Why It's Possible for Bears to Take the North

After getting in their chuckles about the Lions' gambling finally catching up with them, Bears fans are left with three realizations heading into 2024.

The first is Green Bay probably rates as much a favorite for the division title now as Detroit, after going 9-8 with a group of young players and a quarterback in his first year of starting.

The second is Detroit had a few players who figure to be bigger contributors next year and were injured in 2023, mainly edge rusher James Houston.

The third is the Bears no longer even have the most cap space in the NFC North to spend. The Lions now have the most effective cap space at $45.2 million according to Overthecap.com. The Bears are at $34.7 million, although cutting Cody Whitehair would get them close to the Lions and if they cut Eddie Jackson it adds about another $18 million. The problem with cutting Jackson is they then need to replace another starter who knows what he's doing.

What this means is Detroit can afford to go out and pursue a ridiculous defensive line signing like Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones just as much as the Bears could, if he were to be left without a franchise tag by the Chiefs.

Either team's defensive front could use help and it might be an off-season bidding war to try and find an upgrade or two.

It's not just the Lions or the Packers, either. If Minnesota finds a way to bring back Kirk Cousins, and with Justin Jefferson back and Jordan Adsison the Vikings have the means to attack any defense. Brian Flores' scheme gives them an edge on most opponents even if they've repeatedly neglected the personnel aspect of improving their defense.

So how do the Bears get better than Detroit or Green Bay and even Minnesota?

The easy way is simply for one or more of those teams to get worse because of coaching change. This really only affects the Lions and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, should he leave as expected for a head coaching job. It's not going to be easy replacing his touch.

The Packers will have a different defensive coordinator and normally it takes at least a short time for players to adapt to their new roles in a new scheme but it's entirely possible they'd find someone capable of running a system very similar and minimize the impact.

This doesn't apply to Minnesota, which will have the same approach on defense because teams without coaches were to dumb or stubborn to bring in Brian Flores. His scheme gave the Bears so much trouble that his departure would be a huge break for Chicago's offense.

All the normal means will be used to improve, of course.

Having two draft picks in the first nine doesn't hurt. This can be overrated. They had only two draft picks step into the starting lineup regularly this year in Darnell Wright and Tyreek Stevenson. It's possible their draft this year would produce the same number.

The cap cash they do have available is going to be anywhere from ninth-most to fifth-most.

There is one way that can't be measured but in their case it's likely to be the most effective method of improvement.

They will improve from within. Here's how:

1. Old-Fashioned Experience

They had three of their defensive starters and two offensive starters begin the season with one year of NFL experience or none. Tyrique Stevenson, Jaquan Brisker, Kyler Gordon, Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright all received excellent NFL educations and appear better able to step up. In fact, they already where with Stevenson and Gordon combining for six interceptions and Jones grading out far better with Pro Football Focus for his pass blocking than in Year 1.

Defensive tackle Gervon Dexter didn't start but like with the other younger defensive players, his improvement became obvious as the year went along and he participated on four sacks in the last five games. He'll be a bit better from the beginning.

2. More Continuity

This one especially applies to their offensive line. Can an offensive line continue to keep losing players on a weekly basis the way the Bears have? Is that even possible? The Bears have been relatively fortunate in terms of avoiding season-ending injury on the offensive line but they have had nagging or less serious injuries disrupt their ability to put the same group of blockers on the field week by week in both of Matt Eberflus' season. This is a position where continuity means so much in building a cohesive blocking group. In 2022 they had to change lines nine times on a weeo-to-week basis, not to mention the times they had injuries in games. It had to get better this year. It didn't. It got worse. They changed 10 times on a week-to-week basis due to injuries. The Vikings changed 10 times, as well. The Packers did it five times in 2023. But over the last nine regular-season games and their two playoff games Green Bay was able to play the same group together and protect Jordan Love. The Lions changed 11 times, one more than the Bears, but they finally got the same group together four straight weeks to close the regular season.

3. Scheme Knowledge

The defense's knowledge of the scheme showed up from the early part of the season as they took over as the best run defense after being 31st in 2022. Their gap fits were better. Although they had injuries in the secondary, the subs also picked up experience and played better. The entire defense knows this scheme now. It's part of the reason they produced three takeaways or more in five of their final seven games. Tremaine Edmunds might have been the biggest problem early as he hadn't practiced or played much of training camp or preseason and as the middle linebacker this was critical. As he began playing more, he produced takeaways with four interceptions and a forced fumble in the final nine games. There could be one or two new defensive linemen and one secondary member this year.

The problem the Bears will have is an entirely new offensive system. Then again, you could look at their inability to throw for more than 3,4211 yards last year as a team, or finish better than 20th on offense in two seasons under Luke Getsy, it's difficult to imagine them worse.

4. Coaching

They're getting rid of coaches who they didn't see as productive enough and stressed teaching ability in hiring the new staff members. If they're right about this ability, it will only benefit the players.

As GM Ryan Poles said during the season-ending press comference, sometimes you see teams make changes and improve. It happens regularly.

It's hard to see how younger receivers like Tyler Scott or Velus Jones Jr. couldn't improve with different coaching. Scott, especially, showed promise last season on occasion.

Look at the Houston Texans, changing staffs and then going to the playoffs.

We literally got this #1 overall pick for free. We gave up NOTHING to get it. And mfs are worried about the "risk" 💀💀💀 https://t.co/X9t3P7hoCw
— JoJo97 - NEW ACCOUNT ELON HATES ME (@MajorMinority27) January 29, 2024

5. Quarterback

There is no more critical position in sport. Justin Fields improved the last seven games, though in smaller steps. If he returns, even if his improvement is at a similar pace it's still improvement and the quarterback improves offensive teammates as the player with the ball.

If it's Caleb Williams at QB it's possible they are talking about a step back while a rookie learns.

However, C.J. Stroud came in with a bad team last year and new coaching staff and led a turnaround to a playoff win.

Williams wouldn't be coming in to one of the worst teams as the Bears won seven games. It's an unusual situation for the first pick of the draft to be a quarterback and go to a team not among those in some major level of disrepair.

Stroud actually could find greater success as a result of playing with a team that improved its win total by four games to seven in 2023.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven