Bear Digest

Bears QB May Need Quick Reversal of Trends

Analysis: It's down to five games and here are reasons why Justin Fields looks like a QB in need of a big Hail Mary pass at the end to win out in Chicago.
Gene Chamberlain|
Bears QB May Need Quick Reversal of Trends
Bears QB May Need Quick Reversal of Trends

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Chicago Bears

The thinking among the faithful has Justin Fields finally proving himself to be the quarterback the Bears always anticipated over the final five games,  after he finally directed a game-winning drive against Minnesota.

The big hugs Fields received after the game in the locker room from GM Ryan Poles and coach Matt Ebeflus indicated to some how he finally got over the hump in the eyes of everyone with that comeback effort against the Vikings.

Yet, Fields put it well himself after the game by saying he was responsible for the deficit they had to overcome with the two fumbles and never should have never needed the deep dig route to DJ Moore for 36 yards to win it.

There is no doubt Fields has shown great improvement in his last 17 games with 4,217 yards total offense, 25 touchdown throws to 12 interceptions and a 93 QB rating, but his decision making and reading of defenses under fire are areas where he still struggles.

On WSCR's Mully & Haugh Thursday, Tribune Bears beat columnist Brad Biggs put it very well:

"The decision the Bears have to make is they have to ask themselves a question: Is Justin Fields the guy that can win deep into the playoffs? Not get them to the playoffs–be a winning quarterback in the playoffs for them."

This is what it's all about. The Bears had a quarterback who could get them to the playoffs. Mitchell Trubisky did it twice. Yet, there was nothing to indicate he was taking over a game with decisions and throws downfield to scare and defeat good playoff teams. Even when they lost by a point on the double-doink, it was more a game where their defense delivered virtually all night long against the defending Super Bowl champions than it was Trubisky's shining moment.

No doubt Fields brings plenty of excitement and energy and the possibility for big plays to the offense. There are reasons more apparent than ever now after he actually did win one at the end to think he is not the quarterback of the future.

Actually seizing the moment a few times to win these final games of the season might be convincing to some. He'd have to do it in a very absolute manner to convince most.

It would appear Fields has a defense capable now of supporting good quarterback play. He has for the last four weeks. Fields definitely needs to prove himself in these games if possible and here's what's working against him.

1. Crunch Time

The last game might have provided an end to Fields' game-winning drought, but so much of what he has done positive has come earlier in games.

Fields' fourth-quarter passer rating is 64.0. That's 33rd in the league. He's 37th in fourth-quarter completion percentage at 55% and is even behind his own teammate in this area as Tyson Bagent's is 56.1%. His yards per attempt in the fourth quarter is only 6.52, 22nd in the league and not what you'd expect from someone who told everyone two weeks ago he considers himself a good deep passer. There's more to being a good deep passer than throwing the ball. It's knowing when and where to throw it and do it while under the stress of win/lose situations. Fields has been lacking here.

2. Carelessness

There's no other way to describe 35 fumbles in 35 games. Lamar Jackson has fumbled a lot. He has 53 fumbles in 82 games and it continues to be one of the reasons people have serious doubts about whether he'll actually ever get Baltimore to a Super Bowl. It was thought Jackson had improved at this but he has 11 already this year. Fields needed to get better at it and hasn't.

On Tuesday after Monday's win, Matt Eberflus suggested Roshcon Johnson should have done a better job blocking Danielle Hunter on the first Fields fumble. If you're counting on your running back to block the defensive end to save the day, you should file for unemployment right now. 

Fields has to have better sense than willingly step up into the place Hunter is at even with two hands on the ball and even with Darnell Wright blocking him. Hunter destroyed the Bears in the first game and put Fields on the bench for four weeks. Yet Fields carelessly stepped right up into that play. 

The other fumble against the Vikings was an example of  Fields not being careful enough as he was desperate to get to the sticks with the lead gone. He allowed a hit by safety Josh Metellus right on the ball to occur. It had to be protected at all costs with your team losing at the time and the ball in your end of the field.

Fields did the same sort of thing the previous game with 29 seconds left. He carelessly lurked too close to Aidan Hutchinson's side with a chance still to get the Bears into field goal range with a play or two like he made at the end against the Vikings. Instead, he made it easy for Hutchinson's strip sack when Darnell Wright's pass block was beaten.

3. Decision Making I

It's not just the decision who to throw the ball to, but decisions in general. He's not aware enough overall of game situation. It has happened too often.

Why is Fields as field general thinking to himself, "I've got to step up by Danielle Hunter and run with it," when he owns a 9-3 lead in the fourth quarter, the ball is on the Vikings 22 and it's second-and-10. So the play got blown up? Who cares? Even on third-and-10 they could just run the ball there, hand it off even, kick a field goal and lead by two scores with 9:46 remaining in the game.

He's not totally in control like a quarterback needs to be. He's not aware of the important situations like down and distance, the score and how his own defense is playing. Maybe he feared they would collapse on defense like, against Detroit, but a quarterback can't presume this, especially when they've owned Josh Dobbs all night to the tune of three points allowed and especially when Justin Jefferson is in street clothes.

4. Decision Making II

Independent game film reviews are constantly turning up situations where Fields doesn't see someone wide open downfield, or we'll give him the benefit of doubt here and just say he makes a poor decision. 

On some of these his eyesight would have to be questioned. Actually, it looks more like he is hurried or panicking somewhat and not focused where he needs to be focused and misses things. To use last game as a point, Equanimeous St. Brown is either invisible or not trusted. He was standing downfield near the sideline when Fields missed him completely about 30 yards downfield with no defender within 15 or 20 yards, and then on another one he did see St. Brown and needed only to set his feet and make the throw. He seemed in a big hurry even though he had a moment to do this, and overthrew the target. 

Now, St. Brown has proven himself unworthy of trust in the past. This is definitely true. But he was so wide open that he'd have to be Velus Jones Jr. not to catch it. This inability to assess quickly, in control and deliver it where there really is an open target is not something easily taught. By the second half of Year 3, it's not likely to develop to a higher level.

5. Holding the Ball

It's still happening. Now it's worse. According to NextGen Stats, Fields is now up to 3.13 seconds before throwing on average and that's actually slower than last year (3.12). In fact, it's now the slowest in the NFL among qualifying passers.

It leads to sacks. The Bears offensive line stopped giving up sacks in bunches once Bagent became quarterback. Fields has an unacceptable sack percentage of 11.6% while Bagent, playing with the same group of linemen, was at 3.4%. Sure, Bagent is getting rid of it too soon at times, but the difference between 11.6% and 3.4% isn't entirely being Checkdown Charlie. It wouldn't kill Fields to get that down to 7% even, by getting rid of the ball quicker. His linemen can't always be at fault, especially the group they're putting on the field now.

6. Better Personnel

The old argument they haven't put good enough players around Fields to let him win held water for a while. That was valid before they improved the offensive line, which they obviously have except at center. That was before they had one of five NFL wide receivers who have gone over 1,000 yards this year. DJ Moore alone should be reason to expect improvement from Fields, but Cole Kmet hasn't dropped a single pass this year and according to Pro Football Focus is the only NFL player with at least 60 targets not to drop one. He's playing at a high level as a pass target. And Darnell Mooney didn't just become a bad receiver overnight. It seems much more likely Fields isn't getting quickly through his progression off of Moore and the convenient tight end option to Mooney when he is open. Mooney has only 42 targets and will need to pick up the pace just to get to the 61 targets he had last year when he missed the last five games due to injury. When Mooney was a rookie and second-year player, he had the same role as now as No. 2 receiver and still the Bears targeted him 238 times. Admittedly, it was in a more pass-happy offense under Matt Nagy but he was averaging 7.2 targets a game. This year it's 3.5 targets a game. The discrepancy is too great to simply chalk it up to a more run-oriented offense or to having dependable Moore as a primary target. Some of it is due to Fields not getting past the early reads.

7. A Better Option

When Poles said last offseason the best option was sticking with Fields over those available, he obviously didn't foresee C.J. Stroud being this good. 

Well, everyone is jumping ship on Caleb Williams now because of how he acted after losing down the stretch or just poor play down the stretch in general. But last year and earlier this year virtually no one doubted Williams was the best quarterback available and a better option than Stroud or Bryce Young were. Williams "struggled" in his last five games to seven TD passes and one interception with 67% completions (124 of 185) for 1,612 yards. His yards per attempt (9.4) is higher than the last two seasons and his team isn't as strong as it was the last two seasons.

Another related issue here is how a rookie quarterback often means starting all over for a team with a mistake-prone first-year passer while he learns.

That's not necessarily true. Stroud shows that much. Even Young hasn't been totally bad. He has Carolina's struggling team around him and very nearly beat Fields' team in Chicago on a short week when they didn't have their best defensive player on the field. And Young actually is ranked higher than Fields in fourth-quarter passer rating.

Get the right rookie and it doesn't have to be a disaster first season while he learns. 

Putting him with a more established team can help, as well. There's little doubt Bears personnel is better now than when Eberflus took over and should be better next year with the cap situation so strong. It can remain strong with the cap situation when the QB is on his first contract but with Fields this wouldn't be the case.

Epilogue

Regardless of this situation and all others, Fields' fate is more likely to be decided once the coaching situation gets settled because if they do turn to a new coach they'll want their own QB.

So Fields has some time to put some really meaningful late-season play on tape and sway decision makers. It better be very significant tape because his second game of the seven-game home stretch was no step forward even with a game-winning drive.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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