Keenan Allen Might Not End Receiver Hunt
The Caleb Williams and Justin Fields question is history and if anyone thought the Bears were trading away the first pick then perhaps they should have watched the interraction between the USC quarterback and Chicago decision makers at Wednesday's pro day workout.
They look like one big happy family at this point.
Then there are the mock drafts.
For the first time, the NFL Mock Draft Database this week was showing 100% unanimous mock drafts forr Williams headed to Chicago.
The question left for the Bears in this draft, then, is what to do at No. 9 now. There are two lines of thinking on the subject.
One is they need another receiver from the big three to add and make their own big three. They would have DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and one of the top draft receivers for Caleb Williams to target.
The other choice is a more obvious one and this is improving their pass rush with a complementary playerr to Montez Sweat.
If there was a Jalen Carter type of defensive tackle who is a sure immediate success as 3-technique then this likely would be the aim because of the importance the Bears defensive scheme attaches to the interior rush from that position. There are some decent tackles but no one of top-10 status.
Acquiring someone to remove all the double-team pass rush pressure from Montez Sweat is a goal.
However, there are good reasons the Bears could be cornered into taking Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers with the ninth pick. It almost sounds comical to say this because prior to their trade for Keenan Allen, the real question for them seemed to be whether they could have a chance to draft one of the top three receivers to give them a second downfield target besides DJ Moore.
Now it's alomst a hinderance if they have to draft a receiver because of their gaping hole at edge rusher opposite Sweat.
Here are the reasons they might actually wind up using the ninth pick at receiver.
1. The Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta has done nothing but address offense. The Falcons have all the passing game tools now, although it never hurts to bolster pass blocking when you have a 36-year-old quarterback. They need pass rush help and are situated one spot ahead of the Bears at No. 8, a perfect place to select Alabama's Dallas Turner.
2. The Edge Rush Gap
Turner is the best pass rusher and Jared Verse of Florida State is not close enough to his overall talent level while the next two, Laiatu Latua and Chop Robinson, are picks more often mocked later in Round 1. They'd be potential picks for a team that would trade well back in Round 1. The difference between Turner and Verse is speed and athleticism. That's all. Turner has measurables like a defensive back or receiver, including speed. At 4.46 seconds in the 40, he ran faster at the combine than all but 2% of edge players in combine history according to Mockdraftable.com. His 40 1/2-inch vertical leap is top 3% and is better than a high percentage of wide receivers. This, combined with a wingspan in the top 12% and arm length (34 3/8 inches) in the top 20% more than make up for the fact he is just 6-foot-2 3/4. In Montez Sweat, the Bears have a fast and powerful big man. They need the speed punch off the blind side and Turner is it. They might not get the chance at taking him because of the Falcons.
3. Limited Trade Back
Taking Jared Verse, instead, would be no weak consolation prize if the Bears can't get Turner but he's still not necessarily worthy of a No. 9 pick. The NFL Mock Draft Data Base consensus big board puts him at No. 13. So they'd be reaching a bit to take him ninth according to that judgment. Trading back would be a good thing here and then taking him. The Bears can definitely use the picks because they are coming into this draft with only four total selections and none in Round 2 or on Day 3.
It would seem fine to trade back a few spots and get one extra pick somewhere, even on Day 3. Or maybe a team from way back wants to move way up and throws some picks at them and they can take a real speed rusher in Chop Robinson late in Round 1. Robinson ran almost as fast in the 40 (4.48) as Turner. But there is a problem with trading anywhere.
Teams moving up from way back and teams moving up from close by are usually doing this in Round 1 to get the chance at a quarterback. Essentially, J.J. McCarthy has cost the Bears a chance to trade back with a team wanting a quarterback. The surprising rise by McCarthy to join the other three QBs as possible top-10 selections makes it unlikely the ninth spot will be one any team seeking one of the top quarterbacks would want. The top four quarterbacks now look like they could go well before pick No. 9. Then the next two QBs, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr., probably don't rate close enough to the first four to make the ninth a spot one for a team looking to draft a quarterback. They'rer not wasting a draft pick to move up and take one of those two when it's likely they can get the QB without a trade.
As a result, with no trade back and with Turner likely to be gone and Verse not quite on his level, the Bears' best option is the second or third best wide receiver.
4. Receiver Situation
Keenan Allen is going to be 32 when the season starts. He's not going to get a long-term contract. He has a contract only through this year. It's possible he's one-and-done as a Bears receiver or gets a very short-term extension. Getting a receiver at No. 9 then makes all the sense because Allen could be helping with this player's development, essentially training his own replacement. Then the Bears would also have that next No. 2 receiver already on board.
5. Caleb Williams
Bringing in a top rookie wide receiver when the rookie QB comes in makes all the sense because the two can build a connection together early in their careers. The Bears would have five years essentially with both the QB and a future top receiver at a lower cost before their contracts would greatly expand.
The Bears are moving toward being an actual 21st century team on offense and getting as strong a group of receivers to team with Williams is necessary to continue their progress.
6. Quicker Return
Usually in today's game, it's easier to get a positive erturn on a top receiver than it is on an edge rusher. Using last year as an example, there were seven receivers taken in the first three rounds who had either 60 reception and/or 700 yards in their first season but there were only four edge rushers in the first three rounds who had seven sacks and none in the entire draft who hit double-digit sacks their first year. It's not always as poor for production for edge rushers but generally you can get more production out of a wide receiver than an edge rusher right away because they're really only learning the passing game. Their blocking in the running game or carries as a receiver on end-arounds don't amount to enough of their actual role to make it a big issue. Edge rushers also need to defend the run, and this double need is especially true in a 4-3 base defense like the Bears use. It's not easy finding an edge who can do both right away in any round of the draft.
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