Edge Rush Market Reaches Bargain Level

The choices facing the Bears if they choose to sign an edge rusher are hardly overwhelming.

For that reason, it's understandable they haven't rushed in, so to speak, and spent a great deal of money on one of the potential defensive ends.

Bears coach Matt Eberflus said during minicamp and OTAs they would be considering the addition of an edge rusher.

The33rdteam.com has ranked the remaining unsigned free agents and only two of the top 10 are edge rushers. One of those is a player normally not mentioned as a prominent pass rusher anymore.

It's unlikely to be a decision based purely on who has the best statistics. If it was their only concern, the choice would be easy.

Here's what to take into account.

Sacks

Yannick Ngakoue is by far the best player to consider if it comes down to who sacks the quarterback and applies pressure. He is ranked sixth among all free agents available and No. 1 among edges. Ngakoue can line up wide and targets the passer. He also gets pressures and quarterback hits. Ngakoue has never had less than eight sacks in a season and averages 9.1 a season. He made 39 QB hits and 63 pressures the last two years alone, both huge numbers. On the other hand, he almost acts like he's allergic to running backs and contributes virtually nothing stopping the run. In four of his seven seasons, Pro Football Focus gave him a run-stopping grade of 45.8 or worse. Those are very poor marks. The three times he did get over 45.8 all came with Jacksonville in 2019 or earlier, a point in his career when he might have been more interested in stopping the run during his first contract.

Justin Houston would be right there with Ngakoue, if not in his 13th season. He's not a starter anymore but has had 51 1/2 sacks over the last six season, 8.6 a year. The33rdteam.com has him rated only fifth among edge rushers available, 15th among available free agents.

Kyle Van Noy is ranked fourth among edges, 14th overall and has had 31 1/2 sacks the last six seasons. At one time Melvin Ingram would have been right with them. Ingram is the rated 10th overall free agent available, the website says, and second best among edges. It seems he's a bit overrated by them considering he had eight sacks total over the last three seasons. He hasn't had more than seven sacks since 2017, when he did that three consecutive years. The Bears already have a couple edge rushers who hit seven sacks once in their career. Do they need another one who is in his 12th season?

Versatility

Jadeveon Clowney has been both a run stopper and pass rusher at high levels in his career. He's ranked only third-best edge and 11th best free agent available by The33rdTeam.com. Still, he's easily the most versatile and has all bases covered here. The Bears talk about the importance of playing the run but are they really looking for that in this case? They have two defensive end signings who are run stuffers with DeMarcus Walker and Rasheem Green. It would seem they should be more interested in someone who could help on passing downs and not stopping the run.

Clowney's pass rushing numbers have dipped over the last four years with 14 sacks, but he did get nine with Cleveland in 2021.

Van Noy, Carlos Dunlap and Carl Nassib might be the next best all-around types. A linebacker by trade, Van Noy had 46 tackles last year as he played the run and rushed the passer. He's had 31 1/2 sacks in the last six years and has had 402 tackles in that same time period. Dunlap is a bigger end at 6-6, 285 and it helps him stopping the run. The33rdTeam.com ranks him 24th among free agents and sixth among edge rushers left. His pass rush has faded somewhat to 24 1/2 sacks over five seasons after he averaged 8.1 for his first 10 seasons. Nassib is a backup and called a depth piece by The33rdTeam.com. He has only 25 1/2 sacks for a seven-year career, 7 1/2 his last three seasons and stgarted 38 times in the 99 games he has played. He's 28th among all free agents and seventh in the rankings for edges, but he does a decent job stopping the run with 45 tackles for loss in his 99 games.

Age

Ngakoue is the only younger edge rusher at 28. Clowney, at 30, is probably still not looking at this as one of the final years of his career, nor Nassib, who is 30. But age is definitely a factor with every one of the other edges ranked by the33rdteam.com in the top 35 free agents.

Ingram is 34, Houston 34, Van Noy 32 and Dunlap 34.

The biggest problem the Bears have with age isn't so much how it affects the player but what it does to the player's thinking. They get to be that old and they're looking to land with a Super Bowl contender as a spare part. Obviously the Bears are not there yet.

System Fit

Houston played in Eberflus' defense two years with the Colts and is the best fit for this Tampa-2 scheme in this regard. Ngakoue has played with the Colts but not until after Eberflus left. He is a player who can play the wide nine and has speed to come from well outside, which would suit this scheme as a third-down rusher. Van Noy is the least compatible player as a 3-4 edge from the Patriots and Chargers or even as an inside linebacker at times in his career.

Both Dunlap and Houston do know GM Ryan Poles well, if that means anything. They both signed with the Chiefs while Poles worked for Kansas City.

Clowney is a player who has played in several different types of schemes and either as the main edge rush threat or as a secondary one.

The Contract

At this point in the free agent market, the money should be way down. Teams no longer have the bigger money to spend. However, with so few younger edge rushers available who can play for a team more than one year, Ngakoue's deal should still be at a higher level. A bidding war, of sorts, could result with a team or two who feel they're an edge away from the Super Bowl getting involved. Brad Biggs of the Tribune reported Ngakoue would want $8 million to $10 million" on the next deal and also wants a contract for more than one year. Are the Bears willing to do this when they're a building team, trying to put this all together by leaning heavily on the draft?

It's possible the money for Clowney, or at least his demands, could be higher. Clowney last year took $10 million to play one more year in Cleveland, this after he had already been paid $8 million for one year there. Prior to that, he had been on a $13 million, one-year deal. That's the kind of money younger, effective all-around pass rushers make coming off their first year and not guys in their 30s who haven't been making sacks. Still, he managed to command it and it's likely to be somewhere his agent visits when negotiating.

The money should be better for others. When Frank Clark got $5.5 million for one year, it may have been a signal what the rest of the market can expect from this market because Clark is an all-around type of edge who is still effective enough and not even in his 30s yet.

Ingram played a year for Miami at $4 million on his last deal. Houston was at $3.5 million for one year, guaranteed with Baltimore. Dunlap was at $3 million, Van Noy $2.25 million and Nassib at a near minimum of $1.187 million. Those were cash figures when they were all a year younger.

Bottom Line

If you're looking to solve this position for a few years and have money like the Bears do, Ngakoue might be the best way to go. They signed Walker for two years but Green for only one and $2.5 million so it wouldn't be out of the question they would take a shot at more than one year at a situational pass rusher. Ngakoue is also their best path if they don't really want to draft an edge next year and want to use the pick for something else, like possibly a receiver or even quarterback. If it's a one-year thing while they hope to draft someone on the edge next year, then the best option is Houston or Ingram. Give it to Houston based on his knack for continuing to sack the quarterback even at an advanced age. Guys like that frequently get into their late 30s and have the ability to still drag down quarterbacks.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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