Analyzing the Hit Rate of Defensive Ends in the Chicago Bears’ Draft Window

I wanted to analyze the historical perspective of every position that I could see the Bears targeting in the first round. I covered every defensive tackle selected between picks 20 and 32 (I think that represents the most comparable range of who might be available at pick 25) since the 2010 draft earlier this week.

For this article, I decided to research defensive ends drafted in the same range and span to compare the two positions and see how teams picking near the end of the first round have fared.

For context, I grade each pick on whether the player turned out to be a miss, an average player, a hit, or a mega hit. For the sake of comparison, there were 18 defensive tackles drafted in the aforementioned period, and they produced a mixed bag of results. There were eight misses, four hits, four average players, and two mega hits.

How does the defensive end position compare to the big guys?

Player	Team	Year & Pick	Grade
Adrian Clayborn	Buccaneers	2011, 20	Average
Cameron Jordan	Saints	2011, 24	Mega Hit
Cameron Heyward	Steelers	2011, 31	Mega Hit
Chandler Jones	Patriots	2012, 21	Mega Hit
Whitney Mercilus	Texans	2012, 26	Hit
Nick Perry	Packers	2012, 28	Miss
Bjoern Werner	Colts	2013, 24	Miss
Datone Jones	Packers	2013, 26	Miss
Dee Ford	Chiefs	2014, 23	Average
Marcus Smith	Eagles	2014, 26	Miss
Shane Ray	Broncos	2015, 23	Miss
Takkarist McKinley	Falcons	2017, 26	Miss
Taco Charlton	Cowboys	2017, 28	Miss
Montez Sweat	Commanders	2019, 26	Hit
L.J. Collier	Seahawks	2019, 29	Miss
K'Lavon Chaisson	Jaguars	2020, 20	Average
Kwity Paye	Colts	2021, 21	Average
Payton Turner	Saints	2021, 28	Miss
Gregory Rousseau	Bills	2021, 30	Mega Hit
Jermaine Johnson	Jets	2022, 26	Average
George Karlaftis	Chiefs	2022, 30	Hit
Myles Murphy	Bengals	2023, 28	Miss
Felix Anudike-Uzomah	Chiefs	2023, 31	Miss
Chop Robinson	Dolphins	2024, 21	Average (so far)
James Pearce Jr.	Falcons	2025, 26	Mega Hit (maybe)

This group (unsurprisingly) featured another mixed bag. Of the 25 players included in the study, there were five mega hits (or four, depending on how you feel about James Pearce Jr.), three hits, six average players, and 11 misses.

The hit rate really isn't surprising, as edge rushers who are sure things tend to go much earlier in the draft. It has always been considered the second most important position after quarterback, and the top edge rushers in virtually every class tend to get pushed to the top of the board.

The most striking insight from the list was just how awful the late first-round edge rusher hit rate was from 2013 to 2019. Montez Sweat was the only obvious hit during that span, and the vast majority of the group produced a wasteland of egregious draft busts.

It's honestly tough to discern any striking similarities among the mega hits and hits. They came in all shapes, sizes, and levels of athleticism.

It is somewhat noteworthy that a few of them fell in the draft much farther than expected, though. Cameron Jordan, Chandler Jones (I'll never forgive the Bears for drafting Shea McClellin over him), Montez Sweat, and James Pearce Jr. were all expected to be off the board a lot sooner during their respective drafts. To be fair, Jermaine Johnson and Chop Robinson were also expected to be selected earlier than they were, and they've been pretty uninspiring thus far.

With that said, I do think it's somewhat significant that many of the draft busts were unanimously considered reaches when they were selected. I remember the Bjoern Werner and Datone Jones picks turning heads in 2013. Nobody expected Marcus Smith to be a first-rounder the next year. No one saw the selections of L.J. Collier and Taco Charlton coming. The Saints' drafting of Payton Turner in 2021 came out of left field (although everyone should've seen it coming, considering Dennis Allen's affinity for big defensive ends).

I looked into each of their college production in an attempt to find a tell, but their numbers were even more all over the place than the numbers for the busts were. I discovered a lot of the disappointing players (6 of 11, to be exact) were one-year wonders at the collegiate level, but the same can be said for some of the best players in the study. It was a complete dead-end, I guess.

What does this (admittedly flawed but still fun) exercise say about Chicago's chances of finding a game changer if they target a pass-rusher in the first round?

Well, for starters, it should be looked at as a dart throw. This year is hopefully the first of many where they're picking in this sector. The draft is always a crap shoot, but teams picking early are generally playing on an easier difficulty than those on the back end.

With Ryan Poles emphasizing the best player available approach virtually every chance he gets, I don't think the Bears will make the dire mistake of overdrafting an edge rusher. It's not exactly rocket science, and every class is different, but many of those previous mistakes occurred when teams desperately needed to improve their pass rush, so they reached for a weakness as a result.

Luckily, the Bears are well-positioned to improve their pass-rush at some point in the draft. This year's class features one of the most loaded groups of edge rushers in recent memory.

The depth along the edge could put them in a position where a player who would normally be off the board in the top half of the first is still available at pick 25. Alternatively, if they're patient and don't feel like forcing an edge rusher in round one, then they should also be able to land a day one contributor with one of their two second-rounders.