Going All In for a QB Can Ruin a Good Defense
Numerous reports claiming the Bears are all in or taking every possible step toward getting Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson to Chicago must naturally be taken for what they are worth.
If the Bears don't say they're at least making every attempt to upgrade at quarterback, they are going to look especially bad when their ultimate answer for next season is Nick Foles, Alex Smith and a second-round draft pick. This is more like where they are headed, though, because it is quite impossible for them to obtain either Wilson or Watson. And they might miss the boat on every first-round draft pick at quarterback.
They need to make the effort, though.
It remains unlikely they'd ever be able to convince Seattle it was in its best interest to eat $39 million in cap space in order to get rid of its own quarterback just because his feelings were hurt.
It's more likely they could convince Houston to trade Deshaun Watson because he has already demanded a trade and reportedly said he'd sit out games if Houston keeps him. There also is every bit of evidence the ownership situation there is not player-friendly, and the fence cannot be mended.
However, obtaining Watson is another level of this mess entirely when there are eight or 10 other teams with more to offer than the Bears.
If the Bears are pursuing Watson—or even Wilson—the only way they're going to dislodge them is by offering players in addition to their feeble 20th pick in Round 1 and 52nd pick for Round 2.
Trading Khalil Mack and other assets
Trading Khalil Mack is a possibility because the Bears would receive an overall cap savings of $5.246 million by losing his contract off their allowable cap space for this year. It wouldn't be that way if they cut him, but the trade would leave some of his cap hit up to his new team so it would save the Bears space.
At 30, Mack has time left to make plenty of sacks, but not enough to make him a centerpiece of any trade for a quarterback. Plus, his injury last year clouds his value in the market. He is said to have a shoulder injury that didn't require surgery. He definitely seemed diminished last year despite producing decent numbers and earning a Pro Football Focus grade as high as any he's ever had.
Bears draft picks are so poor in relation to the other teams competing for Watson that they most likely would need to throw in several more players of value.
Akiem Hicks isn't really a player the Texans would necessarily covet. He's turning 32 this season and is more of a two-gap defender on the defensive line. Lovie Smith's defense uses a one-gap approach.
The Texans had a terrible defense last year and they may want Roquan Smith in a deal, as well as other younger players also on rookie contracts like Jaylon Johnson and Bilal Nichols. In Lovie Smith's defense, Nichols could be especially effective.
Trading away defensive talent and the team's strength is a delicate matter. Offense alone does not win a Super Bowl despite what people see from Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady.
Defense still counts
Tampa Bay won the title for two reasons, and the first was a defense that dominated Mahomes and the Chiefs. The second was Brady doing enough with the offense and not making big mistakes so there was even greater pressure on Mahomes to respond.
Even in the previous Super Bowl, defense mattered. The Chiefs weren't good enough when they had Alex Smith to win a playoff game. They were 30th on defense in 2018 and reached the AFC championship using Mahomes' brilliance but couldn't take the next step. They finally improved with a new defensive coordinator and several new players to 17th and 16th on defense and made two straight Super Bowls.
Houston was in an AFC title game because of Watson's great abilities even with the 28th-ranked defense. They dropped all the way to 31st last year and were atrocious and Watson couldn't elevate them.
Seattle had Wilson in 2015 and 2016 when they were also second and fifth on defense respectively and didn't get to the NFC championship game.
In 2017 they were still 11th on defense and didn't even make the playoffs. Wilson has been there every year since they last were in a Super Bowl and they've had both good and bad defenses and they haven't returned to a conference title game.
So, you have to wonder how much Wilson actually can elevate a team as he now is 33.
Dallas is looking at either a franchise tag to keep Dak Prescott or a huge contract, but they've been mediocre even with him because their defense has struggled.
What is obvious is you still need some defense to win big consistently, even with a dominant quarterback.
The Bears will be walking a tightrope if they start throwing too many of their defensive players into deals for quarterbacks.
They no longer have the same defensive leadership on the coaching staff to convert young players into valuable defensive players.
Much has changed with their defense since 2018.
Take more players away and try inserting younger players who may or may not be as good and the effect could be something like Houston had last year with Watson and no defensive help. Or maybe it's an average defense but one not quite good enough to help a brilliant quarterback.
It's a delicate balance and a great defense should not be one quickly dispersed simply because the GM has failed so far to find a quarterback in the past.
They have to approach such moves with care and adequate options in mind to replace any lost defensive players. If they have someone who can take the place of a Roquan Smith and Khalil Mack, then those players must have been wearing disguises in the past.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
