Who's Sitting with GM Ryan Pace on Bears Hot Seat?
After an 8-8 season, the Bears can ill afford another decline like last year's four-win dip from their division-winning season.
Popular speculation says it's possible another one could mean general manager Ryan Pace's job.
"Let's just say that Bear success in the 2020 season is vital for Pace's future," was how Peter King put it for Football Morning in America.
It's a logical assumption considering Pace's contract expires after 2021, but not one backed by any legitimate sources at any point anywhere.
Similar speculation pointed at coach Matt Nagy at the outset of the offseason, but this is even less logical considering he was a coach of the year just two seasons prior, hasn't had a losing season and has two years left after 2020 on his contract.
Still, Pace isn't alone in facing a prove-it type of year.
The team is a sum of its parts and just like reasonable logic supports speculation about Pace's job there is every reason to think it's true about numerous players.
On this strangest of training camp reporting days, when players begin their COVID-19 testing and virtual meetings, here are the Bears who have placed themselves directly in harm's way already. The pressure is on them to a greater extent.
While there are several other players who much is expected from because of their big contracts—Khalil Mack, Robert Quinn and Eddie Jackson to name a few—the pressure is far greater when a player's actual job security is on the line.
9. Guard Germain Ifedi
It isn't the end of the road for Ifedi even if he fails in Chicago after leaving Seattle. So the pressure isn't as great for him as for others. A player who started four straight years and was a first-round pick will find some sort of work in 2021 even if he fails as a starting guard in Chicago. Some team would want him as a backup candidate and the contract wouldn't be much different than it is this season.
8. Linebacker Roquan Smith
A hidden message within much of the talk about Smith by coaches was they would like to see more from Smith. His own statement about a chip on his shoulder only serves to indicate he realizes he should have been better. Independent judges of Smith's efforts, like Pro Football Focus, have always been less than complimentary. The greatest logic of all behind the thought Smith needs to do more is his fifth-year contract option. The decision is due next spring, and he just saw what happened to the leader of the team when he failed to meet high expectations. Mitchell Trubisky situation provided an example of how high the bar is set for first-round picks and where Smith needs to get. Smith isn't in danger of being traded or cut for 2021, but his future is what's at stake. If the Bears don't pick up that option, it doesn't necessarily mean Smith is headed elsewhere. It just means he's really going to be under the microscope in 2021.
7. Tackle Charles Leno Jr.
Always underrated by Bears fans, Leno has been appreciated more by the team and by statistical sites like PFF. His efforts had been graded as average to solid despite occasional penalty problems at a position where even the best sometimes experience them. Working in Leno's favor is he's not overpaid for a starting tackle. Last year's efforts met with universal criticism and because he carries a possible cap savings of $6.2 million for 2021 if cut, Leno Jr. becomes expendable with a poor year.
6. Tackle Bobby Massie
Like with tackle Charles Leno Jr., Massie's pay is a relative bargain and this works in his favor. With a cap savings of $5.4 million if cut next year, and coming off a season when he missed six games due to injuries and illness, he needs to be more dependable. When healthy there was little evidence his play had diminished. There would be less tolerance with Massie than with Leno because he's older and it's easier to find a right tackle than a left tackle.
5. Cornerback Kyle Fuller
With the team in a bad financial situation for next year's diminished salary cap, and with Fuller carrying a potential cap savings of $11 million if cut or traded, he immediately becomes a potential target for dispersal. The Bears received outstanding play from Fuller in 2015, 2017 and 2018,with PFF grades of 70.5, 77 and 83. Despite winning the popularity contest that is the Pro Bowl last year, Fuller had only a 62.5 PFF grade, the worst since his rookie year of 2014. His passer rating against when targeted skyrocketed from 63.7 to 102. His completion percentage allowed went from 56.2% to 70.8%. The Lions had a perennial Pro Bowl cornerback in Darius Slay and decided to trade him at age 29 while starting over with a younger cornerback. Without a bigger season in 2020, it's possible before next year the Bears might try dealing Fuller, who will be 29 next season.
4. Tight End Jimmy Graham
Graham was brought in only as a short-term fix until Cole Kmet is ready to take on greater responsibility. Graham's contract is a one-year deal waiting to happen. With a big year, he might change some minds but his fate seemed determined when his contract was signed and when Kmet was drafted.
3. Running back Tarik Cohen
An unrestricted free agent after this season, Cohen suffered a tremendous loss in productivity last year. Without a bounce-back year, it would be difficult to see the Bears keeping him. When he averaged only 5.8 yards per reception on 104 total targets it was wasting plays with throws in his direction. The decline from a 4.5-yard rushing average to a scant 3.3 yards seemed more the fault of the offensive line but another similar year could shift that blame. It's an era where running backs carry far less value than in the past, and third-down types carry even less. Considering David Montgomery is expected to have a bigger role in the receiving game, Cohen's fate could already be sealed.3.
2. Safety Tashaun Gipson
A one-year deal is enough to put anyone under a microscope. It apparently takes plenty in Chicago to succeed at safety in such a situation because Ha Ha Clinton-Dix produced in pass coverage and still was allowed to leave as a free agent to sign in Dallas for only $750,000 more than he received last year in Chicago. So they easily could have had him back if they wanted. As a result, it's obviously a tough standard Gipson faces in a contract season.
1. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky
Trubisky is in a separate category. His status will essentially be decided not over this season but over the next five weeks. Barring a regular-season injury to Nick Foles, if Trubisky loses the quarterback battle he's not coming back to Chicago in 2021. Even if he wins, he might not be back. It's just going to delay the decision.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
