Different Circumstances Bears Change

The trade offers will be coming this draft for the Bears, of this there can be little doubt.

Bears GM Ryan Poles has equated the situation to last year, when he made the trade bringing DJ Moore to Chicago and the chance for the first pick this year.

"Yeah, I'll actually go back to last year, and I've got to stay open minded about it, but I really—not to use the same quote, but want to say blown away, but it's the same setup," Poles said.

Is it?

Actually, much has changed. Entering a draft may seem like a world unto itself but it is all impacted by the team's situation.

While Poles is looking to be "blown away" by a quarterback just like he was waiting last year when it was assumed he'd keep the quarterback and make the trade.

If Poles is going to be "blown away" this year it's a different situation, even if he didn't say it.

The script has flipped on the Bears and this is a reason why he's less likely this year to be lured into making a deal.

The Bears would need to be blown away by the trade offer this year and not the quarterback because the quarterback they can take, Caleb Williams, is without a doubt the consensus top choice in this draft but even moreso beacuse of the Bears' own situation.

Here's how the script has flipped and why the Bears seem far more likely to keep the pick this year and turn down the deals as a result.

1. Justin Fields Knowledge

Last year the current Bears staff and GM had seen Justin Fields for 15 starts and saw enough improvement over the film of his play in what essentially was 10 games as a rookie to decide he was worth keeping over Bryce Young and also C.J. Stroud.

Now, they've had him for 28 starts under Matt Eberflus and have found they have someone with spectacular upside but someone who hasn't been able to win at games' ends yet after 38 NFL starts. He leans too much on running and although he has become better at keeping his eyes upfield, he's not doing it to the extent he could be better at it than Caleb Williams. If you look at Williams' film, he always is looking upfield for the chance to throw as a play breaks down.

The Bears know better what they have and can make a more informed decision than the one they made last year when they didn't want Stroud over Fields.

2. The Talent Situation

The Bears needed talent in the worst way last year after a 2022 when they couldn't add much free agent talent due to cap concerns and after former GM Ryan Pace had left them in a bad draft situation without many picks early in the draft. They needed the trade down for the extra talent they'd acquire both for last season and in the future. They had the most cap space last year and signed more help. They added Montez Sweat through trade. They acquired DJ Moore.

While they still have a few roster holes, like at center, wide receiver and pass rusher, their overall talent level has improved greatly and there appears to be fewer places to plug. They spent that money and the picks last year, already. Also, they have the option of spending millions more again before this draft with the eighth-most available effective cap space and the potential for much more if they cut backup lineman Cody Whitehair or even starting safety Eddie Jackson.

So they're not in the desperate situation for talent upgrades across the board like last year.

That opportunity to trade down has to be much better than last year. So, in essence, it's the offer that must "blow away" the Bear this time and not the quarterback.

3. The Division Situation

After last offseason, the Bears could at least say they didn't have to leapfrog a lot of teams to get to the top of the heap. The Detroit Lions were expected to win the NFC North but had only been 9-8 and didn't get to the playoffs. The Green Bay Packers were perceived as a dissolving team with Aaron Rodgers leaving and too much youth or injured veterans left to be in a commanding position again. The Vikings looked like a joke as they let almost all their defense leave and then got rid of Dalvin Cook, their running threat.

Instead, the Packers improved, the Lions got much better and the Vikings defense has gone from 27th, 30th and 31st the last three years to 16th under coordinator Brian Flores. Their offense was only down this year because of the loss of their QB due to injury.

The Bears need drastic improvement in one particular aspect of their game to keep up with that competition and it's going to come from a real passer better than it will from a player who has been more dangerous as a runner than passer in three seasons.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven