Dealing Down Has Its Limits for Bears

It's easy to see why the Bears would be excited about the possiblity of drafting a defensive tackle like Jalen Carter.

It's so uncommon for players at this position to be so highly and universally regarded.

It's much easier to find defensive ends who can contribute sacks and pressures but even there numbers show teams know what they are doing when they make selections in the first two rounds. They're usually getting production then, but there are limits to be taken into account if the Bears are thinking of trading down and still landing defensive line help.

If they're trading down out of the top four then they better be getting first-round compensation beyond the trading partner's first-rounder this year or they could be leaving themselves open to a letdown in pursuit of a defensive linemen.

The Rarest Gem: Dominant Tackle

The law of supply and demand takes over with defensive tackles.

There has been only one defensive tackle selected in the first five picks over the last five drafts and that was Quinnen Williams of the Jets. He has proven worthy of such a high spot, with 6.9 sacks and 47.8 tackles over his four seasons. In 2022 he had a breakthrough year with 12 sacks and 55 tackles to make All-Pro and Pro Bowl for the first time.

In fact, there have been only three tackles selected in the first 10 picks over the last five drafts, and the other two succeeded but not to Williams' level. Derrick Brown was taken seventh in 2019 by Carolina and Ed Oliver ninth by Buffalo in 2020. Brown has six sacks and 78 tackles in three seasons and Oliver 14 1/2 sacks and 96 tackles in four.

It's also easy to see why a team might balk at taking a tackle so high unless they are certain to be selecting a dominant player. The production isn't always as transparent as it is for edge players. Disruption is more their goal and that's not as easily measured.

The sack totals and tackles for loss opportunities are tougher to come by on the interior with so much traffic. So, those tackles who actually put up big sack totals seem to create an even bigger stir.

Trading Down Beyond Top 10

Of course, it's always possible to come up with good defensive tackles and good defensive ends after the top 10 picks in Round 1 and this is the best argument for the Bears listening to trade offers from teams picking beyond the top five.

If they're interested in defensive tackles, they'd better be getting first-round picks as compensation when they move down. In fact, it's a good idea at either position. Doing that with a shorter drop back isn't likely to bring them this. Doing it with a big drop down is much easier.

Vita Vea and Daron Payne in 2018 and both Dexter Lawrence and Christian Wilkins in 2019 were good examples of successful defensive tackles found later in Round 1 after the top 10.

The drop-off for productivity is great after Round 1, suggesting teams usually know what they're doing when they scout out interior D-linemen.

There have been 13 defensive tackles chosen in the first round over the last five years and the great majority had success, particularly those from the defensive line gold mine that was the 2019 draft. There were 13 defensive linemen selected in Round 1 that year, including tackles Oliver, Wilkins, Lawrence, Jeffery Simmons and Jerry Tillery. The only one of the tackles who could be considered unsuccessful was Tillery, who was waived by the Chargers and then claimed by Denver.

Yet, there have been only seven second-round defensive tackles chosen in that period and the only real impact player among them has been by Christian Barmore, who shows promise with four sacks and 35 tackles in his first two seasons.

The rarity of an impactful defensive tackle is great and nothing to ignore.

The Ease at Finding Edges

At edge rusher it's different but there is still a drop-off in production after the first round.

There have been 20 edge defenders taken in the last five drafts during Round 2 and none averaged more than seven sacks. Sam Williams (4 sacks 1 year), Azeez Ojulari (13 1/2 sacks 2 years), Darrell Taylor (16 sacks, 3 years), Josh Uche (15 1/2 sacks 3 years), Harold Landry (31 sacks, 5 years) and Uchenna Nwosu (24 1/2 sacks, five years) have been the most productive.

There have been 17 edge rushers chosen in Round 1 of the last five drafts after the fifth pick and 11 averaged four sacks or more: George Karlaftis (six sacks, 1 year), Kwity Paye (10 sacks, 2 years), Micah Parsons (26 1/2 sacks, 2 years), Jaelan Phillips (8 1/2 sacks, 2 years), Odafe Oweh (8 sacks, 2 years), Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (8 sacks, 2 years), Gregory Rousseau (12 sacks, 2 years), Josh Allen (27 1/2 sacks 4 years), Rashaan Gary (22 1/2 sacks, 4 years), Brian Burns (38 sacks, 4 years) and Marcus Davenport (21 1/2 sacks, 5 years) have all averaged four sacks or more.

The bottom line is taking Will Anderson Jr. in the top four or five isn't as critical for the Bears because when it comes to edge defenders draft history says they could more easily find players who can contribute sacks at any other point in Round 1 if they move down.

However, like at tackle, there is a drop-off into Round 2. So getting back Round 1 compensation in any trade back out of the first spot becomes imperative once they start moving down later and later.

The safest plays are taking the sure early, highly coveted defensive lineman or trading down somewhere later in the top half of the draft to get back more than one first-round pick as compensation so they can maximize attempts at finding defensive linemen.

Teams with Multiple First-Round Picks

Philadelphia (10th, 31st)

Detroit (6th, 18th)

Seattle (5th, 20th)

Houston (2nd, 12th)

Teams with Multiple Second-Round Picks

Pittsburgh (32nd, 49th)

Seattle (37th, 52nd)

Detroit (48th, 55th)

Carolina (39th, 61st)

Teams with Multiple Third-Round Picks

Denver (67th, 68th)

Houston (65th, 73rd)

Miami (77th, 84th)

Arizona (66th, 96th)

N.Y. Giants (89th, 100th)

San Francisco (99th, 101st, 102nd)

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