How to Cash in on Bears and Lions

Justin Fields and DJ Moore as a passing combination has won over many fantasy owners throughout the year.

It's among the major plays again this week for fantasy owners who are in playoffs or are playing the daily fantasy sports game. Even against a 9-3 Detroit Lions team and cold, windy Soldier Field conditions, the passing connection the Bears have built figures to produce.

Michael Fabiano of Sports Illustrated points out the Lions defense has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers since Week 10 and the NFL's highest catch rate (76.2%) to all wide receivers.

When you're allowing the highest catch rate in the league for a given period and your facing one of the league's best pass receivers after the catch, as Moore is fourth in yards after the catch now (444), it can mean trouble for the defense.

Three times in the last four games before Fields' dislocated thumb the two had gone for 104 yards together in the passing game, then in the first two since Fields' return they went for 96 and 114.

The Bears may or may not be able to execute well enough for four quarters to beat a division leader, but all indications are they will at least be able to move the ball and score and those who want to take advantage need to look at the Bears combination of Fields and Moore.

Here's who to start and sit for Week 14 from Lions at Bears.

Start 'Em

1. Bears QB Justin Fields

With more than 100 yards rushin in each of the last three games against the Lions, it's apparent Detroit hasn't the means for stopping the Bears QB on the ground or in the air. In fact, Fields seems able to move it either way. He just needs to quit being his own worst enemy by fumbling. SI.com points out the Lions allow the fourth-most daily fantasy sports points to opposing quarterbacks, so there's another reason to expect something in fantasy from Fields this week. Add in one other extremely important note and that's he really needs to succeed here at season's end because his future in Chicago depends on it.

2. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

The Bears did a fair job on St. Brown last time and he still managed to score a critical touchdown and get 77 yards on eight catches. He has 23 catches in the last three games for 258 yards against the Bears.

3. Bears WR DJ Moore

Moore is being labeled the fantasy play of the week by DraftKings and FanDuel. In his last six games playing with Fields, Moore has scored at least 16.4 points for PPR leagues five times. The only thing that could hold Moore back in this one is the Bears own offense, which tends to lean heavily on the run and still will incorporate Cole Kmet's receiving. The running attack has all the backs available and healthy for the first time since early October and it could offer enough options to keep Moore's receiving down a bit.

4. Lions RB David Montgomery

Returning where he used to play home games will mean much to the Lions starter. Also, he had a strong game last time against the Bears with 12 runs for 76 yards even though the Bears rate No. 1 in the league against the run. Montgomery was shut down by the Saints defense eventually after a strong start, and managed to run for 71 yards against a stout Packers defense. So it's still a difficult assignment for the Bears to stop their former starter, who is a big fantasy threat with 10 touchdown runs on the year and one in each of the last four games.

5. Lions TE Sam LaPorta

The Bears have the mechanisms to shut down LaPorta again, after they held him to career lows of three catches and 18 yards in the last game between the teams. With strong pass coverage linebackers T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds, as well as strong safety Jaquan Brisker and slot cornerback Kyler Gordon, they have the areas covered where LaPorta can get open. However, he has been able to consistently catch passes and gain against most defenses, so the laws of probability and the genius of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson say the Lions will make better use of him this time.

6. Bears RB Khalil Herbert

It's time now for Herbert to get into the running flow to the extent he had before his injury. He needed time to work back into it after his ankle injury and now has had a couple games and a bye week to be 100%. Detroit held him to 2.2 yards a carry last time but the Lions will be without their key defensive weapon against the run, defensive tackle Alim McNeill, because he just went on IR. Also, part of the reason for Detroit's effectiveness against Herbert last time was all of their run blitzing. The Bears have tried to paint this as just aggressive linebackers filling gaps. That's what run blitzing is by definition. If they get away with this two games in a row, then Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy really should have a reason to worry about his job status for the future.

7. Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Detroit finally is using Gibbs more now as a running back. He has 67 carries the last five games after 50 in the first five. He has 379 yards in the last five games and 247 for the first give. Expect he'll get a load of carries but also maybe more targets. In the last eight games he has been targeted only once more times than he was in that last Bears game. Consdiering all the cover-2 the Lions will face, passes to the backs are certified ways to attack.

8. Bears TE Cole Kmet

He's well down the list here because last game they focused more on keeping him in to help in pass blocking against Aidan Hutchinson and the blitz. Expect the Bears to be a little more willing to let him release and attack in the passing game. He has 31 catches in the last five games even including that three-catch game against the Lions.

9. Lions QB Jared Goff

He's in the last position before sit' em status and many leagues are classifying him as a player to sit this week because he is playing outdoors, in the cold and against a rising pass defense. Goff did too much at game's end last time to think he'll be shut down this game. Also, anyone who thinks he can't play in cold and wind needs to look at last year's stat line at Soldier Field. In 34-degree weather with 13 mph winds, Goff went 19 of 26 for 236 yards, a touchdown and wasn't picked. He led the Lions to 31 points. To be sure, he does have a history of not playing well in the cold but the fact he did it last year says he can handle it again.

Sit 'Em

1. Bears WR Darnell Mooney

He's not helping much as a receiver and apparently even in the running game as a blocker. PFF has him graded the worst run-blockning wide receiver in the league this week. You keep expecting Mooney to break out of his 25-catch funk at some point based on his past production as a Fields target but that production came when he wasn't an afterthought in the passing game like the way he is now with the Bears since Moore came on board.

2. Bears RB D'Onta Foreman

They haven't had a good history this year of players immediately coming back in on offense to contribute after leg injuries. It might take him more to get going much like it did Herbert.

3. Bears RB Roschon Johnson

Many perceived last week as a sign Johnson was taking over now as starter. If it's the case, the Bears sure have low standards. He hit only 3.5 yards a carry last week. His pass blocking was fairly strong but they don't give him fantasy points for blocking. Johnson continues to be a threat as a receiver but it's safe to expect his role this week being more in support and smaller in scope.

4. Lions WR Josh Reynolds

They don't get him enough targets to make an impact in fantasy ball but when he does get involved he rarely fails to succeed with four TD catchces and 450 yards for his 28 catche.

5. Lions WR Jameson Williams

He hasn't had enough impact overall but has a few spots where they use him. One was their comeback over the Bears on a long throw.

Defense

The Lions defense remains high against the run but it's because teams are picking them apart in the air now. They've fallen to 21st against the pass and only six teams have given up more TD passes. Aidan Hutchinson remains a choice for IDP leagues, even though his sacks have been limited to 5 1/2.

The Bears defense is definitely on the rise and showing dominant tendencies since Montez Sweat's arrival, but they're not at an elite level where an NFL fantasy owner would want the defense they use in the playoffs to be. They're also as inconsistent as all get out, caving against good offenses sporadically in games so that they can't be depended upon yet.

Considering the picks they've come up with the last two games, Eddie Jackson is a good IDP bet to make some plays because he is the only one who hasn't been doing it yet and has always been a strong defender against the Lions.

Sweat's production should be more limited against Detroit because of Penei Sewell's presence.

The Betting Window

After a week away for the bye BearDigest is back in the fray with best bets. A 3-2 record for the power plays two weeks ago wasn't up to the 4-1 and 5-0 standard of previous weeks but still a winning mark and ran the string of weeks without a losing record to five straight.

The Line: Lions by 3 (Over/under 43)

BearDigest Pick: Lions 24, Bears 20

BearDigest Record: 7-5 overall, 5-7 ATS (6-6 over/under)

NFL Best Bets

Record: 32-21-2

Week 12 Record: 3-2

Week 14 Best Bets

Bengals -2 vs. Colts

Seahawks +13 1/2 vs. 49ers

Chiefs -1 vs. Bills

Eagles +3 1/2 vs. Cowboys

Browns -3 vs. Jaguars

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven