The Volatile Mix in the 2021 Chicago Bears
It's possible the mix of players assembled by Ryan Pace and coached into a team by Matt Nagy could ignite when the Bears kick off the season Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams.
It also could take a few weeks to pull it all together, considering their starting left tackle was on the street a few weeks ago and is 39 years old, the right tackle didn't practice until just before the final preseason game and no one knows what they have at receiver after Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney.
They can't be sure at the moment how the defense will perform when coordinator Sean Desai has never headed up the game plan and then directed its implementation for a 60-minute game. This doesn't even take into account how the talent itself holds up considering the potential for problems in some areas.
Yet, there is the possibility this restructuring of the roster finally brought Nagy the speed he needed to implement his style of offense, that the offensive line will bind together behind ancient left tackle Jason Peters and it all could come about because Andy Dalton is a better quarterback than they've had since Jay Cutler's prime, if there was such a thing.
It's difficult to say because no one actually saw it from the offense in preseason. The Bears both held back on showing anything and couldn't have done it if they wanted because of the injuries on their offensive line to both tackles.
Nagy says he saw enough.
"Now, offensively, those series that we had when Andy was in there, again, the variables that we had going weren't necessarily fair, but to get the tempo going, I feel good," Nagy said.
Does what they did in practice count more than the scant offering put forth for consideration in games?
-Bears WR Allen Robinson
"I think we're still ascending," wide receiver Allen Robinson. "Honestly, I like where we're at."
Defensively it's easier to put faith in a group headed by someone preaching the teachings of Vic Fangio again, disguising coverages and trying to utilize the raw pass rush power of Khalil Mack.
If they get both Eddie Goldman and Akiem Hicks healthy again and playing like when they've controlled the interior, find a way to actually get something out of Robert Quinn, and Roquan Smith activates like the unstoppable play maker they've seen increasing glimpses of, there really could be something special on one side of the ball.
Even the inexperience of cornerbacks Duke Shelley and Kindle Vildor might be compensated for if opposing quarterbacks are running for their lives.
Then again, there are so many reasons why this entire assembly could come apart at the seams that it's difficult to foresee some sort of wild success like in 2018.
Perhaps the biggest reason is a player not even scheduled to take part in games.
Justin Fields' presence looms large over everything, and it would be very easy for the Bears to scrap the entire production at the first sign of offensive problems so they can hand it over to the franchise's future.
Great rookie quarterbacks eventually succeed, but even the best struggle early. If it comes down to to Fields starting, it will be about the future and not winning this season. Then the question is whether it is a future which includes Nagy and Pace.
In some minor ways it is reminiscent of 2018. Nagy came in, no one knew what to expect with a team totally revamped, a coach with a reputation of working miracles with his quarterbacks and a dominant defense behind Mack.
Except now we've seen how Nagy works in three years with two playoff berths but no playoff wins.
Nagy is coaching hard and doing what he knows, but with talent closer to the middle of the league or lower.
An 8-9 season was forecasted here in early spring and nothing that transpired since then has moved the needle off its spot. The Bears look like a competitive team with a losing record for 2021 and here's why:
1. The Bears' Schedule
It's still the NFL's third-toughest based on last year's records. The pandemic limited how much teams could overturn rosters with free agency across the league. Not enough has changed personnel-wise to significantly weaken or strengthen teams on the schedule over the previous season. The Bears are not built to compile a winning record against a schedule so formidable. When they won the division in 2018 it was against a schedule so weak they built up momentum and couldn't be stopped until Cody Parkey intervened.
2. The Losing Streak
One almost seems inevitable. One year is a freak occurrence, two years is a trend. Two straight years Nagy-coached teams failed to handle a few consecutive losses well. They snowballed into the type of losing streak capable of crushing a team's dreams. In 2019 they lost four straight during the most difficult stretch of their schedule. In 2020, they went 5-1 out of the gates, then hit the tough part of the schedule and failed miserably with six straight losses. This schedule has Green Bay, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Pittsburgh and Baltimore in succession starting in mid-October. Good luck with that.
3. Secondary Inexperience
It's not so much the inexperience of talent among those defending the pass as it is inexperience within the scheme and with each other. Jaylon Johnson is the best cornerback and has played 12 full NFL games. Eddie Jackson is the only one of the starting five who was in a Fangio-style defense. Vildor and Shelley have not yet even proven they are average at covering receivers in any scheme. This mix has blown coverages stamped all over it.
4. Offensive Line
Even if Teven Jenkins never developed a back issue, they were taking a big chance at left tackle with a rookie who hadn't played the left side much. Now they're taking a chance for the exact opposite reason—Peters likely has played there too much. His Pro Football Focus grades understandably have declined the last few years as he hit the late 30s. He's not the same player.
James Daniels has never been an NFL right guard, only a center and left guard. Ifedi was at his best playing right guard last year but was respectable for a stretch of games at right tackle. However, those included four games against defenses mired at the league's bottom. It's a big assumption to think he can go against the stretch of opponents the Bears face this mid-season without breaking down.
5. The Quarterback
A popular narrative is Andy Dalton is a step above Mitchell Trubisky. This is not entirely clear. Maybe Dalton five years ago was. Dalton at 33 is five years removed from quarterbacking a team with a winning record. His power stats like yards per attempt and passer rating have declined overall. Trubisky wasn't a good downfield passer but at 33 is Dalton?
When the inevitable occurs and they finally put Fields in control of the offense, losses are likely to ensue for at least a while, if not the rest of this season. Only five out of 32 quarterbacks drafted in the first round over the last decade had winning records as rookie starters. And only Andrew Luck, Tua Tagovailoa and R.G. III compiled winning records after starting more than half of their teams' games as rookies in this decade.
At least when Fields does take over, interest will hit a new peak even if it takes a while for the wins to occur.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
