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Caleb Williams' Clutch Play Not Enough to Suit Everyone's Tastes

Although the Bears QB authored some of the great comebacks in franchise history, one analytics site can't find room for him among the top five passers in the clutch.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams looks downfield as he runs out of the pocket against the Vikings in last year's season opener.
Caleb Williams looks downfield as he runs out of the pocket against the Vikings in last year's season opener. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams' late-game heroics led to teammates giving him the Iceman moniker.

Apparently not everyone is as impressed with how he seemed to pull the Bears from the fire each week in 2025 with a last-second touchdown pass or TD scramble.

Although Williams produced some of the most thrilling finishes to victories in Bears history last season, Mark Chichester of Pro Football Focus has left him off of the website's list of last season's top five clutch quarterbacks in the league based on various PFF metrics.

Chichester ranked Dak Prescott first, Matthew Stafford second, Lamar Jackson third, Sam Darnold fourth and Josh Allen fifth based on PFF passing grades in various "clutch" situations. He defined some of those as play in the fourth quarter and overtime when trailing by 14 or less, or leading by eight or less, garbage time aside.

He had Prescott No. for his 87.8 PFF passing grade while "producing nine big-time throws against just four turnover-worthy plays in high-leverage situations."

Williams definitely had his moments but some throws that were at risk or were picked. Note that this doesn't include the playoffs.

PFF's flawed approach

What PFF should have done was focus better and use better analytics than its own mysterious grades based on their own judgment about throws. A better analysis of who the best clutch quarterbacks were would be focused on who got the wins in the end. After all, this is what it's all about at the end of games. It's not about putting up passing stats for fantasy owners.

Quarterbacks might pass but how well they actually win games in critical moments is a more true measure of who is best in the clutch.

In Williams' case, it still might not make him the best of the clutch passers based on last year, but he'd be awfully close.

Truer measures

The Bears didn't win every one-score game last year. They were 7-4, so Williams wasn't perfect in these situations. He was merely among the best. Pulling out wins in hopeless situations is what helped him earn the Iceman nickname though.

Sumer Sports analytics breaks down quarterback success and even the NFL's situational stats do a better job of measuring true clutch play.

Williams was third in the NFL in passing EPA when trailing in games (65.82), and only Stafford and Nix were better. EPA is the analytic Ben Johnson told everyone is the real standard back before his first season.

Williams was fourth in passing EPA when blitzed, although he was only 21st among starters at passing EPA when facing pressure.

The other important EPA for Williams was how he passed on late downs (third and fourth), and he was only 15th among starters.

Analytics are not everything. Good old passer rating late in games is pretty good, as well. Williams had a 109.1 passer rating from his 31st throw of games or more. That's slinging it effectively. He also had a 98.4 passer rating in fourth quarters when trailing and 135.4 in overtime.

It's obvious by these numbers the clutch tag applies to Williams, although he might not be as clutch as some of these passers the PFF article lists. Then again, using different numbers than theirs, he is every bit as good.

Seven fourth-quarterback comebacks and five game-winning drives says plenty about clutch ability.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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