Bear Digest

How old-school formula for Bears success prevails in Ben Johnson era

The Bears' idea of winning with passing and modern offensive football analytics has taken a different turn than Ben Johnson originally anticipated.
Gene Chamberlain|
NFL interceptions leader Kevin Byard on a return after his fifth pick of the season during Sunday's 19-17 win over Minnesota.
NFL interceptions leader Kevin Byard on a return after his fifth pick of the season during Sunday's 19-17 win over Minnesota. | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

Ben Johnson fooled everyone.

When he first came to Chicago he told everyone expected points added, or EPA, has replaced turnovers as the key determiner for NFL victories. All the while, he was planning to stress takeaways and taking care of the football.

OK, at least it has worked out that way and it definitely doesn't support the idea EPA is the key stat in determining victory. The Bears are winning with their traditional style of ball, on the ground and with defense.

It's not that Caleb Williams has been bad at passing EPA, ranking 11th overall via Sumer Sports analysis, but when you lead the NFL in taking it away, commit the second-fewest turnovers and rank fifth in time of possession, it's not exactly breaking down the door to welcome in the new age of football analytics.

Takeaway parade

The big surprise is not necessarily their offense or ranking second in rushing so they can possess the ball for so long. Johnson's success in Detroit was based on the run and play-action passing.

The surprise is taking it away so often when your two best cornerbacks are out almost the entire season and an inside linebackers has been out just as long.

With the exception of Sunday when Jaquan Brisker and Tyrique Stevenson collided to wipe out an interception, they've been solid at making the picks available to them.

“I think it's a credit to those guys that, when they do get the ball in their hands, they are bringing it in and that's not a given in this league," Johnson said. "You would think it is, but defensive players in general, I've been around a number of them that do a good job with the pass breakups but not being able to haul it in.

"And so, they do a great job with their ball skills, being able to make those into interceptions."

The totals

They've got the NFL interceptions leader in safety Kevin Byard with five and  both Nahshon Wright and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds are second in the league, tied with Jacksonville's Devin Lloyd at four.

"I think the length of those guys certainly helps between Shonny  (Wright) and Tremaine in particular," Edmunds said. "They're really long-limbed and that gives them a natural advantage there.

"And then, I think KB's (Byard) got some of the best instincts I've been around at that safety position. He's just got a really good feel for where he can almost bait the quarterbacks into putting the ball in jeopardy. That comes with experience, but he's also just a darn good football player and he has been his entire career, so that has a lot to do with it."

Wright is one of those who will be headed to the bench when Jaylon Johnson returns, but getting four interceptions and two fumble recoveries by him, to go with an 84.8 passer rating against and 59.3% completions when targeted, is outstanding backup work. Pro Football Focus definitely thinks little of Wright's work this year and has him rated 90th out of 108 cornerbacks and 78th in coverage.

His old team probably would debate that. Wright was unwanted by the Vikings after last season but definitely let them know what they missed out on Sunday.

"He's a hell of a player," Byard said after the win. "I mean to think bout it, he probably wasn't slated to be a starter this year and to come in and play as well as he has, that's the beauty of this business."

The talent factor enters in as Allen's defensive scheme in New Orleans wasn't necessarily notable for producing a great number of takeaways. They did barely crack the top 10 a few times when he was coordinator but needed a long time to reach a level of takeaways like this Bears defense has. He was Saints head coach by the time they got to third in takeaways in 2022.

As good as they've been at picking off footballs,  they're 21 short of the team record 36 the 1963 team made.

Rush and cover

Johnson sees another factor entering into the mix besides their ability to cover.

"I would say this as well, things that you overlook or the fact that some of those, you're getting good pass rush as well," Johnson said. "I don't know that we get that ball or (Byard) gets that interception (Sunday) if Grady Jarrett's not really on the lap of the quarterback there for that one.

"And so, you always have to take that into context. Also, I know those  guys don't get those stats necessarily in terms of the sacks when those things occur. Yet, they're a big part of why that ball's being put in place like that.”

An improving pass rush with starters all returning in the secondary could mean even more takeaways.

Combined with their ball-control offense, whether intended or not, the Bears' success under Ben Johnson has been more of a old-school Chicago Bears traditional approach than new wave analytical.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.