Why It's Unwise to Assume Nick Foles Starts for Bears
The popular narrative regarding Nick Foles is he'll excel in Matt Nagy's Chicago Bears offense because it's been in this Andy Reid style of attack where he's flourished.
The guarantees have come out that he'll be starter, Pro Football Focus being the latest to project him the winner of this quarterback battle with Mitchell Trubisky.
The comparison is not as clear cut as many would lead you to believe.
The experience of winning a Super Bowl and being MVP for Foles is invaluable, yet only part of his career and no reason to assume he'll start.
Trubisky's attempt to retain the quarterback job cannot be discounted because Foles' career has been plagued by so many drastic rises and declines and he simply hasn't been that good when entrusted with the title of starting quarterback, even within the Andy Reid style of offense.
Foles as Starter
The description of Foles as a lifetime backup is not far from being accurate. It's been uncommon for him to be the starting quarterback for his team.
Foles has been the actual regular-season starter for his team and not a designated starter due to injury or a brief benching of the real starter for only 31 regular-season games.
He performed well in those, but nothing spectacular and certainly nothing close to the two postseasons when he had to step in as the backup for injured Carson Wentz and won four out of five playoff games.
The 31 starts include eight games in 2013 and eight more in 2014 under coach Chip Kelly, 11 games with the Rams in 2015 and four games with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
During those 31 starts he established a respectable 87.8 passer rating with 604 completions on 993 attempts for 7,220 yards and a yards-per-attempt average of 7.3.
Trubisky had a better passer rating (95.4) and yards per attempt (7.4) in 2018 as starter in this offense than Foles had over the course of his 31 games as the starter. In his two years as starter, almost the same number of games started (29) as Foles has had for his career, Trubisky's passer rating is better (88.7) and his yards per attempt is the big drawback. He's averaged only 6.7 yards an attempt.
Foles in the System
The optimism over Foles is based entirely on his success within Andy Reid's offense, either in Philadelphia as a rookie, in Kansas City for a few 2016 games as a backup who had to play, or as the backup for Doug Pederson in Philadelphia when he took over at playoff time for injured Wentz.
The four games in Jacksonville do not count since Jaguars offensive coordinator and new Bears quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo used only half or less of what the Eagles' offense was within the offense he used with Foles.
Within the Reid offense overall in the regular season, Foles is 431 of 671 for 4,469 yards with a passer rating of 87.2 and a yards per attempt of 6.7. He had 24 touchdowns to 13 interceptions.
In starts within that offense for the regular season, his team had an 8-7 record and he went 347 of 548 for 3,519 yards with 18 TDs and 10 interceptions, a passer rating of 84.9 and yards per attempt of 6.4.
Starting in the Andy Reid Offense
(Regular Season)
| Quarterback | Record in Starts | Passer Rating | Yards/Pass Attempt | TDs | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nick Foles | 8-7 | 84.9 | 6.7 | 24 | 13 |
Mitchell Trubisky | 19-10 | 88.7 | 7.05 | 18 | 10 |
Neither the starting numbers within the Reid offense nor the overall numbers rate better than what Trubisky has done with a 19-10 record in the Reid/Nagy offense: 615 of 950, 6,361 yards, 41 TDs to 21 interceptions with an 88.7 passer rating and 6.7 yards an attempt.
The Matchup
Look at the one time the two quarterbacks matched up in the 2018 playoffs. There wasn't a huge difference in that game, as they worked behind different teams but in very similar offensive systems.
Trubisky went 26 of 43 for 303 yards with a touchdown. He had a 89.6 passer rating with 7.05 yards an attempt.
Foles was 25 of 40 for 266 yards with two touchdowns, an interception, a passer rating of 77.7 and yards per attempt of 6.6.
If Foles was that much better than Trubisky, he had a funny way of showing it. He put up less efficient numbers and then Trubisky moved his team in for the win, only to watch Cody Parkey kick it away.
The Difference
Foles hasn't been much as a starting quarterback except when forced to play over two years in the postseason. He throws more deeper passes with marginally better success than Trubisky.
Trubisky has actually been more efficient within this offensive system statistically but the eye test says he has made too many risky or stupid throws that he got away with in many games.
Is it a reason to think he automatically loses the battle? Perhaps not automatically, but it's enough to tilt the table Foles' way.
Then again, quarterbacks progress as Pace is always quick to point out.
"I think the dividends can pay off if it comes to fruition," Pace said at the end of last season. "Again, we've seen this before with young quarterbacks, the trials and tribulations they go through. It's part of it.
"Sometimes if you stick with it, you see it through, you're dedicated to the development of the process, that can be very beneficial to the organization long term."
With only a little improvement Trubisky could easily be better than a quarterback who hasn't been wildly more successful as a regular-season starter in the past within the same offense.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
