Bear Digest

Bears Draft Success Hinges on a Trade

Analysis: The success of this Bears draft at plugging roster holes depends on a trade of either Justin Fields or the top pick, and there's no way around it.
Gene Chamberlain|
Bears Draft Success Hinges on a Trade
Bears Draft Success Hinges on a Trade

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Chicago Bears

The idea of both drafting Caleb Williams and keeping Justin Fields gets tossed around quite a bit these days.

Its drawbacks in terms of cap cost after the first year are obvious. It also could lead to locker room issues.

The biggest problem it could cause might be how the Bears address their personnel issues through the 2024 NFL Draft.

As the Bear seek to build their team through the draft with varying degrees of success, they face a draft issue this year caused by need. The only draft solution would be possible by trading Fields or by trading the first pick.

Limited Receiver Success After Round 2

The Bears have the ninth pick besides their No. 1 pick overall.

A natural inclination is for them to look at one of the top wide receivers in the draft to pair with their new quarterback if they do take Williams.

Wide receiver really is their biggest need in this draft, even moreso than quarterback because Fields' floor after three years in the league is about the 21st ranked quarterback. This is where The 33rd Team's Derrik Klassen ranks Fields among NFL QBs and it's about the worst he's been ranked in season-ending QB ratings from various websites. Usually he's been somewhere between 17th and 21st.

Free agent Darnell Mooney may have played himself out of Chicago in 2023 and there are no other receivers worthy of proven second or third status within their group. It's an obvious need.

However, their other great need is pass rusher to remove pressure from Montez Sweat.

Not Much Better Later on the Edge

It's not difficult to contend with one great pass rusher. The Bears saw what happens against a pocket passer with Sweat neutralized through numbers in pass blocking when they faced Green Bay in the season finale. The lack of heat on Jordan Love after the first quarter greatly enhanced how confident he was waiting for receivers to get open and stepping into his throws. The Bears need the other pass rush threat to prevent this with any of the three opposing NFC North QBs, whether they get it from inside or the edge.

Even if they come up with a defensive tackle solution in free agency, the Bears need the other edge complement because the defensive scheme they use relies greatly on a rotation of pass rushers and they are sadly lacking here.

Well, if the Bears draft a wide receiver. DeMarcus Walker had 4 1/2 sacks last year and no one else on the team besides him has ever had as many as seven sacks in a season. He only hit seven once.

So if they choose the receiver at No. 9 or if they choose the pass rusher at No. 9, their next chance to pick a player comes at No. 75.

The Bears have two picks in the top 10, but the Packers have five picks in the top 100. The Bears need to increase their potential for the draft to fill needs by finding a second-round or later first-round pick and plug the gap between No. 9 and No. 75.

The cutoff for being able to consistently find receivers who produce bigger numbers is usually the end of Round 2. It's pretty clear.

In the last draft six of the eight chosen in the first two rounds had at least 43 receptions as rookies. Only four of the 25 chosen after Round 2 did. It usually works this way. Only four of the 13 receivers drafted in Rounds 1 and 2 in 2022 have averaged 43 or more catches their first two years and only one of the 15 taken after Round 2 did it. For 2021 it was five of the 10 in Rounds 1 and 2 have averaged at least 43 catches in three seasons and only three of the 25 taken after Round 2 have.

Mooney was a rookie in 2020 and seven of the 13 taken in Rounds 1 and 2 went on to average at least 43 catches. Mooney was the only one among 22 taken after Round 2 who has averaged 43 or more.

So if the Bears go edge rusher with the ninth pick, the odds are very good that if they come up with a receiver at No. 75 he will not be a big producer. It might not be a Velus Jones Jr. type but the bigger production can't be expected and they need it.

Conversely, their chances of coming up with productive pass rusher with pick No. 75 or later are not much better. There have been 39 players drafted in the last four years who averaged 4.0 sacks or more and only 11 of those came after Round 2.

Someone Has to Go

It's clear the Bears are going to need to come up with a second-round pick because they won't be able to feel entirely positive they've addressed the need for more receiver help and more pass rush help with merely the ninth pick of the draft and the 75th.

How best to come up with the second-rounder or another first-rounder.

Well, clearly it's not by holding on to both Caleb Williams and Justin Fields.

One will have to be elsewhere.

There are some other creative ways they can come up with a second-rounder and still have one of the top quarterbacks, but it couldn't be Williams as their first pick if they want to hang onto Fields and also have a second-rounder to address the other issues.

If they traded Fields for that second- or first-rounder, they could keep Williams and have their second-round gap problem solved.

If they trade Williams they could solve their receiver-pass rush problem easily with the draft and might even be able to pick another lesser quarterback prospect in the draft.

The scenery could change a bit in March free agency regarding their needs considering the cash the Bears have available.

However, there are too many variables involved in free agency to count on this.

Everyone thought they could get their pass rush issues solved last year in free agency when they had the most cash in the league available and they came out with two linebackers and no edge rusher of consequence.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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