Missing the Mark on Justin Fields

The negative national narrative about Justin Fields relies heavily on perceived Bears lack of receiver help and insufficient blocking.

It's part of the reason why people like Mike Clay of ESPN predict Fields will lead the NFL at throwing interceptions. The other reason for these negative predictions about Fields' 2022 season is insufficient credit is given to Fields for what he has already done and they ignore some of the talent he does have available.

The assumption made is Fields starts at a very low baseline because he had a passer rating of 73.2, threw 10 interceptions and had only seven touchdown passes.

The offensive line situation lacks established quality at tackles and sufficient talent at guard but they could still solve this with short-term contracts for a free agent or player cut by another team.

Here is what the predictions of doom fail to take into account about this Bears passing attack. It's enough to show they should be improved over last year, and it's not the kind of situation that should leave Fields throwing 16 interceptions to lead the NFL.

1. Justin Fields' Improvement

Fields already had improved by season's end to a level beyond where many predictions anticipate he'll finish at this year. And he did that playing in a failing, inept offensive system, for a coaching staff about to be fired. It's a different offense now and is led by Luke Getsy, who bases his attack on well-established principles like running and play-action passing. He's formulating plays around player strength and not his own reckless preconceived notion about how an offense must look because Andy Reid did it that way.

Fields actually played two seasons last year when he got on the field for 12 games. He started 10, and over the final five starts made great strides. He had a passer rating of 84.0 with 1,054 yards and 60.43% accuracy for those five starts. He had five touchdown passes to just four interceptions then and averaged a rock-solid 7.58 yards per pass attempt.

Measure that against the 57.25% completions, 816 yards, two touchdowns to six interceptions, 6.2 yards an attempt and 61.8 passer rating he had in his first five starts/seven appearances and it's like night and day.

In addition, Fields showed a better recognition of when he should run out of the pocket or stay put. His rushing yardage improved as a result. He ran for 280 yards on 38 carries and 7.4 yards a carry in the final five games. Before that, he had 140 yards rushing on 34 attempts for a 5.34-yard average. He took 20 sacks in his first five starts, 22 including the game with Cincinnati when he entered the game before halftime. He had only 14 sacks over the final five starts.

Assuming he'll start the season at exactly the same developmental level as where he finished is somewhat of a stretch because he is trying to learn a new offense, but he already knows the speed of play and where he can get by using his own athletic ability.

2. Sneaky Help

The assumption about the Bears receivers being worse than last year is completely false.

It's not difficult to replace a wide receiver who makes 38 receptions on the year. That was 2021 Allen Robinson.

The Bears brought in Byron Pringle. What Pringle gives the Bears that they couldn't get before is more separation at point of reception and as a result more yards after the catch.

Pringle finished tied for second in the NFL with Mecole Hardman, Braxton Barrios, Gerald Everett and Noah Fant for average separation yards at point of catch or incompletion (4.1 yards) according to NextGen Stats. Only Rondale Moore was better.

"I like him with the run after catch," coach Matt Eberflus said. "He does a really good job and is an explosive athlete and I think he's strong. He's got a strong set of hands to catch it in traffic and he does a really good job, like I said, yards after catch.

"He can break some tackles, you can feel his strength, and you can see that on tape. We like where he is."

The same ability after the catch is true about Mooney, although in the old Bears offense he rarely had separation like Pringle did with the Chiefs. Over the past two years, Mooney was the best Bears YAC receiver. He was a slippery runner who managed to avoid tacklers despite being only 173 pounds. Now, according to a story by Dan Pompei of The Athletic, Mooney has added weight and strength and is over 180 pounds. It can only make him better able to elude more tackles.

Can Velus Jones Jr. and/or N'Keal Harry outperform Marquise Goodwin and Damiere Byrd?

Jones ran 4.31 and both Byrd and Goodwin both ran faster when they were coming into the league. For Goodwin, that was a long time ago and he never lived up to his advance billing as a receiver. Byrd showed last year he was better than the coaches gave him credit for being, which isn't surprising. He was probably better than Goodwin but wasn't used enough until after Goodwin came up with injuries like he usually does.

This was a problem with the Bears receivers last year. Key players got hurt over and over.

This group relies on bigger, stronger receivers with speed, not beat-up, older, smaller track athletes.

3. Better Tight End Group

Cole Kmet made a leap in his second year and needs to take a bigger leap, especially near the end zone. But the third season is crucial in development and he's entering it. If he made a big leap to 60 catches last year, he should be able to make a bigger one by being a better red zone receiver this season.

Last year the second, third and fourth tight ends accounted for 23 receptions.

New tight end Ryan Griffin averaged three more than that by himself the last six seasons and James O'Shaughnessy has averaged more than that by himself the last four seasons.

If the Bears can get it blocked, the opportunity exists for Fields to start where he left off and improve. More importantly, he could then avoid throwing 16 interceptions.

Clay has the Bears offensive line ranked last in the league, and that's one rating difficult to dispute. It's the main reason he has Fields leading the league in one other negative category with 49 times sacked.

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