Bear Digest

Point Break: What Chart Says Bears Can Get

Analysis; The point system with Jimmy Johnson's NFL draft value chart says there is only a limited list of teams capable of trading up for the Bears' No. 1 pick.
Gene Chamberlain|
Point Break: What Chart Says Bears Can Get
Point Break: What Chart Says Bears Can Get

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Chicago Bears

Sadly, every year at this time the draft value chart seems to become a Bears fan's best friend.

It's that way for all desperate teams picking near the top of the draft.

Originally devised in the early 1990s by Jimmy Johnson, the chart has been revised over the years because the way teams value picks changes with time. Drafttek.com does a good job updating its version to reflect change.

With the Bears holding the first pick again, there is a perception they can make a real haul if they decided to trade down like last year—the key words here being "like last year."

"I'm sure there's going to be similar situations in terms of the trade back, and I've got to weigh all of those things to see what's going to help our team take the next step," Bears GM Ryan Poles said. 

The Bears went all the way down from No. 1 to No. 9 last year when they stole away DJ Moore from Carolina.

A drop of this magnitude is huge and not normal. It almost certainly requires a veteran star thrown into the mix unless a team wants to totally mortgage its future to move up. 

There's another side to such a steep trade downward for the Bears.

The Bears needed a drop down to No. 9 last year because their roster required qualified bodies following the 2022 gutting of their roster from their rebuild. Such a deal seems much less likely now because their roster doesn't have as many holes. 

So it definitely would require a very high-quality veteran player to catch their attention.

It's much more likely the Bears now would drop down only slightly from the first spot if they even did at all, although there are numerous teams picking later in Round 1 who need a quarterback. The reason for this is the value chart really dictates few teams have a chance to move up and get that pick.

Here's how the chart works. As an example, if Washington had its eyes on Caleb Williams over Drake Maye, the Bears could go down one spot and the chart says the Commanders only owe them the equivalent of the 50th pick in Round 2.

Washington's actual second-round pick is worth 540 points and the difference between the first pick (3,000) and second pick (2,600) is only 400 points. So the Bears would need to give something back to the Commanders after getting Washington's second overall pick in Round 1 and second-round pick.

The value chart always surprises people this way. They often think giving up the first pick automatically dictates receiving four or five picks in exchange. Of course it doesn't if the move down is only one spot. Chicago fans are especially surprised by this because their own former general manager once gave up a lot of picks to move ahead one spot in order to draft Mitchell Trubisky. It only shows how totally horrible this move was.

The big value drop really comes after the second pick, if the Bears do move down.

If New England, at No. 3, wants the first pick, then it needs to offer its second-round pick, No. 34 overall, and probably its third-round pick, in addition to the third overall pick of this year's draft. There's only a 10-point difference between the teams with those trade terms. This is the equivalent of a late sixth-round pick. The Bears would have trouble making up that difference in this draft because they don't have a pick after the fifth round to throw into the mix. So they might need to turn to the 2025 draft to complete such a move.

The list of teams who could hope to trade up for the first pick potentially could be a long one based on Williams' perceived talent and the need for a starting franchise QB. However, there are really only a handful of teams capable of making a move like this unless they totally sold out their futures like Mike Ditka once did in New Orleans by trading  for Ricky Williams.

Here's who could be dialing up Poles based on the Jimmy Johnson point scale, in case the Bears really are willing to entertain offers.

2. Commanders

Sam Howell's rookie year did nothing to convince anyone he's the next Joe Theismann or even Doug Williams. If they want a possible future Super Bowl QB, they can easily sit there and take Maye. Many scouts feel he's right there with Williams as a prospect because of his 6-foot-5 height and great arm strength. However, trading up to No. 1 is always a possibilty if they really covet Williams' combination of mobility and ability to pick out receivers downfield while moving.

3. Patriots

Does a new head coach from the defensive side value one of those top two quarterbacks more than the best receiver in the draft? Marvin Harrison Jr.? Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe definitely disappointed the last two years and a QB is needed. The 800-point difference, or the equivalent of the draft's third pick overall, a second- and a third-round pick is a steep price to pay merely to go up two spots. But the difference might be taking a QB no one really wants to take. They can always sit and take their chances with LSU's Jayden Daniels and forget about Williams.  Maybe they would go looking for lightning in a bottle and draft J.J. McCarthy because his status as a heady winner from Michigan reminds them of another QB they once had from that school.

6. Giants

Sure, they could simply stick with their big mistake. They paid Daniel Jones $40 million a year. Or, they could go out and try to get the first pick. Besides giving up their sixth pick in Round 1, New York would then need to make up a 1,400-point difference in the value chart. That's like giving up their second-round pick this year and their first- and second-round picks next year. Picks for next year are only valued this year at the level of the top pick in the next round, according to those who make these charts. So the Giants' first-round pick next year at this point would be worth only 580 and second-round pick in 2025 worth 265. Their second-rounder this year is worth 510. That all adds up to 1,365 points and not 1,400. So New York would need to come up with yet another later pick to give the Bears, probably a fifth-rounder (35 points). The Giants could always just give them Dexter Lawrence and negotiate the rest of the compensation. Bears offensive linemen have expressed a real fear of Lawrence. So have other teams.

8. Falcons

Their first-round pick at No. 8 overall is only worth 1,400 points. So, besides giving that one to the Bears, they would need to give up a draft pick package similar to what the Giants would need to surrender PLUS their third-round pick for this year's draft.

10. Jets

Aaron Rodgers is older than many assistant coaches now. The other quarterbacks on their roster are not even good backups, let alone possible passers for their future. Zach Wilson is officially a bust. Sure the Jets would be interested in trading up but the 10th pick is only worth 1,300 points. To make up the difference, they'd need to offer their 10th pick plus their first-round picks for 2025 and 2026 (1,160 points), their second-round picks for 2025 and 2026 because they don't have a second-rounder this year (530 points), and maybe a sixth-round pick somewhere in the next two years. Based on how the Bears value second-round picks, they would really want a second-round pick from this draft. So, a deal might not even be possible.  

12. Broncos

Denver is too far back to be of interest as a trading partner. Offering a veteran besides picks could be an avenue, but when teams do this it must be a very high-quality player at a need position for the team they're swapping picks with, and Bears needs are wide receiver, defensive end, defensive tackle and center.  

13. Raiders

The Raiders are in worse position than the Broncos for this kind of leap up in the draft, but if they included Maxx Crosby and a stack of picks they would have a much better chance of pulling off the move up than Denver because Crosby is an All-Pro at a Bears need position.

Others

There is a long list of teams besides those who would want to trade up for Williams, but they're just not in position to offer realistic packages. A team like the Chargers could conceivably make a deal if they decided they could include QB Justin Herbert in the trade.

The Vikings badly need another quarterback because Kirk Cousins is a free agent and 36 years old in 2024, but scratch them off the list. No team in their right mind would trade the first pick of the draft to a division rival.

With a sad sack collection of quarterbacks accumulated, Pittsburgh badly needs an upgrade. The Steelers would almost be better off convincing Ben Roethlisberger to come back from retirement than count on the lot they have. Kenny Pickett hasn't done it. They lack the veteran difference maker to interest the Bears into moving all the way back down to 20th in Round 1. However, if the Bears decided to take Williams or to draft Maye instead by trading down to the second pick in a deal with Washington, then Justin Fields would be available for a trade.

Working out the value of a Fields trade is an entirely different matter, and one for debate on another day.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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