Teams with Much to Offer Bears
The first pick in the draft is a lot like the weather in the quote often attributed to Mark Twain.
Everyone always talks about trading the first pick of the draft but no one does anything about it.
Trading the first pick doesn't really happen much.
The gambling website Betonline.ag says the Bears are favored to trade it, and gives 5-9 odds on it with 7-5 odds that they won't. Alabama quarterback Bryce Young is the betting favorite there at +100 so Justin Fields fans need to hope there is a trade.
GM Ryan Poles won't discount it happening.
"We can evaluate the talent there, we can see what player presents themselves in that position to help us, and then we can look at the scenarios," Poles said. "If the phones go off and there are certain situations where that can help us, then we'll go down that avenue, too.
"I think we have really good flexibility to help this team, regardless if it's making the pick there or moving back a little bit or moving back a lot. We'll be open to everything."
Trading the first pick has only happened once since the Bears last went to the Super Bowl.
That occurred when the Rams traded up from all the way back at No. 15 to get the first pick and select Jared Goff in the 2016 draft. A move of that type is even more rare than a trade up.
Part of the problem with trading the first pick is it is too valuable for interested teams to acquire. Teams use a draft value chart for the picks and unless a team is willing to give up three or four very high picks, they're probably unable to afford a trade.
So history suggests the Bears will select first, probably a defensive lineman if they're true to their most critical needs.
History isn't everything. Situations vary from year to year and this draft seems to be setting up for a trade down once, if not twice.
Teams in need of quarterbacks are everywhere and the quality and quantity of suitable veteran free agents at this position seem to shrink each year.
The Bears will likely sort through offers for the pick and the leadup to the draft is critical, as they try to figure out if there are other defensive linemen they could take later in Round 1 or in subsequent rounds who could give them results even better and faster than they might get from Georgia's Jalen Carter and/or Alabama's Will Anderson Jr.
Here are the most likely to wind up as trading partners, if such a thing even happens.
Prime Candidates
1. Texans
This could look like 2004 when the Chargers drafted Eli Manning to trade to the Giants, then moved down and took LaDainian Tomlinson. Davis Mills is unlikely to be the quarterback choice for a new coach in Houston. They may not get this opportunity to get one of the top QBs in the draft in the future, and this is one team that wouldn't really need to give up a lot to move up from No. 2 to No. 1. That's the equivalent of a mid-second round pick on the draft value chart teams use. Why would the QB-needy Texans be moving up when they know the Bears are drafting first and need defense, and have said Justin Fields will be their starter in 2023? Because some other team could easily trade ahead of them and select the quarterback they really rated No. 1. It's what Ryan Pace was worried about when he wanted Mitchell Trubisky, except it's something that can really happen.
THE NFL DRAFT PICK VALUE CHART
2. Seahawks
Seattle is in the playoffs with Geno Smith at quarterback. He definitely isn't a long-term answer and time is ticking on Pete Carroll's coaching career. Smith went seven seasons with 34 touchdown passes and then threw 30 this year. It would be difficult to argue he's not a one-year wonder. Carroll won a Super Bowl with Russell Wilson as a very young quarterback and wouldn't have a problem drafting one. The Seahawks rate as a better team for the Bears to deal with here than the Colts. The Bears would only need to slide down to third. As a result, they would be virtually guaranteed of getting one of the top two defensive linemen in the draft, unless some team wanted to give up their house to move up for defensive linemen. The Seahawks would be a more likely trading partner than Indy because they have more to offer and would be hurt less by surrendering picks. They own four of the first 54 picks in the draft. They have two second-round picks and two first-round picks in 2023.
3. Colts
Indianapolis is easily the most desperate to make a deal with the Bears. They've been looking unsuccessfully to establish a real starting quarterback long-term since Andrew Luck left, and they have GM Chris Ballard saying at his postseason press conference he'll do everything it takes to get one. As such, they'll be able to rate higher than other teams in need. The problem for the Bears with choosing the Colts as a trade partner is they'd drop to fourth. They might not get Carter or Anderson at No. 4 so they better have high opinions of defensive linemen Tyree Wilson, Myles Murphy and Jared Verse. The other reason a trade with the Colts would be less likely than Seattle or Houston is the Colts could just pick the second quarterback in the draft at No. 4, although they run the risk one other team needing a QB can trade ahead of them.
4. Raiders
Josh McDaniel has already sacked Derek Carr. The spot is wide open for the next Raiders QB and they're just waiting to draft one. McDaniel's success has been with pocket passers Tom Brady and Mac Jones. He didn't succeed with Cam Newton as his QB in New England. He might not be willing to trade up to select a QB who is 6-foot or shorter like Bryce Young. This requires the Bears dropping down to seventh and they might still have a chance at a pass rusher but this also brings into play tackle Peter Skoronski from Northwestern, a player Poles is very familiar with. The Raiders have the 38th pick and one third-rounder too but it's going to cost a lot to move up to No. 1 from 7.
5. Panthers
Quarterback has been a bigger mess for Carolina than the Colts since the fall of Cam Newton. It's part of the reason they've repeatedly switched quarterbacks. This moves the Bears back all the way to ninth. It's a steep drop. However, Carolina does have two second-round picks at 39 and 60. The Bears can definitely use second-round picks besides the one they got from Baltimore for Roquan Smith. However, all three of the top three Panthers picks don't come close to being equal to the value of the first pick in the draft. They'll be coughing up picks from next year too.
Needy and Can't Afford No. 1
6. Falcons
Is Desmond Ridder really the player they're entrusting the offense to for the future? The have the 45th pick in the draft besides the eighth pick if they want to move up. Those two spots only account for two-thirds of the value of the Bears' first pick so they'd need to offer more.
7. Titans
The drop to 11 would be steep for the Bears. They could trade the 11th and 41st picks to the Bears and would still need to cough up a first-rounder next year and another Day 2 pick.
8. Jets
The Jets say they haven't given up on Zach Wilson. They sure show it in a strange way. Mike White is not a long-term answer. They'd be more likely to try and sign free agent Jimmy Garoppolo than get the top pick in the draft because the Bears would need an awful lot to drop all the way down to 13th. The Jets have a lot of picks in this draft, but most of them are on Day 3. The Bears already went that way in 2022 and you don't find many gems that late.
9. Commanders
The Carson Wentz experiment appears over. They don't really appreciate Taylor Heinicke. The need is great here to move up but it's a long drop to 16 and the Commanders don't have the capital to make up the difference to the Bears.
10. Buccaneers
Tom Brady is 46 and without a contract. It doesn't take much imagination to see Brady leaving Tampa in free agency. His old offensive coordinator is running the Raiders now. Tampa Bay couldn't convince the Bears to drop to 19th in Round 1. The 19th pick is worth 900 points on the chart and No. 1 worth 3,000.
Less Need, Picks Available
11. Lions
The latest word from the Lions is they do not consider Jared Goff a bridge quarterback. Really? His career has been about big dips and rises in productivity. They do have plenty to trade, though. They have two of the top 18 picks in Round 1, four of the top 59 picks and the sixth pick overall. The Lions are probably the worst Bears enemy in this draft because they'll be looking to take defensive tackles, linebackers and defensive backs like the Bears. Their defense is leaky beyond their two good edge rushers. But if they want to take another real impact player at the top, quarterback or not, they have a lot to offer the Bears in a trade.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
