Bear Digest

Crunching Caleb Williams' Numbers for Progress or Regression

The Bears QB improved dramatically in most ways as a passer in 2025, although there were some minor steps back in Year 1 operating Ben Johnson's offense.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams rolls out looking for a target against the Rams in the playoffs. Out of the pocket and inside it, Williams was better in 2025.
Caleb Williams rolls out looking for a target against the Rams in the playoffs. Out of the pocket and inside it, Williams was better in 2025. | David Banks-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

When Ben Johnson stood back and looked at what the Bears had done with Caleb Williams this year, he couldn't help note how far they had come.

"The things that we highlighted for Caleb to start the season, I did think they improved as the season went along," Johnson said. "We revamped the footwork a little bit last spring, and I think the comfort level grew from that.

"He certainly got more comfortable with the concepts that we were running over the course of the season. That's something that we can build upon, and yet there's still a lot more that we can push through in that regard. And so, I'm really encouraged about the steps he took this year. I'm Caleb Williams' No. 1 believer. I have a lot of faith in him, what he's capable of doing, and the player that he's still striving to become.”

The wild passing at times remains, but not to the extent of his rookie year.

"When you watched his college tape, you knew that some of those wild throws were part of his game," GM Ryan Poles said. "I would say the one thing that stands out that I was happy to see come back was his pocket presence, his ability to escape. I think that is a rare trait that he has. You saw that come alive.

"But, with that said, and Ben (Johnson) hit it, there is still a lot of work to be done, but I think that he gets you excited for what he can become, as long as he continues on the path that he was on before."

Here's where Williams regressed or improved. In a year when he led the Bears from 5-12 to 12-7, the most important numbers of all.

Regression

His completion percentage famously nosedived from 62.5 (351 of 562) to 58.1% (330 of 568) as he owned the worst completion percentage of any starting quarterback who took his team into the playoffs since Andrew Luck in 2012 (54.1%). Perhaps he is fated to be that type of QB who doesn't get is completion percentage up far. Luck, himself, was lauded as a great passer but never had a completion percentage as high as what Williams had as a rookie until his fifth season  (63.5%).

Regardless, it definitely wasn't the 70% Johnson had as a target.

His passing under pressure actually went backward slightly, according to Pro Football Focus. He completed 44.1% under pressure in 2024 and 40% in 2025, and the total number of attempts under pressure rose greatly even though the number of sacks he took decreased dramatically because of better pass blocking and the threat of a running game.

He threw 145 times  under pressure in 2024, 205 times in 2025.

Williams’ time to throw got slower as he ran a new offense, one that also requires more time holding the ball with boot passes and play-action throws. He took 3.2 seconds on average per NFL Next Gen Stats. Only Shedeur Sanders was slower (3.24). A year ago, he took 2.9 seconds in an offense not so geared to play-action, and there were seven slower getting it away.

Also, his running impact dropped as he ran for 101 fewer yards (388) and averaged half a yard less per carry (4.3).

Whether his running decline is a negative or positive is open to debate because Johnson stressed staying in the pocket as long as possible.

Progress

In virtually every other statistical and analytical area, Williams stepped forward under Johnson.

Passing EPA: This was the area Johnson called critical in the offseason and Williams had been atrocious in 2024, ranking 73rd. The only people he was better than in 2024 were Deshaun Watson, Will Levis, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Spencer Rattler. In 2025, he finished 12th in the NFL among starters at 43.96 per Sumer Sports analytics.

Non-analytics: His passer rating improved from 87.8 to 90.1, although still below the league average of 92.3. It's difficult to improve passer rating at all when your completion percentage declines as much as his did. That's important in calculation passer rating. He threw seven more touchdown passes (27), threw for 16 more first downs (187), improved is yards per attempt by 0.6 (6.9), had 451 more passing yards (3,942) and had a 2.6% better success rate passing. Success rate is 40% of what's needed to the sticks on first down, 60% on second down and 100% on third and fourth down.

Strategically: Williams ran play-action much more than in 2024 in this offense. In 2024, he had ben 20th in pass attempts from play-action and graded 47th doing it. He improved 30 spots this year while making the second-most play-action throws in the league per Pro Football Focus.

Situationally: Williams became more of a situational master. His passer rating rose in tie games from 67.0 last year to 85.9 in 2025. When trailing from one to eight points in 2024 he had a 72.8 passer rating but this past season was at 101.2 for situations. On third downs, Williams in 2024 had a 76.0 passer rating, 27th among NFL starters. This past season, he was at 97.2, eighth in the NFL among starters. Williams also picked it up on the road. and at home. He went from a 94.6 passer rating to 97.6 at home and 80.8 to 84.1 on the road.

Other analytics: Although his accuracy needs to improve, Williams rated 12th among starters in deep pass (20-plus) completion percentage one year after he was 32nd. PFF has a highly subjective big-throw rate. He was 10th among starters in big-time throw completion rate at 30% one year after he'd been 32nd at 19.5%. NextGen Stats has Williams as no check-down Charlie. Only eight starting QBs had longer intended air yards on their passes.

Next step

The numbers could look quite a bit different for Williams next season if Johnson is able to get his completion percentage up. Just being in the attack a second year and one more year removed from the misery of his rookie season coaching should help with this.

Two of his top targets were rookies Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III and they should take steps forward, as should Rome Odunze who was hit with a broken foot later in the season after a fast start.

If they can improve defensively, one area he won't be able to improve is one where he won't need to be better. That's fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. He had six game-winning drives and fourth-quarter comebacks for the regular season only one year after he scratched the surface with one game-winning drives and two fourth-quarter comeback as a rookie.

They wouldn't need the "ice man" as much if they're up in games.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.