use versatility like Ifedi has. Although Ifedi played better at tackle than in the past, his strength seems at guard. If they could be certain he'd be a long-term answer at right tackle it would be a worthwhile signing. Either way, the possibility the price could be down enough will likely keep him in Chicago because even if they draft a tackle they will need someone to play there until the rookie is ready and Bobby Massie's $7.9 million cost is too easy to cut from their payroll to assume he'd be back instead of Ifedi.
Departures
QB Mitchell Trubisky — The much-maligned fifth-year quarterback finished a 2020 season of great ups and downs. He won the starting QB job over Nick Foles, got benched in the third quarter during a Week 3 26-23 win over Atlanta, returned for the 11th game of the year and later ended a six-game losing streak as he led the Bears to wins in three straight to make the playoffs.
At 27 for next season, Trubisky is coming off his best year at completion percentage (67%) and had his second-highest passer rating (93.5). He had 16 TD passes to eight interceptions for 10 games, including nine starts. He also had the NFL's second-worst completion percentage in passes thrown beyond the line of scrimmage, according to Pro Football Focus (46.2%). The worst average belonged to Carson Wentz (45.4%). In 2019 he tied for the NFL lead at throwing interceptions in the red zone (4).
Trubisky was 29-21 as Bears starter and had his fifth-year option declined last year, although his key overall career statistics are much better (87.2 passer rating, 64% completions, 64 TDs, 37 INT) than any other quarterback who had a fifth-year option declined. Trubisky took up $7.2 million in cap space. He is projected by Spotrac.com to have a market value of $8.3 million annually.
It wouldn't be shocking if Trubisky returned because of the cost and his system knowledge but it would only come if they'd exhausted other avenues to improve.
TE Demetrius Harris — A third tight end brought to the team because of his system knowledge from earlier years in Kansas City, and because he was also to help mentor Cole Kmet. Harris wasn't really a contributor much on offense with seven catches on 14 targets and played a role in special teams. The Bears do like his blocking ability. At 30 now in 2021, he has made 79 career receptions as a backup but played at $1.65 million last year.
T Jason Spriggs — An often-injured insurance policy as a swing tackle, he suffered another injury then other issues when they needed to lean on him and it would be difficult to see how he'd fit in next season if they emphasize tackle in the draft. Just 27 next season, it wouldn't be out of the question if they signed him back at that cost for camp and hoped he could fill the depth chart, but they might have younger competition to boot him off the roster. If not younger players, there could be other options available in free agency who are more dependable at a similar low price.
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