How to Win Cold Cash on Bears and Bills

The Philadelphia Eagles last week against the Bears showed exactly how a passing game exploits an opposing weakness.

Jalen Hurts saw the Bears playing more man-to-man coverage and stood in and fired downfield for 315 passing yards and two touchdowns. That was a zone-based team out of their element and the Eagles exploited it.

Josh Allen should have no problem doing the same this week considering his big arm.

There will be fantasy owners who automatically plug Justin Fields into their lineup for this weekend's fantasy playoffs but it's not the gimmee many seem to think.

Sports Illustrated fantasy expert Michael Fabiano has Fields down as the fourth-best choice to start this week. Naturally, Buffalo's Josh Allen is No. 1. He is going against the shaky Bears defense.

However, Fields' task ahead is no easy one. Even with Khalil Herbert back in the lineup the Bears will find moving the ball against Buffalo's second-ranked scoring defense to be a problem.

The Bills haven't lost a game this season when they had safety Jordan Poyer patrolling and maintaining communications within their secondary. They are 10-0. They didn't have Poyer in four games and were 1-3 in those games. They averaged 404 yards allowed without him. They average 294 yards allowed when he plays. He's playing this week.

That limits what Fields can do. Fields' greatest strength at the moment is not his passing but the planned runs and scrambles. His planned runs come largely behind the wide zone blocking scheme and guards play a key role at getting to the second level when pulling on those plays. They're starting two backup guards on Sunday in the ice box at Soldier Field.

Passing-wise, besides facing Poyer and the Bills' secondary, Fields' receiver options are limited again. The only one he has back this week who he didn't have last week is N'Keal Harry, who has five receptions this season.

Add in temperatures at or below zero with wind chill, and it's not conducive to passing, particularly from offenses that struggle with it. The oddsmakers know this. That's why they had Fields set at 135 1/2 passing yards on the SI Sportsbook.

It's been far easier to pick Fields for your lineup in previous weeks than it is today for fantasy owners.

Here are Saturday's plays in fantasy ball from Bears and Bills at Soldier Field.

Start 'Em

1. Bills QB Josh Allen

Besides his presence as the Bills' top rusher, Allen and his 30 TD passes are going against a Bears secondary without Eddie Jackson, without starting cornerback Kindle Vildor (ankle) and with their top cornerback, Jaylon Johnson, bruised and beat up. Johnson is to be admired for gutting it out but he has had a rib injury and aggravated it last week, plus he has a ring finger that has been in a splint all week and it's not easy to tackle without full use of your hands.

2. Bills RB Devin Singletary

Buffalo will load up the running game because of the conditions being less than friendly for passing the ball. The Bears limited Philadelphia to 112 yards rushing last week and 22 of those came on one mistake by safety Jaquan Brisker when he blitzed the wrong gap and left the middle of the line wide open in man-to-man coverage against a quarterback draw. So it sounds like they stopped a good defense from running, but the Eagles' game plan was attacking the leaking Bears secondary because there is no pass rush to fear. Miles Sanders had only three first-half carries and their backs had only 14 runs in the game. The Bills won't make the same mistake. The Bears are without their best tackler in the second half of the season, middle linebacker Jack Sanborn. They'll try to use the run more, along with shorter passes to backs and tight ends.

3. Bills WR Stefon Diggs

The weather shouldn't hurt the Bills' deep game much. They live in worse conditions in Buffalo than there are in Chicago. Diggs played in the NFC North and knows what this is all about. The grass and possibly frozen turf might slow Diggs some, but his quickness and ability to operate in the middle of the field will make it tough on the Bears secondary. The Bears like to put Johnson in a traveling mode and send him all over the field against the opponent's best receiver. Can they even consider this with Johnson as beat up as he is, and with Diggs' speed a real strength?

4. Bills WR Gabriel Davis

Averaging 17.9 yards a catch, Davis might not get more than three or four targets but when he catches it he makes it worthwhile. Unless the Bears go straight cover-2, he's going to be facing Jaylon Jones and Kyler Gordon much of the time and neither has much experience. For that matter, neither does Brisker, and the other safety, DeAndre Houston-Carson, is normally a backup.

5. Bills TE Dawson Knox

With 43 receptions, he's actually their No. 2 receiver on the year behind Diggs. And with Sanborn gone he'll likely operate against backup Matthew Adams or Joe Thomas and also Brisker. Look for a few catches on big downs from Knox, particularly crossing the field while Allen is rolling out of the pocket.

6. Bears QB Justin Fields

They won't keep him bottled up forever, but whatever he's gaining will be in small increments after the lead is piled up and in the passing game underneath the coverage. The Bills will be looking for overthrews and deflections then in the cold. Without Claypool, Darnell Mooney and Equanimeous St. Brown, Fields will be trying to throw to receivers he has less rapport established with in the passing game.

7. Bills WR Cole Beasley

They just signed him back out of retirement and he didn't get much of a chance last week but this is a good game to work him into the offense against an injured and reeling secondary. It's been a rocky year for Gordon, the Bears slot cornerback. Trying to stay with 5-8, 173-pound McKenzie will be a difficult chore and expect a few big catch-and-run plays from him, or big yards on a jet sweep.

8. Bears TE Cole Kmet

He'll likely wind up with the most targets again and the Bills' linebackers and safeties have been key to their defense limiting opponents' point output. Kmet catching a lot of short passes, like last week against a good defense, seems the most likely scenario.

Sit 'Em

9. Bills WR Isaiah McKenzie

There are only so many footballs to go around and with Beasley coming back, they'll try to work him more into the attack, cutting down on plays to McKenzie.

10. Bears RB David Montgomery

His totals plummeted earlier in the year when Khalil Herbert took on a more prominent role in the offense. It will again with carries limited. He will remain viable as a receiver, though. The running game for the Bears will suffer without their two starting guards, Teven Jenkins and Cody Whitehair.

11. Bears RB Khalil Herbert

Those fantasy owners who had Herbert while he established himself as the league leader for running backs in yards per carry will find things have changed. Herbert is back for the first time in five weeks and the Bears are trying to throw more than back when Herbert was running for 60 or 70 yards to complement Fields' 178-yard rushing effort. When they're behind, they'll eventually have less use for the running game, anyway.

Defense

The Bills are a definite go for team defense in a standard league. Even if Fields is able to manage over 100 yards rushing, the Bears won't have much going for them beyond his runs. They'll also be off the field a lot as Buffalo's offense shouldn't have difficulty establishing ball control. They'll attempt to do it more than Philadelphia did last week, and should succeed against a Bears defensive front badly in need of overhaul in the offseason.

In IDP Leagues, Poyer is a good choice to add to his team-high interception total of four. They could also have a big day in the pass rush from Gregory Rousseau, their sacks leader with seven. The Bears allowed six sacks last week and Fields has been sacked more than any quarterback in the league (46).

Best Bears Bets

The Spread and Total

The Line: Bills by 8 1/2. Over/under 40 1/2.

BearDigest Record: 11-3, 6-7-1 ATS.

BearDigest Pick: Bills 30, Bears 13

Expecting the Bears to give two top playoff contenders tough battles in consecutive games is asking too much, especially with their lineup beaten up and Buffalo relatively healthy.

Top Prop Picks: Devin Singletary over 47 1/2 rushing yards.

Josh Allen under 221 1/2 passing yards.

TICKETS TO SEE JUSTIN FIELDS AND THE BEARS AVAILABLE THROUGH SI TICKETS

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