Bears Have Options Against Cardinals

Justin Fields' ability down the stretch in games is going to be questioned from now until the decision on his future finally comes down.

It should be.

With a 2023 fourth-quarter quarterback rating of 55.3, he's 39th in the league. That means he's worse than all the starters plus six backups. He's two spots worse than Mitchell Trubisky.

Then again, a fourth-quarter passer rating can be a bit glitchy because you're dealing with smaller numbers. For instance, Patrick Mahomes is 35th in the league this year, Trevor Lawrence 30th and Matthew Stafford 27th.

Still, a better indication of a quarterback's ability under real game situation pressure is third down because it happens more often. Fields' third-down passer rating is 75.8, 25th in the league.

The same quirks of numbers doesn't really occur here due to sample size as Mahomes is third in the league (112.4). Fields is one behind Desmond Ridder and one ahead of Zach Wilson.

Despite all of this, the Bears QB should perform this week against the Arizona Cardinals and even come up with big numbers. He's facing one of the worst defenses he has faced, even if they recently held Pittsburgh to 10 points.

"I mean yeah, they've still got some talented guys over there," Fields said. "They do a lot of stuff. Of course their new DC this year, they do a lot of the sim pressures, have that five-DB shell at the back end of the defense. You know, they hold their shell for as long as possible, give you some messed-up looks so it's going to be important for the guys to confirm coverage post-snap."

If the Bears don't find this an easy matchup for their offense something is wrong.

For one, Fields faces the Bears defense in off-season and training camp and the Cardinals are playing a lot of the same pass coverages the Bears use with disguises because Jonathan Gannon is head coach. Gannon was on Matt Eberflus' defensive staff in Indianapolis. Arizona's base defense is 3-4, though, but the coverages used by Cardinals defensive coordinator, Nick Rallis, who was on Gannon's Eagles staff, have plenty of Eberflus/Gannon/Colts coverage influence.

"They do a really good job with their disguise," coach Matt Eberflus said. "JG (Gannon) is into that, and certainly he's had success when he was at Philly for those two years. Jonathan’s a heckuva coach. He really knows how to scheme people up.

"He was my defensive back at the Colts and he did a heckuva job year, then went on to Philly, like I said, and had some dominant defenses there as well. The first thing that comes to mind is disguise."

As they say, you can run, but you can't hide. This is true with Arizona due to its talent level in the first year of a new coaching staff.

The Cardinals are 31st on run defense and they've faced the 30th most rushing attempts. They've also faced the fourth-most passing attempts, which all adds up to being on the field a lot. They are 28th at possession time and the Bears are third in possession time. The Bears and Fields are at their best when they can possess the ball and should be able to move the chains, keep the ball and do enough to beat the Cardinals.

Fields would be a main reason as a running quarterback who can throw well enough, provided it's not the fourth quarter or third down.

Fields still teases by providing spectacular plays other QBs can't, like his spin, sprint and throw last week against Cleveland on the TD pass to Cole Kmet. The plays when he's not spectacular are the ones that leave everyone scratching their heads.

Here are the other players who should enjoy strong days against Arizona's defense, which has given up more touchdowns (45) than every team except Washington (48).

1. RB D'Onta Foreman

Much depends on the blocking he'll get, because he's not the type of back to create on his own. However, he's entirely healthy now and should get a good number of attempts to attack a defense a bit undersized on the edges for what they're trying to accomplish. A strong power back with speed can be the worst nightmare for the Cardinals, who have given up 148 yards

rushing on average over the last eight games.

2. DE Montez Sweat

The so-called sweat could play a role as the Cardinals are going to need to get rookie right tackle Paris Johnson help. Johnson is ranked 62nd out of 83 tackles by PFF and has allowed eight sacks while committing 11 penalties. Sweat is on a roll now and has 12 1/2 sacks total, six with the Bears in six games. Teams double-team him and he still seems able to beat it.

3. RB Khalil Herbert

His return from an ankle injury has been totally disappointing with only 76 yards over four games since returning from injury but he keeps getting hit in the backfield on his runs. Before the injury this wasn't happening. The Cardinals' problems stopping the run indicates he could have time to build up momentum or at least make a few steps before cutting, and then he's dangerous. Herbert and Fields on RPO should be able to work what they do well against this scheme, which wants to back up and play zone and tries to be stout against the run without the right personnel. Arizona on defense is a bit like the Bears last year. They have a sound scheme but not the right people to do it.

4. WR DJ Moore

He'll be going against Antonio Hamilton, who has had a respectable season, graded 60th out 119 NFL cornerbacks by Pro Football Focus. He's not Pro Bowl material and the other cornerbacks provide little help, with all of the other three who have played meaningful reps being rated 85th or worse. The Cardinals have good safeties but the underneath routes against shell coverage should be open all day long, especially off play-action against a shell-shocked defensive front.

5. S Jaquan Brisker

He's going to get plenty of work because the Cardinals' favorite target is tight end Trey McBride and Brisker should be on the tight end, like he was much of last week. A total of 34% of Cardinals passes have been targeted at tight ends, which is an abnormally high number for the position. Also, Arizona's best wide receiver is Marquise Brown, who is injured. So they're more likely than ever to look for the tight end where Brisker or T.J. Edwards or Edmunds will be in coverage.

6. LB Tremaine Edmunds

The Cardinals' greatest weapon on offense is Kyler Murray's legs and combination of running/passing. The Bears scheme should be at its best playing against a scrambler because of their reliance on zone coverage. They're facing the scrambler. Scramblers haven't hurt them much. The only QB to run for much was Taysom Hill and that wasn't a normal offensive situation. He was gaining yards as a wildcat quarterback, a running back or a tight end on tight end-around runs more than as a scrambler on pass plays. Edmunds has four interceptions in the last six games and his pass coverage has been outstanding in the middle of the field. His speed in this scheme should be a problem for Murray.

7. LB T.J. Edwards

As sa tackling machine much of the year, Edwards figures to be prominent against a team that is going to try to run even if they are facing the No. 1 run defense in the NFL. The Cardinals just ran for 234 yards against the team that was No. 1 on run defense, San Francisco. They'll try it against Edwards, Andrew Billings and Justin Jones up front. It's unlikely to be easy for them. The Browns had 29 yards rushing on the Bears last week.

8. T Darnell Wright

For a change the Bears right tackle doesn't have to face Thanos or Godzilla. He has been facing a steady diet of players like Myles Garrett, Khalil Mack, Aidan Hutchinson and should be able to dominate in the wide zone blocking scheme and get the backs or Fields running space around right end or off right tackle.

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