COVID Recovery No Sure Fantasy Bet

The reserve/COVID-19 list is a double-edged problem for fantasy owners because in addition to missing a player, they need to worry about if they've fully recovered once given clearance to return.

USA Today

Part of the problem with COVID-19 for fantasy football owners is they have their depth tested suddenly or even go without a player, depending on how late in the week someone tests positive. 

Then there is the more subtle aspect, but probably one more pertinent to success or failure. 

Many players go on the reserve/COVID-19 list and owners who are paying attention can address this. What they can't tell is how well a player has come back from COVID or how sick he had been. 

Things like this affect performance and it's not so simple as taking a player out of the starting lineup because they're on reserve/COVID-19.

It's almost like the question facing the Bears this week when they try to determine how much to play wide receiver Allen Robinson or defensive end Akiem Hicks after they came off the COViD-19 list.

"Every player is different in regards to how they handle it and how much they got hit by it," coach Matt Nagy said. "Some guys got it worse than others. Some guys are out more days than others.

"For instance, last week with Larry Borom, we were at that position last weekend with him, him getting in early, Wednesday, whatever it was, Tuesday or Wednesday last week, not knowing exactly where he was football-shape wise after being out."

Borom stepped right in and was fine to play.

"I think A-Rob's done a good job this week of being able to get into football shape," Nagy said. 'Doesn't mean they're not tired. 

"There's other guys too that have come off that list that talk about how winded they get. That's all real."

In Robinson's case, he lost 10 pounds from the illness but this was on Tuesday when he came back. By Sunday, it's possible he's close to full strength. 

And in looking at his situation, it's always important to remember he is a free agent after this season and it would help in the final two games to remind NFL general managers who he is. 

Whether it's for that reason or simply for the sake of being competitive, Robinson says he's ready.

"That's always my main focus is to try to put together a big game or big games or whatever's being asked of me," Robinson said. 

Here's whether owners should start or sit him, and who else fantasy owners should start and sit in Sunday's Bears-Giants game.

Start 'Em

Bears WR Allen Robinson

With Andy Dalton, Robinson has a better chance of being found in time in the passing game. Dalton has more trust in NFL receivers and receiving windows than Justin Fields. Robinson has had a week since COVID-19. Robinson easily could make a season-high for receptions, which would be seven. Even if the wind and cold are as severe as predictions say, he shouldn't be affected as much as some other receivers might because he has good hands and the Bears seem to focus on getting him the ball on shorter routes.

Bears TE Cole Kmet

It's a tight end's day when weather is poor. The passes won't go downfield as far and the tight ends have an edge on defenders because they could actually be blocking or receiving and have to be played that way. No one takes a wide receiver blocking seriously and the defensive backs can cheat off of them in coverage. Kmet is a Chicagoan. He should be able to catch in all conditions. As long as this is a PPR league you can't go wrong with Kmet. If you're looking for TDs from him, forget it. They're looking for Jimmy Graham in the red zone, and this makes little sense because Graham probably won't be with the team next year and they should be looking at the future now by playing Jesse James and Kmet.

Bears WR Darnell Mooney

He is slippery after the catch in the most perfect conditions, and in cold he can be impossible to bring down. It's pretty remarkable considering he's only about 180 pounds but no one seems able to square up and tackle him. Look for a few big plays, maybe catch and runs from him.

Giants TE Evan Engram

It's safe to expect Engram to be a target often for Mike Glennon. Against the Bears defense last year the Giants got six passes completed to Engram. Whether Glennon can actually accomplish this remains to be seen. Eddie Jackson, Tashaun Gipson and Roquan Smith might make it difficult but the Giants may have more success going to tight ends and backs than receivers with the wind and facing the Bears pass rush.

Sit 'Em

Bears RB David Montgomery

Montgomery has struggled to gain yardage for seven weeks and the Bears will be in shotgun a lot Sunday. They'll also be looking to use Khalil Herbert a bit more than in the past after he had a nice 20-yard TD run out of the shotgun last week when they'd had trouble running well out of the gun. Montgomery is a bit like Saquon Barkley, a stop-and-start runner who can cut back but those types of backs aren't the best in difficult field conditions. Where Montgomery could be a big asset Sunday is as a receiver. He has good hands, is excellent after the catch, and the passes the Bears will throw are more likely to be of the shorter, safer variety. Andy Dalton has to prove he is more willing to check down to Montgomery, though, and the Bears always have trouble setting up screens. 

Giants WR Kenny Golladay

With just 11 catches on 29 targets in the last four games, it's apparent that Golladay isn't on the same wave length yet with Glennon. Giants insiders say they haven't used him right and if there's a new coaching staff this could change. But not this week, under questionable field conditions. Golladay has been a real thorn in the Bears' sides too, averaging four receptions for 77.3 yards and half a TD for his six games against them. But that was in Detroit. It's been tougher for him with a new team. The Bears will be aiming to stop Gollday by either putting cornerback Jaylon Johnson on him all over the field or doubling up on him. The Giants really have no suitable outside option besides him because of injuries, so expect plenty of opportunities for Golladay but he's had chances before and hasn't delivered.

Giants RB Saquon Barkley

Having Hicks back should help the Bears defensive front shut down the run. Even if Barkley wants to have a big game because he was hurt in Chicago last year, his line and a Chicago defensive front now looking more resurgent could make it tough. Also, the Giants have another back in Devontae Booker, who is bigger at 5-11, 219 and could be more effective in tougher field conditions. So they could go to him more because Barkley tends to dance a bit.

Defense 

This is a good week to go with the Bears defense. They've given up 176 yards passing or less to six of the last seven offenses and are fourth in pass defense. If the Giants came in with a big running game they could offset this but they have struggled most of the year on the ground and now the Bears finally have Akiem Hicks and Eddie Goldman together inside on defense. Roquan Smith should be able to roam free for tackles in this one.

In IDP league, of course you should be banking on Robert Quinn to break Richard Dent's sacks record and add another one or two, particularly if the Giants fall behind. Glennon is a sitting duck and a very easy target for Quinn coming in tight along the edge when he looks for strip sacks.

Normally one of the Giants defenders like safety Xavier McKinney would be a decent option. He has five interceptions. But the Bears aren't likely to challenge deep much in the expected weather conditions. 

If you are looking for a different IDP bet, Smith is it. He's got Glennon's number, having picked him off twice in a game last year.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven