Erik Kramer's Mark Is a Possible Target

Curtis Conway and Jeff Graham teamed to give the Bears their best receiving duo since they had Dennis McKinnon and Willie Gault a decade earlier.

The late Rashaan Salaam was on his way to a Bears rookie rushing record.

A year earlier quarterback Steve Walsh had led the team to a stunning road wild-card playoff win over the Minnesota Vikings. This was 1995 but Walsh was no longer the quarterback. Erik Kramer was at QB and he set a Bears passing record of 3,828 yards.

It stands to this day, a reminder of the Bears' dubious distinction as the lone NFL team without a 4,000-yard passer.

It's unlikely Justin Fields can attain a passing yardage mark this high after just 2,242 last season in 15 games, but one other team passing mark Kramer set that season is not beyond Fields' reach.

Fields' critics, like Colin Cowherd or Michael Lombardi, would no doubt disagree but the Bears quarterback could find the team single-season touchdown passes record of 29 Kramer set that year is attainable.

In fact, the over/under touchdown passes mark on Fields might be the easiest futures bet to win this year. It's 18 1/2 at some sportsbooks, 17 1/2 at others. He already had 17 for 15 games without help, in the first year learning the offense and it's a totally different situation now.

There are several reasons this can be possible with merely a moderate jump in Fields' productivity.

1. They'll Pass More

It's simple math.

Fields only threw it 318 times last year. He missed two games. The NFL average passes for teams was 564.7 last season. If Fields merely hits the NFL average attempts without improving his touchdown percentage (5.34) or improving, he'd wind up with 29.9 TD passes. That's over the total.

Fields is unlikely to reach that total of average attempts because the Bears still do want to be a run-based offense, and his running will be a part of this. However, they do anticipate his rushing attempts will come down.

With it, he's expected to pass much more than last year and be more efficient as his understanding of the offense and NFL defenses expands. Defenses will attempt to adjust to his rushing and it leaves them susceptible to being burned by bigger pass plays. With this, his yards per pass can rise and it leads to more touchdown passes.

Basic improvement from one year to the next can compensate for the difference between Fields' attempts and the NFL average of attempts.

2. Trend Continues

Fields finished the season with 15 TD passes in his last 11 games. At that rate, over a full season he projects with 23 TD passes.

This was a trend established with a struggling offense and defense backing him in the first year of an offense and with his top receiver injured for almost half of the games in the 11-game stretch.

There's every reason to believe the trend comes at a higher level this year because his numbers had risen dramatically during that stretch across the board. A 70 passer rating prior to then became 92.2. There's a lot a passer can do with a 92.2 passer rating. Josh Allen in 2021 threw 36 TD passes with a 92.2 passer rating. Dan Marino set the Miami record with 44 TD passes in 1984 when he had a 92.5 passer rating. Blake Bortles holds the Jacksonville TD record for a single season with 35 and he had an 88.2 passer rating.

3. The Wide Receivers

There was nothing like DJ Moore in the receiver group for Fields last year. Chase Claypool also figures to be better in his second year, although the degree to which is questionable. With Darnell Mooney returning after missing the last 5 1/2 games, it's like night and day for the Bears QB with his wideout targets.

Moore has been aching to have a passer with the kind of arm Fields has throwing to him. He managed seven TD passes last year with the Baker Mayfield/Sam Darnold/PJ Walker/Jacob Eason tag team in Carolina throwing to him. With targets in the receiver corps like Mooney and Claypool to take pressure off Moore on occasion, his production should also rise.

Consider Fields had a 5.3% TD pass ratio with Dante Pettis, Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown, N'Keal Harry and rookie Velus Jones Jr.trying to help him, with Claypool coming in at midseason and struggling to fit into the offense, and with Mooney leaving in Week 12 after four TD catches.

Here's what Fields dealt with:

St. Brown has 2 TD catches in 26 NFL starts and 53 games and he had one TD catch last year.

Pettis' 19 catches last year were the most he had since he made 27 as a rookie in 2018.

Pringle was supposed to be No. 2 behind Mooney and made 10 catches.

Harry was hailed as a potential deep threat and steal for a seventh-rounder in a trade with New England. He made seven catches and one TD.

Jones' one TD catch was a 9-yard jet sweep, a forward handoff basically.

4. The Red Zone

Fields already was No. 1 in the NFL in red zone completion percentage. However, he couldn't get it into the end zone enough with that receiver corps and with so few trips into the red zone. They were 27th in red zone trips. He wound up tied for 15th in TD passes within the red zone.

Still, he had 12 of his 17 TD passes from within in the red zone. Tight end Cole Kmet made six in the red zone, tying for fifth in the league.

Now, however, besides Kmet, Fields has tight end Robert Tonyan as a potential red zone target. Tonyan made seven TD catches in the red zone in 2020 before his 2021 ACL tear. That was tied for seventh in the league.

Claypool, as a 6-foot-4, 238-pound wideout with a 40.5-inch vertical leap, had six red zone TD catches his first two years before last year's midseason disruption with a trade.

Fields now has plenty of red zone targets just like he has better targets in general. The red zone is where it's at, which is the reason the Bears devoted so much time to it during OTAs and minicamp.

5. It's Not that Lofty

The 29 TD catches for the Bears record by Kramer is the lowest TD record for all of the 32 NFL teams.

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