Draft Status Supplies Some Bears Cut Insurance
Saying all draft picks get a pass from roster cutdowns in Ryan Pace's era as general manager would be an oversimplification.
If they were drafted in the sixth round or earlier, they have had to prove they are breathing, can see, run, and maybe do a few more things.
This is not a Pace policy as much as a league practice. Players who were just drafted need chances to prove themselves.
However, seventh-rounders are no lock for the roster. Rookie nose tackle Khyiris Tonga needs to realize this.
Both of last year's seventh-round picks were cut and put on the practice squad. It was difficult to ascertain much about them when there was no offseason work or preseason, so the Bears really couldn't afford to keep two late-round linemen as active players.
Other than those two, only cornerback project Stephen Denmark was cut immediately and then he wound up back on the practice squad like linemen Arlington Hambright and Lachavious Simmons last year.
No sixth-round picks have ever been cut by the Bears under Pace. Even a total wasted pick like tackle Tayo Fabuluje in 2015 was initially on the roster.
This year this could change with the sixth-round picks but it's unlikely.
Running back Khalil Herbert is needed on the roster as a return man if not a reserve back, while Dazz Newsome could be needed as a punt returner.
The problem for both of them is they face extreme competition from veterans and it wouldn't be shocking to see one or both cut and brought back on the practice squad if the Bears found something they liked better from players like receivers Damiere Byrd and Marquise Goodwin or if they kept running back Ryan Nall or Artavis Pierce.
Still, it seems unlikely.
Protected status on the roster doesn't only go to draft picks. The Bears will have at least one of those this year when it comes to cuts.
Trades are a different matter.
Here are their players protected by draft status or contract status.
QB Justin Fields
The savior of the franchise faces a question but it has nothing to do with the roster. It's all about when he gets to start. In the last 10 years there have been 32 quarterbacks drafted in the first round and only 12 started on opening day, so it's not unusual for the Bears to want to keep Fields watching. The real issue is when this ends. In the last 10 years, 29 played prior to Week 17 of their rookie year and the average first start came 3.4 weeks into the year. In other words, about the time Mitchell Trubisky had his first start is average or even a week beyond average. His came in Week 5. So much enters into this with Fields, like Andy Dalton's success, the pressure on Matt Nagy if the team starts out with a losing streak and the offense's general success.
Roster Chances: Lock.
Starting Status: Likely Day 1 Reserve.
T Teven Jenkins
If Jenkins doesn't start opening day, it's anyone's guess who would. Current tackle No. 3 Elijah Wilkinson hasn't played left tackle in the NFL. They have no one who has started a game at left tackle in the NFL on the roster. This isn't to say Wilkinson couldn't do it, or that fifth-round pick Larry Borom couldn't. They just haven't. At least Jenkins can say he's played the position for a high-profile college program for the better part of one season. Dalton will need to have his head on a swivel with a rookie at left tackle.
Roster Chances: Lock.
Starting Status: Likely Day 1 starter.
T Larry Borom
Borom could be a guard or tackle and it wouldn't be surprising if his first NFL action comes in 2022 because neither starting right guard James Daniels nor starting right tackle Germain Ifedi possess contracts for 2022. Borom is a mauling type of tackle and scouts saw footwork as an area he needs to improve, although he said he feels like his strength is pass blocking. Juan Castillo will have him working hard on technique and repetition all year.
Roster Chances: Lock.
Starting Status: Likely Day 1 inactive reserve.
CB Thomas Graham Jr.
He'll have several reasons for having a reserved roster spot even though he is a sixth-round pick. One is needing to see what he can do like with all draft picks. In Graham's case, the Bears are in a state of uncertainty and flux at left cornerback and slot cornerback so he's going to have every opportunity to make the roster, if not start. He fits in at either position, so this is another reason to keep him. Another factor to take into account is he opted out last year. It's possible coaching staffs around the league might be more lenient with some of the young players who did this. They could need more time to prove themselves after the inactivity.
Roster Chances: 4 on scale of 0-5.
Starting Status: Likely Day 1 reserve.
CB Kindle Vildor
Vildor's biggest challenge might not be keeping opposing receivers in check as much as it could be stablizing his own helmet size. If anything is ever going to inflate someone's ego, it's the type of universal praise being heaped on the second-year cornerback by coaches on all sides during Bears offseason work. It almost seems they went out of their way to praise him, perhaps to keep veteran starter Desmond Trufant focused and not overconfident. The Bears obviously have something in mind for Vildor, possibly being a starter at left cornerback or even trying him at the slot position. So far he's been focused on the outside cornerback spot. Last year's returns weren't exactly spectacular after he played when injuries hit Jaylon Johnson and Buster Skrine. He allowed two touchdown passes, a 70.6% completion rate when targeted, and also a passer rating of 131.2. It has to improve, and apparently coaches think it can.
Roster Chances: Lock
Starting Status: Likely Day 1 reserve.
CB Duke Shelley
The third-year cornerback was only slightly more effective than Vildor last year, allowing a touchdown and 118.1 passer rating. He was worse at completion percentage allowed, with 80%. Shelley, though, has a bit of an edge because training time has been devoted to him at slot cornerback and it's a difficult position for the Bears to fill. Veteran roster spot competitors like Artie Burns, Tre Roberson and Xavier Crawford are not really slot cornerbacks by trade. So Shelley has a big edge here. It's uncertain if this would be the case if Graham is put at the position, but during minicamp it was Shelley with the first team at slot corner so he has the pole position. Shelley or Vildor wouldn't be the first young cornerbacks cut by the team if it happened. When was the last time anyone thought about Kevin Toliver II, who started two games at cornerback? However, Toliver wasn't a draft pick like Shelley and Vildor. The draft picks will get the benefit of doubt because they were liked by scouts and personnel people.
Roster Chances: Lock.
Starting Status: Likely Day 1 reserve.
QB Nick Foles
While Foles is protected, he's not a lock to be a Bears quarterback. It seems likely they would want to trade him and there could be takers any time up to the deadline in October. However, Foles is in no danger of being cut because it would mean the team loses $5 million of cap space. Basically, that's all of their cap space. If traded, there is actual cap savings for the Bears of $4 million because they wouldn't be on the hook for his guaranteed salary.
People who see Foles and think about his Super Bowl success need to remember his teams are only 13-18 in regular-season games he has started since he was dumped by Chip Kelly's Eagles team after the 2014 season. Since then, he became a check-down Charlie and has averaged a paltry 6.3 yards per pass attempt.
The Bears have had to use more than two quarterbacks in two of the last five seasons, so it never hurts to have someone experienced on hand—especially if it hurts your salary cap situation to get rid of him.
Roster Chances: 3 on a scale of 0-5.
Starting Status: Probable Day 1 inactive reserve.
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