Bears Predicted to Miss Playoffs, But There's a Silver Lining for the Fans

The Chicago Bears have not won a playoff game in consecutive seasons since their legendary 1985 season, when they won Super Bowl XX on the back of that dominant '46' defense. Even worse, they haven't even qualified for the playoffs in consecutive years since the 2006 NFL season, the year they advanced to Super Bowl XLI. This current Bears team hopes to put an end to both shameful streaks, but the latest prediction for the 2026 season has other plans.

Connor Orr predicted all 272 games of the 2026 NFL season, his annual tradition for Sports Illustrated, and he had the Bears finishing with a 10-7 record. "According to the FTN Almanac, the Bears have one of the worst projected defensive DVOAs in the NFL," Orr writes. "This is a split that, if it turns out to be accurate, would have the Bears looking a bit like a less hilarious version of the 2025 Cowboys."

By the standards of recent franchise history, this would be a tremendous success. However, 10 wins isn't enough to get into the playoffs in Orr's predictions, and it would be hard to call this result anything more than a disappointment after Chicago's triumphant Wild Card victory over the Green Bay Packers a year ago.

But before any Bears fans fall into despair or rage against Orr's predictions, he did provide a silver lining to his prediction, saying, "An MVP-caliber campaign from Caleb Williams, plus a crusade against Ryan Poles to improve the defense next offseason, feels like a very comfortable and safe landing spot."

How Caleb Williams can reach an MVP-caliber season

Ben Johnson and Caleb William — Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson talks to quarterback Caleb Williams. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

To be clear, Orr is not saying that Williams would win the MVP award, but that his season would be worthy of it. What would that look like? Here are the numbers from each quarterback who received at least one first-place MVP vote last year.

Name	Completed Passes	Attempted Passes	Passing Yards	Passing Touchdowns	InterceptionThrown
MattStafford	388	597	4707	46	8
Drake Maye	354	492	4394	31	8
Josh Allen	319	460	3668	25	10
Justin Herbert	340	512	3727	26	13

If we take the averages from these four quarterbacks, we'd be looking at 4,124 passing yards, a 64.9 completion percentage (350 completed passes out of 515 attempts), 32 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. While the increase in interceptions would be a mild concern, these numbers would represent by far the best quarterback season in Chicago Bears history, including the first time a Bears quarterback threw for over 4,000 yards in a season and 30 or more touchdowns.

The doubters and rival NFC North fans will say that will never happen, but the fact is that Caleb Williams' breakout season in 2025 already got him close to these numbers. Remember, he finished the year with 3,942 yards, 27 touchdowns, and just seven interceptions. The biggest potential roadblock to improving these stats is, ironically, Williams' own team.

Head coach Ben Johnson is known as an offensive savant around the NFL, which brings to mind images of a high-flying, pass-first offense. But in reality, Johnson prioritizes the ground game. He's a run-first coach, and it's how he sets his offense up for success. That will likely put a cap on Williams' passing volume in 2026.

Caleb Williams' development is still more important than winning (for now)

Bears fans would, of course, love to see the team take another step in 2026 and reach the NFC Championship game, or perhaps even the Super Bowl. However, as Williams enters his third NFL season, his development remains the top priority for this franchise. If all goes well, Chicago's window to contend for a Super Bowl will be wide open for the next 10-12 years. That's the kind of big picture thinking that general manager Ryan Poles is looking at.

It may end in frustration in the short-term, but the fact of the matter is that even if the Bears miss the playoffs this year, it wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, so long as Williams posts the kind of numbers we calculated earlier. If this is the year that Williams proves beyond any doubt that he is a superstar quarterback, then this will be the last time for a long time that anyone picks the Bears to miss the playoffs.

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