Game by Game Bears Projection
The Bears started building for this 2023 season with the most salary cap space and the first pick in the NFL draft.
Their course of action took numerous turns, from trading the first pick and obtaining DJ Moore, to signing free agents designed to help overcome their deficiencies along the line of scrimmage.
It all comes to a head now with the start of preparation for the Green Bay Packers in the Sept. 10 season opener.
BearDigest attempted a prediction like any other website does after the draft, when players have been gathered. However, many Bears moves came after the end of the draft process and before anyone had even stepped foot on the practice field.
A full training camp and preseason, the signing of Yannick Ngakoue and now it's time to revisit the game-by-game projection for this Bears season. Did anything change?
Week 1: Bears 17, Packers 13
It shouldn't be an offensive showcase by any means because Jordan Love is going to be making his first start as the official No. 1 Packers QB and doing it on the road. Even after three years of preparation and against a team "owned" by the Packers under Aaron Rodgers, it won't be easy. In the end, with the Packers playing tough along the lines of scrimmage and the Bears trying to keep up, it will be the athleticism of Justin Fields making the difference.
Week 2: Buccaneers 23, Bears 10
The offense is obviously going to have some trouble early considering all of the injuries they've had in training camp and preseason on the offensive line, not to mention to Chase Claypool. They'll need some time which they won't have, and trying to beat Baker Mayfield in the Florida heat and humidity will be one step beyond what they can accomplish so early in the season.
Week 3: Chiefs 34, Bears 10
Completely outclassed against the Super Bowl champs, the Bears can't match up on the line of scrimmage with their defense and this is what it takes to win this matchup. Sure, they need to stop Patrick Mahomes but the way to do it is with constant pressure and even after a full off-season of trying to find players to do this, they can't generate enough. KC OC Matt Nagy will of course opt for a late score instead of killing the clock to run it up on his former team.
Week 4: Bears 19, Broncos 16
Returning home after the road loss to Kansas City, the Bears face the Broncos before Sean Payton's coaching influence has taken full root. There are some questions facing Denver about Russell Wilson after last year, and whether he can be the QB for their style of offense. At this point, four weeks into the season, the injuries should start to become less of a factor for the Bears offensive line. Their running game will start to take hold in this win as they get to 2-2.
Week 5: Commanders 24, Bears 17
Washington's defensive front is capable of doing to the Bears offensive line what the Giants did last year. They can bully anyone and should be able to do it much like last year in Chicago when the Bears managed only seven points. Washington's running game should be better this year and any team with the capability of running effectively gives itself a chance against the Bears' one-gap defensive front that includes a mix of veterans who haven't quite been standouts and young players who aren't ready yet.
Week 6: Vikings 33, Bears 24
Minnesota has defensive personnel issues but a competent defensive coordinator and definitely has the offensive firepower to give the Bears defense real headaches. The Bears offense is picking up steam at this point in the year but Fields and DJ Moore and Co. aren't capable of keeping up with the pace set by the Vikings offense and Justin Jefferson. The way to handle the Vikings if they can't outscore them is by dominating the line of scrimmage. The Bears lack the personnel to do this.
Week 7: Raiders 20, Bears 10
The losing streak hits three as Jimmy Garoppolo comes home to Chicago and does what he usually does in Chicago. More alarming is the lack of pass blocking for Fields in this one.
Week 8: Chargers 28, Bears 24
The tide has turned in the Bears season at this point. With the defensive and offensive personnel changes blooming, and time on task now evident, they give Justin Herbert and the Chargers a difficult time. They'll come close to beating Khalil Mack and Co. on the road in a night game but still lose a fourth straight.
Week 9: Bears 23, Saints 20
The Saints tried moving around too many defensive pieces this off-season and Fields is a quarterback who can really hurt a team on artificial turf. The new catch-and-run ability of the Bears is big in this one, as well, with DJ Moore and Khalil Herbert adding to the big-play threat. The New Orleans offense might have a better quarterback than last year but the line isn't what it once was.
Week 10: Bears 28, Panthers 10
Carolina's coaching change, a new QB and the instability associated with all of this is sort of where the Bears were last year. The Panthers aren't coming to Soldier Field on a short work week, a Thursday night, and taking one from the Bears. Look for Fields to have his best game of the season as a passer and Moore to make his old team wish they hadn't traded him. Then D'Onta Foreman puts the game away with some old-fashioned, physical, time-killing runs at game's end against his old team.
Week 11: Lions 23, Bears 16
Back now to 4-6, the Bears are not yet capable of keeping up with a high-powered Lions offense, especially on the line of scrimmage. Fields will be in full scramble mode in this game at Ford Field and they'll lose despite the advantage of a mini-bye week.
Week 12: Vikings 31, Bears 23
The Bears still won't match up against the Vikings until they have a better interior pass rush to keep Kirk Cousins from stepping up and releasing it to Jefferson. They'll be playing catch-up football all day and will do a good job much of the time. But it only takes a few mistakes by rookie Tyrique Stevenson and Jefferson will be off to the races.
Week 13: BYE
A late bye for the second straight year. They could have used one much earlier.
Week 14: Lions 28, Bears 27
The improvement has been building in the Bears offensive line, passing game's timing. Fields takes advantage to keep the game close at Soldier Field coming out of the bye, but Amon-Ra St. Brown has 24 catches for 274 yards against the Bears in four games and continues to torture them even though slot cornerback Kyler Gordon has improved covering inside. It's a late Lions TD and Bears loss.
Week 15: Browns 26, Bears 17
The great weakness of this team could be stopping the run again. They opted for free agent linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards, who have reputations for being strong pass defenders. They brought in lower-cost free agent Andrew Billings at nose tackle and the two rookie defensive tackles will still have a way to go. The Browns' bruising running attack is too much for the Bears to handle in Cleveland, and Deshaun Watson's mobility only adds to their troubles.
Week 16: Bears 34, Cardinals 10
Christmas Eve and if the Cardinals haven't already started tanking in preseason, they will be in full-tank mode by Dec. 24. The Bears running game has it's way in the cold against the warm-weather, wilting team.
Week 17: Bears 27, Falcons 13
Another warm-weather group coming to take a beating at Soldier Field with the Bears defense now in full stride. It's going to take a strong offensive line to handle the Bears at home at this point in the year and the Falcons don't have one.
Week 18: Bears 19, Packers 17
It happens. Really. For the first time since 2007, the Bears sweep Green Bay. They need a heart-stopping finish and last-second Cairo Santos field goal. They finish 7-10, which is what BearDigest also projected after the schedule came out. Only a few matchups have been adjusted since then by what we've seen in off-season work, training camp and preseason.
The real problem will be trying to determine if Fields has progressed enough to be the QB of the future. If they had turned it around completely, it would be a no-brainer. He's going to need some big stat games with his arm instead of his legs to be persuasive.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
