Bear Digest

Bears on Correct Path to a Super Bowl but Winning One Requires More

Analysis: There have been better examples than the Patriots and Seahawks for the Bears to follow to make a Super Bowl, but both teams display what's needed to win one.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams looks for a target on the bootleg pass against the Rams in the divisional playoffs.
Caleb Williams looks for a target on the bootleg pass against the Rams in the divisional playoffs. | David Banks-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The message for the Bears about how the Patriots and Seahawks made it to Super Bowl LX is obvious, and it's defense.

This isn't hard to determine when your own defense ranks 29th in the league like the Bears did. The heavy lifting has already been accomplished.

Ben Johnson's main task for this season was reviving the worst offense in the NFL. He had to do it with a quarterback who had one year of experience, and that coming within an attack and with a coaching staff entirely ill equipped for the assignment of developing a young passer, or doing much else beyond snapping a football.

Almost miraculously, Johnson and GM Ryan Poles in one offseason produced the talent and environment necessary for 68 sacks of Caleb Williams to turn into only 24, and for a seventh-round running back to help get the Bears to third in rushing.

"I think we did a number of really good things on offense, and yet we haven't even scratched the surface of what we're fully capable of yet," Johnson said.

Now with the sixth-ranked offense, it's entirely obvious substantial defensive improvement is the necessary step but, it doesn't seem possible for the Bears to jump from 29th to sixth, like Seattle's defense was ranked, or eighth, like New England's.

The Bears lack the salary cap cash for significant free agent additions as they try to become a Super Bowl team. It is going to take nailing every single one of the changes they do make so that defensive improvement can occur.

In other words, the Bears look like they took the wrong route to respectability once again.

They zigged left when the road to NFL riches zagged right. They should have hired a defensive side coach and built their defense up first. Not so fast, as Lee Corso used to say.

The aberration

Did you ever open a potato chip bag and reach in and take out one that is shaped like the United States or one that is the size of six chips? That's what this season is, with two teams riding great defenses into the Super Bowl. It's a throwback to another age, but definitely not a trend.

The way to get to a Super Bowl still is with offense in a league doing everything possible to enhance scoring and passing.

It's just that when you put two evenly ranked offenses together, the team with the defense more capable of providing a stop or two is going to get the win. So they need to improve at pass-rushing and stopping the run, in particular.

This season simply produced Super Bowl teams unlike most Super Bowl qualifiers.

Offense rules

Over the last decade before this Super Bowl, nine of the 20 teams to play for the Lombardi Trophy did not have top-10 defenses the way the Seahawks and Patriots do. In fact, six of those 20 teams had defenses that did not even finish in the top half of the NFL rankings.

Meanwhile, the situation is exactly the opposite on offense. Not one single Super Bowl team in the past decade had an offense in the bottom half of the league, and 16 of the 20 teams were ranked in the top 10 on offense.

The average Super Bowl team in the last decade ranked 11th on defense but sixth on offense.

In fact, the Bears' sixth-ranked offense already is Super Bowl-ready by these standards. It’s better than nine of the 20 offenses to get to a Super Bowl in the past decade. It does leave the Bears a little more room yet to improve on offense if they really want to be taken seriously as a contender.

First, though, their defense must be better.

Offensive ranks

Last 10 Super Bowls

Year

Winner

Rank

Loser

Rank

2024

Eagles

8th

Chiefs

16th

2023

Chiefs

9th

49ers

2nd

2022

Chiefs

1st

Eagles

3rd

2021

Rams

9th

Bengals

13th

2020

Buccaneers

7th

Chiefs

1st

2019

Chiefs

6th

49ers

4th

2018

Patriots

4th

Rams

2nd

2017

Eagles

7th

Patriots

1st

2016

Patriots

4th

Falcons

2nd

2015

Broncos

16th

Panthers

11th

Winning it all

The difference between winning and losing the Super Bowl once a team gets there is actually different than what’s needed merely to make it there.

The old saying, "defense wins championships" was credited to Alabama's Bear Bryant. It's still accurate in modern professional football. Offense will get you to the Super Bowl. The defense doesn't have to be dominant, but if it's better than your Super Bowl opponent's defense then you're likely to hoist the trophy.

There were only three No. 1 defenses among the 20 Super Bowl teams and two No. 2 defenses. Those five teams had a record of 4-1 in the Super Bowl. The one loser was the Eagles team that lost to the Chiefs after the 2022 season.

Three of the last four Super Bowls were won by teams with offenses ranked higher than their opponents' offense. The lone difference was when Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City's ninth-ranked offense beat San Francisco and its second-ranked offense after the 2023 season.

If this sounds like a trend, cast a suspicious eye. Go back over the full decade prior to those four Super Bowls and six in a row were won by the team with the weaker ranking of the two on offense.

Perhaps the most recent trend says having the better offense in the Super Bowl wins now, or maybe it doesn't. Four games is a small sample size when compared to six straight with offenses ranked lower coming out as the winner.

If you want a solid trend for defense in the Super Bowl and  you’re a bettor, the team with the better-ranked defense of the two teams will win.

In eight of the last 10 Super Bowls, the team with a defense ranked better between the two came away with the victory. The only difference was when the Eagles (second on defense) lost to the Chiefs (11th) in the Super Bowl after 2023, and when the Rams and their 19th-ranked defense lost to the Patriots and their 21st-ranked defense in the Super Bowl after the 2018 season.

Defensive ranks

Last 10 Super Bowls

Year

Winner

Rank

Loser

Rank

2024

Eagles

1st

Chiefs

9th

2023

Chiefs

2nd

49ers

8th

2022

Chiefs

11th

Eagles

2nd

2021

Rams

17th

Bengals

18th

2020

Buccaneers

6th

Chiefs

16th

2019

Chiefs

6th

49ers

17th

2018

Patriots

21st

Rams

19th

2017

Eagles

7th

Patriots

29th

2016

Patriots

8th

Falcons

25th

2015

Broncos

1st

Panthers

6th

The message is clear for the Bears.

They already have a good enough offense to make a Super Bowl, although a little more consistency wouldn't hurt.

However, if they want to get there and then win it all, they have work to do to make sure their defense is better their AFC opponent's defense on the big day.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.