Draft Picks Reflect Success by Ryan Poles
The pause in play allows for closer examination of performance by the man running things, GM Ryan Poles.
While Matt Eberflus and staff receive constant scrutiny for decisions and player performance from media, fans and possibly the upper powers at Halas Hall, the GM makes his picks and is able to fade largely into the background except when major issues arise.
When Ryan Pace was GM, he faded way into the background to the point of hiding.
Poles, at least, is more visible when there is a crisis like those resulting in human resource intervention or contract issues, or when something big like a trade for a pass rusher occurs.
So during time when no game is on the immediate horizon, it's a proper time to take a look at how it's all worked out for the Bears GM. This starts with the draft.
It's often said draft classes can't be evaluated properly until three years elapse. This is largely something personnel people and coaches conjured up to keep scrutiny to a minimum.
"If you can get three or four meaningful players from each year's draft, that's a really good draft," former Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum told the Washington Post. "Its very subjective. But to me it's—three years later, has that player meaningfully contributed to a good team?"
Former Steelers GM Kevin Colbert had a much more easily defined term for success.
"Our top three picks have to become starters," he told the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore.
Former NFL executive Randy Mueller, in the same article, said it's 2 1/2 or three starters.
The time element seems to be the issue. Three years is an awfully long time to wait to evaluate in this man's NFL. They're throwing out evaluations after a game in some cases these days.
Anyone closely observing a team should be able to take half a season and see where the trend is going on players to make a proper determination of success. At the very least, they can determine where a player is trending and thus where the GM is trending.
From that standpoint, Poles looks to be succeeding in the draft. He has five starters and could have as many as seven to nine.
Here are the hits and misses by Poles to this point, but remember, if three years is any kind of a standard time period there is reason to think some players could reverse trends and impress further. Or they could regress.
Hits
1. T Darnell Wright
For the 10th pick, Wright has been everything imagined and more. He is graded by Pro Football Focus higher than Paris Johnson, a tackle chosen four spots earlier by Arizona. Broderick Jones, chosen later by Pittsburgh in Round 1, has the same overall grade. It doesn't change the fact Poles could have taken Jalen Carter and solved the Bears defensive interior issues immediately, but Wright is the Bears starting right tackle for years to come and it's apparent after 10 starts. The guy even plays through injuries, as he's doing know with a shoulder issue.
2. T Braxton Jones
Until being sidelined with a neck injury early this season, Jones looked like possibly their biggest draft success. He returned and had a strong game against the Panthers Thursday. Their 2022 fifth-round pick had the highest pass blocking grade among Bears players Thursday night and allowed only two pressures on 37 plays. His pass blocking has been much better overall this year for his small amount of plays due to the injury. His run blocking was already outstanding last year. If Jones goes down this path, he can make the Bears forget about looking at tackle early in the 2024 draft. It shouldn't be surprising Poles' two biggest hits in the draft are tackles, considering his own experience as an offensive lineman.
3. Jaquan Brisker
He needs to be more consistent in his pass coverage and got beat Thursday on a 45-yard completion, but his overall play as a starter for a season and a half is enough to make him the second-most successful pick. Brisker's run-stopping ability as a safety is showing big time and he led the team in sacks as a rookie.
4. CB Kyler Gordon
The only thing preventing Gordon from being at least second on this list are health concerns. It's seven out of 27 games missed. The reason this has been an issue is his play has advanced greatly when he has been consistently available. Thursday night he wrecked the Panthers running game before it got started and had a big hand in limiting Adam Thielen to only 42 yards for his six receptions. He's their true second-best cornerback and at a position vital in the scheme.
5. WR Tyler Scott
He's not one of the starters and at this time projects as a third or fourth receiver at best, but the potential looks great for third receiver and the only thing holding him back is more opportunity. And also a quarterback with the arm and will to find him when he's wide open in the middle of the field on a deep route like he was when ignored Thursday night. Scott has multiple uses and this can't hurt. He ran the ball from scrimmage for their longest running play of the night, 16 yards. He gets open deep or short and had a key 15-yard catch over the middle. His ceiling is high and his floor is a fourth receiver with return ability.
6. DT Gervon Dexter
He has played just 38% of defensive plays and is in a rotation but shows promise for more productivity in the future. At worst, he's a member of a D-line rotation at both nose tackle and three technique and still has the chance to develop into a strong three technique. Coaches are working with someone who hasn't played the position the way they want. Eberflus has described him as a two-gap player who must be taught the single-gap style. So it's slow-go, but being graded 55th right now overall and as a pass rusher out of 126 interior defensive linemen by Pro Football Focus as a rookie is a definite feather in his cap.
7. CB Tyrique Stevenson
He's a starter as a rookie so this already makes him part of Poles' success formula. He could be a much more consistent starter, but there has been improvement over the last three games in this regard. His passer rating against is a high 119.3 but was still at 141 or higher before the last two games and so he's made stides. The seven touchdown passes allowed tend to raise that figure but his completion percentage allowed at 67.1% is dropping as well. He had a 42.4 passer rating against for six targets against the Panthers and in the win over the Raiders was at 74.1. The Chargers game was his nightmare game, having allowed 12 completions in 13 targets with a TD, as Justin Herbert singled him out as an easy mark and had the time to attack him.
8. CB Terell Smith
The 86.3 passer rating against and 52.6 completion percentage allowed for only 163 defensive snaps shows there is potential for him to emerge a smash success as a starter. First, there were a few injuries and then mono and he's still sidelined. But nothing he has done to date says he can't be an effective starter. The only thing that could prevent it seems to be if Stevenson becomes the starter the Bears expect and they decide to keep Jaylon Johnson. Then he would be retained in a backup role, but a team could do worse than a backup with the kind of production he has shown when healthy. And he was a fifth-round pick.
9. Elijah Hicks
Hicks has proven he can be a backup in the NFL after a shaky first season with only a few opportunities. He needs to recognize quicker in zone coverage where the spot is being targeted and get there as six TD passes allowed in only eight starts and 647 career plays says. But his passer rating against has dropped from the worst possible number (158.3) to 124.8 this year. He had to start six times this season when he really wasn't ready for it. It's a position the Bears are likely to address in the draft by at least the fourth round but they can be sure they have an experienced backup. The fact they got him with the 254th pick of the draft is a huge plus for Poles' staff.
10. G Ja'Tyre Carter
Another seventh-round success who projects as a backup at guard. It would be better for his future if he could expand horizons to center or show he can back up at tackle, too. He did play tackle in college but it's a different game now. With 207 snaps played, it's apparent where he needs to progress because he has a Pro Football Focus pass blocking grade 26th highest among all 81 guards they graded. But his run blocking was 74th of 81.
The good news is it's easier for most linemen to improve at run blocking because they get to be the attacker. He projects as a possible future back up guard, another plus for the 226th pick of that 2022 draft.
11. Noah Sewell
There is no way to project him a success as a linebacker yet because he has played only 25 defensive plays. But he can be projected successful as a special teams player and backup linebacker because he has been on for 82% of special teams plays in two seasons. He is tied for third in special teams tackles and one of the players he trails is probably not going to see a lot of action any time soon -- Velus Jones Jr., who has four special teams tackles. You expect a fifth-round linebacker to come in and be a special teams contributor but not necessarily an immediate starter. He has done this.
12. P Trenton Gill
After a strong rookie season, Gill has had some consistency issues. He shanked a punt against the Panthers and was a liability trying to cover a punt on a return for a 79-yard TD. The Bears punt coverage hasn't done him any favors this year as 36.7 yards net punting average says. That's 2.3 yards lower than last year, and his touchbacks are up slightly from 4.5% to 5.4%. And that's for the easier part of a punter's schedule. The tough stuff is yet to come. The trend is downward but he has a chance to reverse it.
Jury's Still out
1. DT Zacch Pickens
For a third-round pick, there just hasn't been enough game action to classify him one way or the other. He has been on the field an average of 14.9 plays per game, has 14 tackles and half a sack. PFF has spotted some potential with four grades in the 60s for pass rush but his run defense has been up and down wildly and should be more consistent considering how effective the Bears run defense has been this year at No. 1 in yards allowed per rush.
2. RB Roschon Johnson
Johnson was on the verge of showing enough to he declared a successful pick as a second or third back but then suffered a concussion. He hasn't been the same player since the injury and needs to begin showing this head injury didn't affect a player whose strength was running through contact. Before the injury, he averaged 4.9 yards on 25 rushes and had 11 catches in 12 targets for 5.3 yards a reception. Since the injury he has averaged 3.5 yards on 13 rushes and made eight catches in 11 targets for 4.1 yards a catch. As a rookie, none of this is surprising. He also was contributing on special teams and has begun doing this again.
Miss
1. Velus Jones Jr.
On so many levels the Bears missed here. Jones has been effective returning kicks but they get so few opportunities to do this that it doesn't make sense to have him active when he fails to produce in every other way. There were six receivers drafted behind him who have made more than his 10 receptions, including Green Bay's Romeo Doubs, with 72 catches in 1 1/2 seasons. David Bell and Khalil Shakir have 28 catches. Jones' lack of receptions might be his smallest issue. He's committing penalties on punt coverage, was a muff disaster as a punt returner and constantly is being talked up by coaches so he doesn't get down too far. As an early third-rounder with tremendous athletic ability, more is expected.
2. DE Dominique Robinson
This was a reach to begin with, because Robinson was an offensive player converted to pass rusher only for a short time. But he made very little progress and now is as inactive for games as Jones. Alibiing this off as a fifth-round pick might be possible but Pace's fifth-round pick at the same position, Trevis Gipson, at least had one season with seven sacks. They kept Robinson and cut Gipson, and then got nothing from Robinson so this is a classic failure for Poles.
3. G Zachary Thomas
Gone quickly from the Bears after the Rams plucked him off the practice squad, he only played three games in two years for L.A.
4. RB Trestan Ebner
A sixth-round back who is out of the league after averaging 2.3 yards a rush as a rookie.
5. DT Travis Bell
This year's seventh-rounder is with the Falcons now after being taken off the Bears practice squad. Poles and Eberflus both said he was "their guy" after the draft. Now he's Pace's guy.
6. S Kendall Williamson
Their 2023 seventh-rounder is on the practice squad. When the team promoted other safeties to the 53-man roster during injuries to Eddie Jackson and Brisker and actually signed both Quindell Johnson and Duron Harmon and used them while leaving Johnson on the practice squad, it says little for his chances going forward.
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