What the Bears Need to Give Up for a QB in Draft
The Bears have the most obvious quarterback need in the NFL, and have for decades.
Instead of trading for players with obvious baggage, like Carson Wentz, or dreaming they might somehow dupe the Houston Texans into giving them Deshaun Watson, the best way for the Bears to address their quarterback problem going forward is the same way a team should address any talent need.
They need to draft a quarterback.
The problem is by pick No. 20, they might see all their chances for a first-rounder, one of the top five quarterbacks, totally gone. It might take a trade to move up anyway, especially if they have picked out a particular quarterback to target.
ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay currently projects the fifth pick will be BYU quarterback Zach Wilson, so this would be a good place for the Bears to be if they want a high-level passer.
NFL teams use a chart to assist in value when determining how much they need to cough up if they're planning to ascend and select a better player.
A chart Jimmy Johnson devised was the standard, but CBS Sports.com's R.J. Wilson prior to last year's draft pointed to the chart devised by Patriots writer Rich Hill as being more up to date. Charts like these are adusted each year for accuracy.
Using a chart like this can help to see how much the Bears would need ton surrender to move up in Round 1 and get to one of the better quarterbacks.
Suppose the Bears want to reach the 10th spot from their 20th position. It's a huge leap, but this way they will be vaulting over several teams looking to select a quarterback, like Washington and the New England Patriots.
The first pick in the draft is worth 1,000 points on the chart, and then it drops off drastically. The 20th pick is worth 231.20 points. So if the Bears were to covet the first pick and had four first-round picks to give away, then it might work. They're obviously not moving up to get Trevor Lawrence. Besides, the only other first-round picks they could surrender are in the future, and Wilson points out is impossible to assign an exact value because no one knows their future draft position. Also, he has found the best way to make up for this is to assign a value for next year's first-round picks equal to the last pick in the first round. So a Bears pick in Round 1 for 2022 would be worth only 169.3 points, which would mean even three first-round picks from the future plus the 20th pick wouldn't get a team to No. 1 overall.
So much for silly thinking.
READ: The full chart and thoughts on what teams need to do to move up.
A move up to 10 would cost the Bears their 20th pick, their second-round pick which is No. 52 and maybe even their third-round pick. If they had a No. 4, this would be a more equitable tradeoff, but the Bears do not have a fourth-rounder after trading it so they could select Trevis Gipson last year in Round 5. So it would take a few other lesser picks to balance it. The Bears would trade their first-, second- and third-round picks for the 10th pick overall and a fourth- or fifth-round pick.
And if they moved up to No. 10, there's no guarantee they'd get a top-four quarterback, but most likely could take Mac Jones if they wanted at No. 10. It would be a reach. In the opinion some analysts, taking Justin Fields or Trey Lance in the top 10 would be a reach, as well.
Suppose the Bears decided they wanted to have a shot at the fifth pick in the draft. Anything higher than this would be extremely difficult. But moving up to No. 5 could be done. It might be like sacrificing your hand, but they could do it.
The No. 5 pick is worth 457.93 on the chart. The Bears would get 231.20 for their 20th pick, 99.88 for their second-round pick. Their third-rounder at No. 83 is worth only 46.46 poins, so it wouldn't do the trick. They're still roughly 133 points short of what they'd need. Trading next year's second-round pick wouldn't be enough. Because it's a future pick, it's worth only the bottom of Round 2 at 74 points.
To move up from 20 to No. 5 they'd need to give up two first-round picks, a third-rounder this year and a fourth-rounder from 2022.
Then, considering their luck with quarterbacks, the nightmare scenario would occur and the first four picks would all be quarterbacks.
Source: CBS Sports, R.J. White
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
