A Miracle Win or Blowout Embarrassment?

Matt Nagy could use an upset win over Green Bay from out of the blue, but shockers of this variety rarely occur in teams so unevenly matched and headed in different directions.

There is the tendency to make the Bears-Packers game into something more than it is, and it's even easier when the coaching staff's future is on the line.

Bears coach Matt Nagy has tried to keep his situation out of it all week in preparing the team to face Green Bay. He's already had a pretty good record at being able to do this when they played Detroit on Thanksgiving and the sharks were circling over his job.

If anyone would be entitled to attach more significance to this game, it is Nagy after a 1-6 record against Green Bay and his team's 4-8 mark on this year. He's trying not to make this his "Hail Mary" pass while also being realistic.

"You can make it personal. I don't," Nagy said. "You can say 'backed into a corner.' I don't. You know that for me I just believe in making sure that we all just focus on the moment right now.

"If you worry about the future, what could happen or anything like that, it takes away I feel very confident with these guys. I just believe in them. I believe in this team. I believe in our coaches."

There is also the not-so-small matter of the Packers, a 9-3 team still fighting for home field in the playoffs

"And now we get an opportunity to play a great team," Nagy said.

One man's opportunity is another's impossible task.

One thing the Bears do have working in their favor is Green Bay is coming off the bye week. Not every team has a record after the bye like the Bears do—losing every post-bye game since 2013—but the Packers haven't been very good, either. They have lost four straight after byes, including two under coach Matt La Fleur.

Here is how the Bears stack up against the Packers, who wins and why.

Bears Running

The Bears ran for 154 yards on Green Bay earlier and seem to function better as a running team when Justin Fields offers a threat on the ground in addition to their running backs. David Montgomery is playing banged up, however. And Khalil Herbert has struggled to gain since being replaced after Montgomery's knee injury healed. Washington ran on the Packers for 195 yards on Oct. 24 but since then the Packers defense has been lights out on the ground. No one has more than 90 against them and five opponents have averaged 76.8 yards. Even the Vikings and Dalvin Cook had only 90 yards against Green Bay, which ranks eighth against the run. Edge to Packers.

Bears Passing

The Bears would like to think Fields can pick up where he left off against the Steelers, but he had a mediocre game against Baltimore before leaving with his injury and has missed two straight games. Getting Allen Robinson back should help to at least free up some other receivers, notably Darnell Mooney, but the injury-riddled Packers secondary is good regardless. They are ninth against the pass. Edge to Packers.

Packers Running

It's not so much the dominance of the Packers running game as it is the timing of it. Green Bay is only 21st in rushing yards but Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon and the offensive line produce the necessary yardage when needed. An offensive line beset with injuries has done this most of the year. The Bears' biggest defensive weakness has been an inability to consistently stop the run, but one of the main reasons for this has been the absence of a healthy Akiem Hicks. Their veteran defensive lineman is healthier now than any time since missing their Week 5 game against the Raiders with a groin injury. No Edge.

Packers Passing

The ability of the Packers to hit the Bears with a wide range of pass plays has been their greatest asset -- that and Aaron Rodgers. They execute the three-step and five-step game well and mix in screens with the deep ball. It keeps the Bears' overmatched secondary off balance. Rodgers has been doing this long enough that even a few weeks without practicing much due to toe surgery shouldn't be a problem. The pass rush has been the only thing propping up the Bears defense most of the year, as their run defense and cornerbacks other than Jaylon Johnson have struggled. But the pass rush is rendered less effective with Rodgers' ability to throw quickly and on time, or to make passes after he has scrambled. Edge to Packers.

Special Teams

Jakeem Grant is sixth in the league among punt returners with at least 20 chances (8.6 yards) and the Packers' coverage units for both punts and kicks are abysmal. Green Bay is last in the league covering punts (17.1 yards) and 23rd covering kickoffs. Packers kicker Mason Crosby might be showing his age with nine misses this year on field goals and one on extra points. Edge to Bears.

Coaching

Matt LaFleur's 0-2 record coming out of byes is perplexing but they're facing the Bears and rarely have a problem being at fever pitch for these games. Is there anything that suggests Matt Nagy can coach his team to a big road win in December over a playoff-bound opponent, let alone over Green Bay after the Packers have dominated this series recently? If so, someone needs to point it out to Bears ownership because the  season and coaching regime are on the brink or worse. Edge to Packers.

Prediction

The Line: Packers by 12 1/2 (over/under 42 1/2).

BearDigest 2021 Record: 11-1 straight up, 9-3 vs. the spread.

Final Score: Packers 45, Bears 14

In years when the last two Bears coaches were fired, they lost at Green Bay 35-14 (John Fox, 2017) and 55-14 (Marc Trestman, 2014). Split the difference for Matt Nagy. When the last five Bears coaches were fired, they all lost at Green Bay that season.

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