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Bears and Lions Fantasy Forecast
Justin Fields' ability to help fantasy football owners as a starter this week is nearly unquestioned.
Virtually every fantasy column written this week devotes prominent space to his exploits and potential.
It also says something about his ability to play on despite a lack of help.
SI.com fantasy expert Michael Fabiano ranks Fields as the fourth best quarterback to have in your lineup for this week. Only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts rank higher this week for fantasy owners in Fabiano's eyes.
Another list Fabiano puts out only further underscores how strong a season Fields is having.
Fabiano's list of top 10 receivers for this week in fantasy ball does not include a single Bears receiver. And why should it?
Fields and Patrick Mahomes are the only quarterbacks from the top seven recommended by Fabiano this week who have no targets on his top-10 receiver list for this week.
No one questions Mahomes' receivers, though. They just didn't make the top 10 fantasy list.
Fields is going it alone as a top fantasy play and it's difficult to get too enthused about any of his targets for fantasy owners until they start to produce bigger numbers.
Darnell Mooney has trended up, but it remains to be seen how that will go with Chase Claypool now on the team.
After, or if, the Bears are better able to find more talent in free agency or the draft next year, Fields should be a perennial "start 'em" in every league, every week.
Fields' running ability isn't the only talent making him one of the top plays this week.
Sports Illustrated's Shawn Childs has his current Week 10 projections posted and he sees a 227-yard passing game coming for Fields against the Lions.
Not only would that be a season high but also his third-highest total ever.
All of this should be of extreme interest to the betting types because if Fields is going to throw for 227 yards and has the ability to run for 100, the Lions will be hard-pressed to stay in a game that is expected to be decided by a field goal or less.
Here are this week's top BearDigest plays from Bears and Lions, both in fantasy ball and against the spread.
Fantasy Football Forecast
Start 'Em
1. Bears QB Justin Fields
It's entirely possible Jared Goff throws for a good deal more yards in this game but Fields should have the more critical yardage passing- and running-wise. TDs passing and running should be anticipated. Fields has TDs both running and passing in each of the last three games and until three weeks ago he'd only done it once in his career. If last year's first career home start is any indication for Fields, all of this support is warranted. He didn't play the second game against the Lions last year with an injury but the first game he went 11 of 17 for 209 yards.
2. Lions QB Jared Goff
Goff is facing a shorthanded defense both in the pass rush and secondary. And they weren't much of a defense when healthy. He's thrown 14 TD passes to seven interceptions this year, and has been below 215 yards passing only once. In his last three games against the Bears, Goff has thrown for six touchdown passes and 690 yards. He's at his best when not facing much rush and the Bears don't have much rush to offer.
3. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
This has to be an easy play and it has nothing to do with the brotherly competition against Bears receiver Equanimeous St. Brown. St. Brown is going against rookie cornerback Kyler Gordon when he lines up in the slot or crosses through the middle of the Bears' zone, and it's been a rollercoaster year for Gordon. St. Brown has had a sluggish last five weeks and hasn't caught a TD pass in that span, so he's overdue. With Goff not expected to s face much pass rush pressure, it should be pitch-and-catch with St. Brown over the middle.
4. Bears RB David Montgomery
His 70.5 yards rushing for an average of 17.2 attempts in six games against Detroit includes four TDs. The Bears weren't happy with their overall running attack last week beyond Fields' scrambling, so look for them to address this against Detroit.
5. Bears RB Khalil Herbert
Herbert had one of his quietest games of the year last week as Miami's sixth-ranked run defense shut down the Bears but expect him to break loose if they continue giving him a similar number of carries to Montgomery.
6. Lions RB Jamaal Williams
He's been capable against the Bears in his 10 career games but over much of his career he hasn't really been given the chance to carry the ball the way he has this year when D'Andre Swift was injured. Williams has averaged 43.6 yards on 11.5 rushes against the Bears for the Lions and Packers. He's gone over 5.0 yards per carry in three of his last six games this year. And he's facing one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.
7. Bears WR Darnell Mooney
Mooney averages 19.35 yards per reception against the Lions for four games and has made 17 catches for 329 yards. It didn't matter who the quarterback was last year. He caught five for 125 against the Lions at Soldier Field with Fields at quarterback and five for 123 yards at Ford Field with Andy Dalton at quarterback on Thanksgiving. One thing Mooney hasn't done is get in the end zone against the Lions, and hadn't done it this year at all until last week.
8. Bears WR Chase Claypool
Normally waiting one more week to use him might be advised but Claypool was talking a lot about blocking this week and being physical, so it's a sure tipoff that they're going to try to throw to him instead. The Lions have had problems with consistency in production and personnel usage in the secondary so he'll have a better chance at receptions than against Miami last week. Also, it's a different officiating crew.
9. Bears K Cairo Santos
He hasn't missed a field goal this year and his streak goes back to last December at 19 straight now. The Bears are middle of the pack in TD percentage within the red zone at 55.17% so it's logical to expect he'll have a chippy or two. The temperature is going to be in the 30s so it's unlikely they'll be willing to risk much from 50 yards or longer.
Sit 'Em
10. Bears TE Cole Kmet
He finally put up a bigger catch number last week with five but has averaged only 7.7 yards per reception for his career against the Lions. Detroit has linebackers who are faster and decent coverage players, like Malcolm Rodriguez (4.52-second 40) and it might be tougher for Kmet to be open beyond the sticks.
101. Lions RB D'Andre Swift
There is real concern over his ability to play a larger role. He has carried only seven times since coming back from an ankle injury three weeks ago. It's better to play it safe here.
Defense
What defense? It isn't going to be apparent on either side of the field. Don't be fooled by Detroit's defense holding Green Bay to 15 points. The Packers are disfunctional at the moment on offense.
In an IDP league, Eddie Jackson is a safe play. Two of his 14 career interceptions came against the Lions, and one of his touchdowns. He still is tied for second in the NFL with four picks.
Best Bears Bets
The Spread and Total
The Line: Bears by 2 1/2. Over/under 48 1/2.
BearDigest Record: 7-2, 4-5 ATS. Over/under 3-6.
BearDigest Pick: Bears 31, Lions 27.
Prop Picks: Chase Claypool over 2.5 catches should capture the attention of prop people. He made two catches and easily could have had three more in the game if not for a drop, an official's mistake on DPI and another DPI penalty when he was knocked down. The Bears are going to target him against a porous Lions pass defense.
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