No Ideal Bears Fit with Top Defensive Linemen

Extensive conjecture about the Bears' need to select a defensive lineman in the first two picks of the draft paint a poor picture for what they have on their current roster at those positions.

Indeed, production numbers indicate little went on up front last year for the Bears defense. When they had 10 1/2 sacks from all of their defensive ends and tackles put together and a rookie safety led the team in sacks, it's safe to say they need top-level help either in free agency or the draft but need it in multiples.

When Pro Football Focus has graded four of their defensive tackles in a group of 127 league-wide and the highest ranked among them is Armon Watts at 101st, and has graded 120 defensive ends with all four of the Bears edges in the bottom 15 overall, something is really amiss.

It's going to take many additions to turn around that mess.

Nevertheless, it's well known coaches like what they've seen from defensive tackle Justin Jones playing three technique as well as moving down the line to end on some plays. And it's not just coaches.

"Justin Jones, I thought, did a really good job," GM Ryan Poles said. "I thought he was a consistent playmaker through the season.

"With that front, I know there were a lot of questions on production in the pass game with sacks. I think that's a group that, just like O-line, you've got to work together. It's not just one player."

One real surprise came out in the ESPN offensive line and defensive line win rates this year. Defensive end Trevis Gipson finished as sixth best in the league at run-stop win rate with 29%.

Whether this is even valid is in question because the Bears also ranked 15th in the league at run-stop win rate when they were 31st against the run. They ranked 23rd in pass-rush win rate when they were last in the league in sacks with 20. It was their lowest total since 2003.

The thought of that group of defensive linemen working together another season might make some of the team's fans retch.

The other problem with what Poles said is the next group will need time to work together again before they're effective, even if the talent is better.

It's going to take some more time to get it together.

At least they were 17th against the pass last year as a group thanks to their pass defense, but also because of the fact their run defense invited opponents to stick instead to the ground. The run defense finished 31st and much of that fault rests with their defensive line.

Jalen Carter Is No Exact Fit

Many assume it would be Anderson as the pick because he is a classic pass-rushing edge who produced all throughout college.

Carter's numbers are not as impressive but he plays a position where disruption takes greater priority over sack numbers. And Carter was disruption personified.

However, Carter also wasn't used exactly the way he'd be used in the one-gap front the Bears deploy, which works both against them and in their favor.

It's possible Carter will be even more effective when he doesn't have to worry about two gaps in a 4-3 or stunting and can attack off the ball.

However, the Georgia defense used a front which stunts heavily and can leave gaps open and part of Carter's effectiveness came from this approach. This will rarely be the case in Chicago. The last thing the Bears want to do is leave a gap uncovered and stunting is done sparingly, just like blitzing.

So how effective can Carter be lining up all the time at tackle in a gap and charging without stunting much? It's an unknown and not supported by his status in any way with six career sacks and 18 1/2 tackles for loss in three seasons.

Will Anderson Underweight

If a totally different college scheme could hold back Carter, Anderson's misfit for the Bears scheme might be even greater because it's physical.

Anderson is 6-foot-4, 243 pounds. That might be by using extra emphasis on the scale. In fact, he has played much of the time below 240, and even in the mid-to-low 230s.

While coaching this defensive scheme in Indianapolis, Eberflus had only one edge player out of 14 edges on their rosters over four seasons who weighed less than 248 pounds and that was Carroll Phillips of Illinois. Phillips was there six games and left without making a tackle in 2018.

Kemoko Turay was the only other player under 250 pounds (248) who had any type of pass rushing impact at edge position. He has 5 1/2 career sacks.

Their big draft acquisition at the edge was Kwity Paye, who is 261 pounds.

They were best when they moved Denico Autry from three technique to end after obtaining DeForest Buckner to play tackle. Autry is 285 pounds.

This is a defensive scheme at its best with players weighing in between 255 and 275 on the edge. Unless Anderson is adding yet another 10-15 pounds, he's really physically not ideal for what they want from ends.

He is an attacking edge who is very effective racing around the tackle's outside shoulder, leaving the outside gap uncovered. The Bears would rather have disciplined pass rush by bigger players off the edge and as a result Anderson doesn't quite fit what they want from an edge.

The Real Need

Trading down is the way for the Bears to go regardless of what teams are thinking right below them in Round 1. They have too many needs to address and more picks means they have a better chance to do it.

But they'll need to have the class well scouted because if they trade down there's a very good chance they don't come out with Carter or Anderson.

There is much speculation now that Houston might be looking not for a quarterback but for defensive line help because the Texans hired former 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans as head coach. If the Bears move down to No. 4, they might miss the chance at both Anderson or Carter.

They might find their pick isn't in great demand, too. While Adam Schefter of ESPN suggested they'll get a lot of ridiculous offers with huge packages of high draft picks for the No. 1 pick, former NFL executive Michael Lombardi on Thursday told WSCR's David Haugh something totally different that makes real sense. He says there really isn't a great demand for a single player among the top passers, which doesn't make the Bears pick at No. 1 as valuable as No. 1 normally is.

"I'm not sure that there's a quarterback that everybody covets," Lombardi told Haugh on WSCR. "I know there's a quarterback that the mock draft people covet and they think Bryce Young is going to be the first overall pick and he's got tremendous value. But Bryce young is 185 pounds and he's under 6 feet tall. I don't know if that's going to be the sensation that's created.

"I think that that's a little bit harder. I think that teams could easily say, 'look, I'll just take CJ Stroud as opposed to Bryce Young and not give up any assets.' "

In that case, the Bears' scouting of the entire class is going to be critical, especially those third through fifth-best defensive linemen.

If the Bears are trading down then, the answer could very well be neither Anderson nor Carter on the line but taking the big plunge way down for many picks.

In that case the Bears would need to have real fits and gems identified from later in Round 1 or Day 2 rather than the no-brainer D-line picks at the top.

Considering the overwhelming need and lack of perfect fit for both of the top two defensive linemen in the scheme, would more players rather than one of the top two necessarily be bad?

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