Potential Bears Trading Partners for No. 9
Bears GM Ryan Poles has no problem talking openly about the prospect of trading down again in the draft, or up.
"As you know from the first draft with me, we did a lot of movement back," he told Halas Hall media March 16 about trading down. "But then maybe there's some movement back and then going the other way, too."
Poles was at it again on Thursday from the Alabama Pro Day, according to Sun-Times writer Jason Lieser.
"We're open to that," Poles told Lieser. "It depends on what the deals look like, but there's also multiple drop-offs as you go back throughout the draft.
"So we might not think that's the best way to go because a certain drop-off at a certain premium position might be coming up soon. We stay fluid."
Poles should be open to trades. They happen so much in drafts these days that no one bats an eyelash when they occur.
Last year there were 35 trades made in the entire draft. There were nine made in Round 1 on the first day of the draft alone, like the AJ Brown trade. This doesn't count those Round 1 deals made in advance of the draft involving first-round picks like the Russell Wilson deal, or the one made the year before when the Bears gave up their first-rounder so they could draft Justin Fields.
A team sitting at No. 9 should be willing to go back, just like the Bears should be willing to move up in Round 2 or even into the bottom of Round 1 by using their 53rd, 61st and 64th picks.
Who the Bears would deal with is far more difficult to predict in a trade down than with the original trade down from No. 1 to No. 9 because of what teams could be seeking.
In the first trade, it was all about the quarterbacks but at No. 9 it could be any number of teams for any number of positions. However, with four quarterbacks now in the picture for Round 1, it's possible one of those top four would slip past No. 8 to where the Bears sit. It's no certainty all four would be gone at that point.
Will Levis or Anthony Richardson could drop. If they didn't, another scarce commodity is a special running back and Bijan Robinson could cause some team to want to move up to No. 9 from back in the Round 1 pack.
What teams would need to pay the Bears for that ninth pick would be determined by how far back they came from to take the pick.
The Bears know this from 2021, when they moved up from No. 20 to No. 11 and gave up the 20th pick, their 2022 first-round pick, a 2021 fifth-rounder and 2022 fourth-rounder to select Justin Fields.
It will be more of a wait-and-see approach with any such trade and not a deal like when the Bears moved back from No. 1 to No. 9. All would depend on whether all four quarterbacks went in those first eight picks.
Based on this, here's who looks most likely to want to move up.
1. Tennessee Titans
They can't be too set on Ryan Tannehill and Malik Willis. They haven't extended Tannehill and his contract is up after this year. Willis had a 42.8 passer rating in three starts and eight appearances last year, which doesn't say much for him. Sadly for the Bears, this deal wouldn't net much in return. On the value chart teams use, a move from No. 11 to No. 9 is only worth 100 points, the equivalent of a late third-round pick back in the area of the third-round compensatories. The Titans don't have a pick in Round 3 that far down. Their third-round pick is worth 230 points at No. 72, so the Bears might need to take a fourth-rounder in this case. The Bears could be better off drafting someone at No. 9 than trading down with the Titans. They also would need to consider who picks behind them in this case. The Eagles would be looking for defensive line help and are at No. 10. Move back two places and if the Bears were thinking defensive line, and then they might lose the chance at the player they want.
2. Washington Commanders
Ron Rivera is doing his best to try and convince everyone Sam Howell is a potential starting quarterback. Getting one of the four top QBs, if one fell to No. 9, would make their QB situation much easier to sell to the Washington skeptics. A trade with the Commanders for their second-round pick would be much easier for the Bears to execute. It's No. 47. The Bears would need to offer up one of their own fourth-round picks along with No. 9 to balance out the drop down and second-round Washington pick.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady is gone. Tampa Bay is thinking Kyle Trask or Baker Mayfield for this year, which means they'd better have a tremendous running game and defense. Getting one of the top four QBs would be much better. Dropping down to Tampa Bay's spot at No. 19 from No. 9 would be a lot like what the Giants did in that trade they made with the Bears when Fields was selected. The value chart says the second-round Tampa Bay pick at No. 50 wouldn't be enough, and the Buccaneers would need to give up either their compensatory third-rounder or a fourth-rounder and fifth-rounder.
4. Dallas Cowboys
They're not looking for a quarterback, although from listening to Cowboys fans on social media there is a definite undercurrent of support for ending the Dak Prescott era.
They'd be looking to keep Robinson in the great state of Texas, because Anthony Pollard is franchised and Ezekiel Elliott is gone. In fact, you'd have to think Dallas is willing to go up past No. 9 to try to get a native son ball carrier so good. They might not have Pollard next year since he is franchised now. Moving up to No. 9 or even higher would take a steep toll on Dallas picks for the future. After all, they aren't picking until No. 26. Would the Bears want to move all the way back from 9 to 26? At the very least, it would cost this year's and next year's second-round picks and this year's third-round picks—or next year's first-round pick and this year's third-round pick. If the Bears took that first-round pick next year, they would have three first-round picks in 2024, which sets them up very well to move up and draft Caleb Williams if Fields fails this year, or to move up and draft Marvin Harrison Jr. if Fields succeeds.
5. Baltimore Ravens
They could look to move up for two different reasons, depending on whether they actually ever resolve this standoff with Lamar Jackson. It's more likely they'd be interested in a running back. They used the committe approach last year with Kenyan Drake, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill last year and no one had more than 520 yards. Committee's are fine but maybe one committee member who can scare the daylights out of defenses like Robinson can would be better. The Ravens are in the 22nd position so this would bring a good haul for the Bears while leaving them in position to pick an offensive or defensive lineman, though not someone in the class of Peter Skoronski, Paris Johnson Jr. or Tyree Wilson.
6. Philadelphia Eagles
Moving down one spot doesn't do much for the Bears and moving down to the other Eagles first-round pick doesn't either. It's No. 30. Plus, they'd be dealing with Howie Roseman and that's always an invitation to have your pocket picked. They would get a real truck full of picks to draft 30th, including a first-rounder next year. It's not going to help much for this year. By No. 30, the Bears not only would miss on the top offensive linemen and edge rushers, but possibly both of the three techniques everyone raved about after the combine—Calijah Kancey and Adetomiwa Adebawore. The Eagles sure would like this, though. They could really replace Miles Sanders and get a replacement for Javon Hargrave with back-to-back picks at Nos. 9 and 10. They also could prevent Dallas from getting in position to pick Robinson.
7. Minnesota Vikings
It's not the Vikings' 23rd pick that is the problem here. The Bears could make that work with proper second-round or future considerations. The Vikings haven't extended Kirk Cousins, so the Bears could be setting up a division rival to draft their quarterback of the future. That's not advisable. If you're going to take the North and not give it back, why would you set up a rival from the North with a starting QB? Then again, the Lions and Vikings made a two trades involving Day 1 and Day 2 draft picks in 2022 and no one seemed to care about it.
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