Far-Reaching Effects for Bears
The action and reaction involved with any NFL personnel move now affects the Bears after trading a fourth-round draft pick for wide receiver Keenan Allen.
That is, for every move made, there are ramifications.
It goes beyond bringing in a receiver who has averaged 58 first-down receptions over the last six seasons and last year had 108 catches when he missed four games with an injury. What would he have done with a full season?
Allen will no doubt help the Bears open up their offense.
Here are the ramifications of acquiring a receiver whose catch percentage has been 63.6% or higher every single one of the 11 seasons he has played.
Going Defense in the Draft
Don't look for the Bears to go defense with the ninth pick after they select Caleb Williams at No. 1. In fact, they might even spend all three of their remaining draft picks on defense after drafting Williams. At the very least, it would seem the next two should be defense.
They'll be in position at No. 9 to draft the best edge rusher in the draft. At worst, they'd be in position to draft the second-best edge rusher.
If they chose to focus on 3-technique instead, they could move back and do this because the best defensive tackle or the consensus best at least on NFL Mock Draft Data Base is Byron Murphy from Texas and he's a player mocked most often to go four spots after the Bears pick at No. 9. Murphy isn't an ideal Bears 3-technique because of his lack of height at 6-foot and 1/2-inch, 297 pounds. But he ran a 40 time of 4.87 seconds and that's top 9% of all combine defensive tackles ever according to Mockdraftable.com.
Regardless, taking one of the top three receivers here doesn't make much sense when they have a potential third receiver in Tyler Scott or can go after one in Rounds 3 or 4.
A starting, effective 3-technique is always more important than a third wide receiver and a second starting edge definitely is more important that a third receiver in any offense.
Trade Back Possibility
Because their need is more defense at No. 9, and they have only four draft picks now, there is a good possibility they'll entertain thoughts of trading back at No. 9.
The best scenario would be picking up at least a second-rounder while swapping first-round picks. In order to go back from No. 9 and obtain a second-round pick, the Bears would most likely need to trade back with Cincinnati at No. 18, the Rams at No. 19 or Pittsburgh at No. 20. Those teams have second-round picks. The Bengals might be looking for a second receiver if they eventually decided to trade Tee Higgins. The Rams might be looking for a quarterback to get prepared for Matthew Stafford's eventual retirement as he's 36 years old. The Steelers definitely would be thinking receiver after trading Diontae Johnson. All could get what they need by trading up with the Bears and giving up a second-rounder after swapping out first-round picks.
The Bears won't get a second-rounder in return if it's Denver they move back with because the Broncos don't have one. It would need to be a 2025 second-rounder and those don't carry the same value as this year's second-rounder. Also, the Raiders would be interested in moving up for a long-term answer at quarterback but the Bears couldn't get the 44th pick from them for a move back from No. 9 to No. 13, according to both the Draftek value chart and Pro Football Focus' draft simulator.
Capped Out
There is the chance the Poles could add a low-cost free agent or two but they are capped out for now. They absorbed $23.1 million in cap hit with the Allen trade, $18.1 million in salary and $5 million in bonus. Spotrac.com says the Chargers absorbed $11 million-plus of dead cap. The Bears had about $44 million in available cap space before the trade, according to Overthecap.com. They need at least $10 million for normal business during the course of the season, meaning to pick players up in case of injuries.
Return of Timing Offense
The timing passing game went out the window with Justin Fields at quarterback. Throwing on three steps or five steps on short routes to receivers didn't work well. Fields doesn't throw short passes accurately and doesn't throwing well or often over the middle even at intermediate depths.
Think about how many times he threw slant passes. Almost never.
However, Caleb Williams does throw the slant and it's considered one strength of his. It's a route done on time.
Besides the quarterback, you need the receivers who are going to be open. Moore can get open but with two receivers who can be open on routes like this, the entire middle of the field opens up.
More Yards Per Catch
Opening up the middle of the field means more yards after the catch. The Bears were 27th in YAC last year. This was an improvement over last in 2022 and 31st under Matt Nagy in 2021. They are desperate to get that field opened up and two outstanding receiver on the outside should do it. The tight ends and slot receivers can operate more freely, as well as backs coming out in routes.
More yards after the catch leads to more first downs.
DJ Moore averaged 52 first down catches per season over the last six years and Allen 58. They both are go-to players on third down and with more than one legitimate receiving threat on third downs, the Bears are more likely to avoid bogging down on marches.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
