Learning from the Playoff Teams

The first weekend of playoff games provided the Bears with a pathway to postseason success.

First, they need to worry about winning a game rather than winning a playoff game.

It's still a good idea to keep in mind what success in postseason looks like because GM Ryan Poles said the goal is for "sustained success." They're not seeking a playoff appearance and loss once every decade.

The biggest takeaway from those games was the fact they are nowhere near being a team with playoff potential and they need the draft and $100 million-plus in cap space for free agency just to get close again. This much was apparent in the regular season, though.

It used to be the divisional playoffs revealed much less in this regard but with every team playing except the top seeds, it's more clear what's necessary simply from watching the six games played in the first week.

Here's what needs to be done.

1. Score

The most obvious takeaway from the games is an offense capable of putting up big point totals against any opponent.

Considering the Bears were 28th on offense, 23rd in scoring and had no games in their final six where they went above 20 points, they've got miles to go no matter how much of a big-play threat Justin Fields is.

The average winning total in the playoff games was 32 points. Five of the six winners hit 31 points or more. The losing average was 24.8 points. Even reaching 30 points didn't guarantee success, as the Chargers and Dolphins discovered.

2. Passing Emphasis

Four of the six winners had more passing yards than the losers. Five of the six winners had 288 passing yards or more.

The only winning team not to pass for that much was a total aberration. The Bengals had only 209 passing yards. It was only 17 yards less than the Ravens but the entire difference in that evenly matched game boiled down to 179 yards. The Ravens marched 81 yards to the 1-yard line and Tyler Huntley lost it when he stuck the ball out, resulting in a 98-yard swing the other way by Sam Hubbard. That's 98 yards and seven points their offense didn't need to account for and 81 wasted Baltimore yards. This was the only game where the losing team outgained the winning team and that drive and the return were the reasons.

The Bears need better pass blocking, better receivers and better coordination of the passing game. Justin Fields needs to get the ball out faster

3. Run When Necessary

The old adage in the NFL is pass to score and run to win. It's still in effect, although to a bit lesser extent.

The running game is the mortar holding the bricks, or passing game, in place. In five of the six games, the winning team outrushed the losing team.

The only difference was the Baltimore loss. The Ravens' offense is not a conventional NFL approach. It's more like the one the Bears relied on this year and requires risking the quarterback's health. Huntley had to play because Lamar Jackson was out injured. Would the Ravens had won if Jackson was available? Huntley didn't perform poorly except for one play at the goal line.

The Bears saw Justin Fields get hurt twice during the season. That should be enough to discourgage this type of play in the future.

"That balance has to happen, yes," Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy said at his final press conference. "I think that to be sustainably good, you have to have more balance. That’s real. We know that.

"But we look at each individual on our team, and we say, 'what's the best way for us to win a game?' We're going to take that approach every single week as long as I'm here."

The answer to the question he asks every week better be to balance the attack or they'll never get to the sustained success Poles wants. Possibly, they might not get to any success, sustained or even brief.

4. Situational Defense

Defenses don't need to dominate but do need to rise up in situations and need to take away the ball.

The HITS principle of Matt Eberflus has this right. They've emphasized both.

The takeaway edge doesn't necessarily prove as big as some coaches think. It was three winners for the team that won the takeaway battle and one winner had a standoff in takeaways. Two teams made more turnovers and won. One was an aberration for the ages—the Jaguars made five turnovers and took it away zero times, but still found a way to win. There are long odds against this

Red zone and third-down defense are critical. No greater example of red zone defense existed than the 98-yard game-changing TD return.

In four of the six games the team with the better third-down percentage won. One of those games that went the other way was almost even. The only variant was the weird Chargers and Jaguars game with the 27-point comeback and five turnovers made by the winners.

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