David Montgomery Faces a Buyer's Market
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The Bears currently sit with about $5.9 million in available cap space for the rest of this season, according to Spotrac.com.
With four games to go, there's a good possibility a chunk of that cash will remain and can be devoted to part of the bonus money to retain one key player who will become an unrestricted free agent after this season, specifically running back David Montgomery.
That is, if the Bears want to retain him, it can be spent on a new deal for a player who will enter his fifth year in 2023, one who has been the heart and soul of their attack for four years.
Spotrac came out within the last week with its market projections for free agents over the next three years.
On that list, they have made projected Montgomery as very affordable. That is, he's affordable for a team with $115 million available next year for use in free agency in March.
Montgomery's projected value is about $9.7 million a year, a three-year projected deal of $29.3 million.
This is actually slightly more than $3 million a year less than what Spotrac.com had him projected at last year.
Whether the Bears retain may involve any combination of several factors involving his skill set.
1. Complementary
The Bears have two breakaway threats as runners in Justin Fields and Khalil Herbert. The ideal complementary back is the guy who can get tough yardage inside, and this perfectly describes Montgomery. Perhaps only a powerful runner with better ability get wide occasionally to break away would be a better fit.
Montgomery could wind up with a career low in rushing yards for a season, but that's because both Herbert and Fields also are getting carries. Montgomery has 641 yards on 160 carries, a 4-yard average.
Montgomery is powerfully built at 5-foot-11, 224 pounds, is seventh in the NFL in broken tackles with 20 and fourth in attempts per broken tackle at 8.0. He ranks eighth in yards after contact at 2.2. Fields' 20 broken tackles is nine short of his production for his 1,000-yard season in 2020.
It's not clear they could find a power runner who is like Montgomery. His ability to start and stop and make first tacklers miss in the hole, besides running with power, was why former Bears coach Matt Nagy liked him in the draft.
Bears run blocking hasn't always been ideal and Montgomery has had to use this skill to get an opening so he could initiate his power running at times in his first three seasons. Not every power back on the list of those available can do this. Of the free agents available only Saquon Barkley also has that combination, but Barkley also has breakaway speed.
Bears run blocking has improved and it would be interesting to see where a good offensive line could get Montgomery in the future.
2. Versatility
There is no doubt at all Montgomery is the best Bears receiver out of the backfield, and he also is by far their best pass-blocking running back.
He passes the eye test but apparently not the analytics test. Pro Football Focus rates him only 28th this year among pass blocking backs and 20th as a receiving back.
They must not have watched enough film of his pass blocking because there are plays were he stands up blitzers and drives them back on pass rush. He is rarely beaten completely or misses the assignment.
PFF has him rated well behind Cordarrelle Patterson as a pass blocker this year. This should show what PFF actually knows about pass blocking backs because the Bears had to teach Patterson what to do in this regard in 2020. He had no clue how to block a blitzer and was lit up in training camp repeatedly by players like Roquan Smith. He blocks a blitzer like a wide receiver would—ineffectively.
Montgomery, on the other hand, has easily been the best blocking/receiving back the Bears have had since Matt Forte. He's averaging a career-best 9.8 yards a reception this year, or almost 4 yards a catch better than Patterson, who is actually a wide receiver. Montgomery averages 8.0 yards a catch for his career and has better hands and a feel for the passing game than Herbert or the other Bears backs, Darrynton Evans and Trestan Ebner.
Durability
Montgomery has officially missed one game this year with an ankle injury and missed four last year when he had a knee injury. He missed one with a concussion in 2020 so he has been fairly durable without major injury.
Considering all the hits he takes and delivers, it's surprising he doesn't have more games missed.
Affordability
The problem for Montgomery is with all that cash, the Bears can go after any tough runner they deem worth pursuing.
The hottest back in the league is a free agent and is a power/speed back. NFL rushing leader Josh Jacobs has a Spotrac cash value about $3 million more a year than Montgomery.
Pursuing Jacobs probably isn't on the docket for the Bears considering he is being run into the ground by the Raiders with a 300-plus carry year, but mainly because the running back market is a buyer's market. Sadly, the value of backs over the years has plummeted and there are backs everywhere who are underpaid but with plenty of talent. So it's tough for even the best to command top dollar
They could also easily go into the draft and find a hard runner capable of being a power runner at some point on the second day or even Round 4, and have that player available on his first contract for four years. Then again, getting this same combination of skills they have with Montgomery might be the trick.
A team with $5.6 million left this year and $115 million next year can treat a $9.7 million average annual salary like cab fare and retain the real thing.
Of course the Bears can afford Montgomery.
The question is will they seriously try to keep him.
Spotrac.com Projected Market Values
Unrestricted Free Agent Running Backs for 2023
1. Josh Jacobs $12.4 million annually
2. Saquon Barkley $12.1 million annually
3. David Montgomery $9.8 million annually
4. Miles Sanders $7.2 million annually
5. Damien Harris $7.0 million annually
6. Kareem Hunt $7.0 million annually
7. Devin Singletary $5.9 million annually
8. Jamaal Williams $4.2 million annually
9. James Robinson $3.9 million annually
10. D'Onta Foreman $3 million annually
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