Bear Digest

Caleb Williams' current pace puts him nowhere near 4,000-yard passing mark in 2025

Despite hope that the Bears would finally have a 4,000-yard passer in 2025, Caleb Williams' slow start could put that wishful thinking in jeopardy.
Bryan Perez|
Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The 2025 NFL season began with Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams poised to become the first player in team history to throw for more than 4,000 yards in one season.

How could he not? With Ben Johnson calling plays, a revamped offensive line, and pass catchers like DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, and Cole Kmet, it would take an absolute internal meltdown to fall short of that goal.

After two games and an 0-2 start, the temperature is nearing whatever is required to melt an offense down.

Williams is currently on pace to throw for 3,545 yards, 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions. It's a stat line that's awfully close to his rookie season output of 3,541 yuards, 20 touchdowns and six interceptions.

Detroit Lions defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo (94) tackles Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams
David Reginek-Imagn Images

Perhaps that's a big reason why the NFL's talking heads are pushing the lack of development narrative. The final stat lines through two games have Williams on a mirror-image pace as his rookie year.

Williams isn't the only Chicago Bears skill player whose numbers suggest and underperformance in 2025 is in the cards. Running back D'Andre Swift's first two games have him on pace to fall short of 1,000 rushing yards once again (his current pace has him at 986 yards). Moore's early season production is also underwhelming; at this rate, he'll finish 2025 with just 68 catches for 969 yards.

The tight end production hasn't gone according to preseason projections, either. Kmet is tracking to end the year with 26 catches for 510 yards, while Loveland is on a horrendous 17 catch, 102-yard pace.

Obviously, Loveland's numbers will improve. But this projection underlines just how little he's been used through the first two games.

The one skill player who's exceeding expectations after two games is Odunze, who, at his current rate of production, would finish the 2025 season with 111 catches for 1,403 yards. He already has as many touchdowns this season (3) as he had during his entire rookie year.

The Chicago Bears' offense will improve. Caleb Williams' numbers will get better. But he'll need a few big games over the first half of the season to get on a 4,000-yard pace.

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Bryan Perez
BRYAN PEREZ

Bryan Perez founded and operated Bears Talk, a Chicago sports blog. Prior to that, he covered the Bears for USA Today’s Bears Wire and NBC Sports Chicago. In addition to his Chicago Bears coverage, Perez is a respected member of NFL Draft media and was a past winner of The Huddle's Mock Draft competition. Bryan's past life includes time as a Northeast scout for the CFL's Ottawa Redblacks.

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