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Odds Now Favor Indiana for Bears Stadium as Illinois Keeps Losing Ground

Odds now favor Indiana in the Bears stadium fight, another sign Illinois is losing ground as Arlington Heights stalls and Hammond gains momentum for the franchise.
Gene Chamberlain|
Soldier Field, home of the Bears for this season and for who knows how long.
Soldier Field, home of the Bears for this season and for who knows how long. | Gene Chamberlain Photo / Chicago Bears On SI

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Chicago Bears

You can bet on anything these days and the prediction market place Kalshi even offers up a chance to make money on the misery of Illinois Bears fans.

There is a Kalshi line on the Bears relocating to Indiana or staying in Illinois, and even after the Illinois legislature fumbled the ball by failing to pass legislation to help build a stadium in Arlington Heights there remains skepticism among the "investor class" about the team moving to the Hoosier state.

However, the latest bit of Illinois political buffoonery did make Indiana the favorite for a new Bears stadium. What's surprising is how close it is with actual bettors, after Indiana Gov. Mike Braun himself had called it a 65% chance for Indiana even before the failed Illinois attempt to pass legislation on Monday morning. He's a governor and has to say this.

The Kalshi line is 51% for Indiana and 49% for Illinois. That means a 50-cent payoff on Indiana, 52-cent payoff for Illinois and even a 7% chance or 94-cent payoff on an investment in they do not move anywhere.

For the longshot lovers, they list Iowa at 1%. This needs to be set at zero because they're not considering it. They'd go to Wisconsin before Iowa. It's too far away.

All of this Kalshi information is contingent on a move by the first week of the 2028 season. After that, as they say, all bets are off.

These odds need a shake

At this point, the view from here is how it now looks like what Braun said prior to the Illinois votes. Let's make it a 65% chance for Indiana and 35% for Illinois. The really important thing here is the Kalshi line doesn't specify which Illinois site.

The Senate never passed the payment in lieu of taxes legislation initially passed by the House. The Senate passed a new bill for establishing local Cook County stadium authorities which would have allowed Chicago back into the fray. The House never passed that bill and that's where it all ended.

Chicago would look to keep the Bears now, and because there was allegedly discussion with Mayor Brandon Johnson by someone with the Bears in days just before the votes, it's reasonable to assume there will be behind-the-scenes discussion going on now.

The Bears' last word on it all was they are sticking to their late spring and early summer announcement, so any discussion better occur rapidly whether with Johnson or the Arlington Heights people.

Considering where it all left off, my take on is 65% Indiana, 25% Arlington Heights, 10% Chicago, 0% Iowa. Iowa is either heaven or a cornfield but not a  pro football stadium.

All of this is contingent upon a safe soil toxicity measurement in Hammond.

If the soil in Indiana requires fans to wear hazmat suits, all bets are off. 

Then you might be telling those people who took the 7% chance that the Bears will remain put at Soldier Field without an announcement by 2028 that they're all big winners.

  • Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
  • If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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